Fire Joe Torre Blog

It's Moving Time!

2006-12-30T20:39:00.000-05:00

The new blog is complete, so it's time to move.

I've enjoyed my time here at Fire Joe Torre. I sincerely believe that Joe Torre still needs to be fired (and I'm sure that you'll hear me rail him a few times a month), but the blog name is tired. I'd like to thank all of my loyal readers for their email, comments, and attentions.

The new blog is "Pinstripes Potentials" and is located at yankeeprospects.blogspot.com. All 37 prospect profiles have been moved over, and I have just posted the profile of Salvage Project Andy Cannizaro. Change your bookmarks!

EJ

Randy Johnson Trade

2006-12-29T09:53:00.000-05:00

I haven't weighed in on the Randy Johnson trade because it's been mostly rumor. For awhile it seemed like there was a decent market out there for Randy Johnson, as the Giants, Dodgers, Padres, and Dbacks were all interested. Yeah, I was crossing my fingers and hoping that some GM would be dumb enough to send us a Chad Tracy or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Unfortunately, we're not dealing with the Mariners or Nationals, and the Diamondbacks played it smart. Still, we heard a couple of names leak out this morning. Those names are Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings and Ross Ohlendorf. The Yankees want two of the three.

I don't know a whole lot about these guys, but I'd figure that I would give you my take. Ohlendorf is the most intriguing of the group. He has near-inhuman control of a low-90s fastball. He is a very smart guy out of Princeton, and pitched 182 innings last season. He's not going to strike a ton of people out, but he's going to be a successful major league starter with that kind of control. He just turned 24.

Nippert is the Dback's consensus top pitching prospect, although I'd rate Ohlendorf over him. He's a big tall college guy who turns 26 in May. He sports a career 3.30 minor league ERA with a hair less than a strikeout per inning and decent control. Problem is, he had a lot of problems at AAA in 2006 with an ERA of 4.87. Thing is, his peripherals (BB/9, HR/9, K/9) all remained solid, but his H/9 shot up. That screams of bad luck to me. Nippert should be considered near major league ready. He's a pitching prospect similar to Steve White.

Owings is also a pretty decent prospect. He was drafted three times by major league teams, but wanted to remain in college. The Dbacks got him in the 3rd round in 2005 (I wanted the Yankees to use their second round pick on him. We got J.B. Cox instead). He had a very nice little college career between competitive programs at Georgia Tech and Tulane. His Junior year saw his ERA fall to 3.24 and his BB/9 to 1.74. 2006 was his first full season in the minor leagues. He pitched 162 innings between AA and AAA, striking out 130 and walking 51. He posted an ERA of 2.91 at AA and 3.70 at AAA. I don't know what he throws, but I do know that he throws it hard. Owings is my favorite of the three. I really wanted him back in 2005. He is for all intents and purposes, major league ready.

I really can't see the Dbacks trading Owings for Randy Johnson. Owings could easily be better than the Big Unit next season. He'd fly to the top of our depth charts. I'll take any two of these guys for Randy, although I'd prefer to avoid Nippert.

Works in Progress: The New Site!

2006-12-28T11:10:00.000-05:00

I'm currently building the new blog site right now. It can be found at:

http://yankeeprospects.blogspot.com/

If you have any comments or suggestions about the new layout and look, post them here (Fire Torre site, not on the new site yet).

The new site will be launched once Haloscan releases it's new code for the blogger beta. I plan on moving over all 40ish prospect profiles to that site, and having this one forward you to the new one.

Comments on the new look would really help. I'm no artist.

Works in Progress: Daniel McCutchen

2006-12-26T15:52:00.000-05:00

Age: 24 (turned in September)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs
Drafted: 13th Round in 2006 out of the University of Oklahoma
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: McCutchen throws a pretty standard 92 mph fastball. It isn't particularly straight or live. He was throwing harder during his time in relief at Oklahoma, but settled in to the 92 mph range once he was converted to a starter. However, his breaking stuff is what really seperates him. I've been reading quote after quote of Big-12 hitters talking about being fooled by McCutchen's curve/split combination. Several hitters said "We just kept swinging at pitches in the dirt. We couldn't do anything about it". McCutchen's three different speeds really aid him in keeping hitters off balance.

Command: McCutchen's command was decent throughout college, walking about 1 batter every three innings. He projects to have average major league command and control if everything goes well. Typically, he spots his curveball better than his splitter. The difference in break between the two serves to keep hitters off balance a lot, getting him a lot of swings and misses.

Performance: McCutchen was a late bloomer. He started his college career in 2002 with division II Central Oklahoma. He transfered to the University of Oklahoma, but was forced to sit out in 2003. He spent 2004 and 2005 as a good-but-not-great reliever, and finally blossomed as a 5th year senior starting pitcher in 2006. Overall, he pitched 313 innings, striking out 329 and walking 96 in route to a 4.02 ERA. He pitched an impressive yet stressful 148 innings in 2006. Because of this, the Yankees only let him pitch more than 3 innings every five days once. Overall, he pitched 29 innings in 9 appearances, striking out 29 and walking 6. His ERA was a sparkling 1.86.

Health: Its all too good to be true right? A guy with a passable fastball and two good breaking pitches, no control problems, and a stellar start to his professional career? Daniel McCutchen was suspended for 50 games following a failed drug test in August. Update - Looks like I was acting on bad information. Dan's drug test was actually pretty benign. He tested positive for a prescription amphetamine.

2007 Outlook: McCutchen will likely be headed to Tampa. He's 24 years old and will have to move fast. I personally think that McCutchen will head back to the bullpen. He's proven to be very durable, but the Yankees won't have a whole lot of room for him in the future. He's blocked by a dozen pitchers higher in the pecking order.

Comparison: I really don't know. Steve Trachsel with a little more velocity.

My Take: I think that McCutchen is too good to be true. I think that he either had a hot couple of months or a juiced couple of months. He wasn't very good in college, despite good peripheral numbers. His upside is average, but he has only one season of more than 84 innings pitched under his belt. Still, he got great reviews from his peers in college, and could have made a simple mistake after entering professional baseball with performance enhancers. McCutchen's a smart guy - he made all-scholar teams - so maybe he'll be smart enough to rebound. He's going to be halfway to his 25th birthday by the time he returns from his steroid suspension. 50 games is really going to hurt him. Maybe I'll be wrong, but if I am McCutchen I would look for another career.

Can Wang Repeat?

2006-12-24T17:55:00.000-05:00

I've got a few free minutes, so I figure that I would address the subject of Chien-Ming Wang. I know that I promised a profile on Dan McCutchen, but that will have to wait. It takes me about an hour to write a profile, but considerably less to comment on a well known Yankee.

Chien-Ming Wang was excellent last season. He pitched 218 innings of 3.63 ERA ball, following a 116 inning, 4.02 ERA rookie season. Wang was, as THT puts it, the most democratic pitcher in the majors, striking out just 76 and walking 52. He was arguably the AL's 2nd best pitcher last season, and the BBWAA voted him 2nd in the AL for the Cy Young award.

Wang's season was historic. No pitcher in history has ever maintained strikeout rates this low and been this successful. In fact, according to that THT article, no pitcher has qualified for the ERA title in the past 15 years with a strikeout rate as low as Wang's 3.1. He compensates with ground balls, posting a 2.84 G/F ratio.

Wang is not the only groundball specialist in the majors. Derek Lowe posted an identical ERA of 3.63 with a 3.48 g/f ratio. Brandon Webb was probably the NL's best pitcher with a 3.10 ERA and g/f ratio of 3.64. However, Webb struck out 178 and Lowe struck out 123. Only really Aaron Cook posted extremely low strikeout rates, posting an ERA of 4.23 while striking out 92 in 212.2 innings, with a 2.59 G/F ratio.

But Aaron Cook managed a 4.24 ERA in the National League (Coors has become a fairly neutral park in recent years). Chien-Ming Wang has been much better. Why?

Wang doesn't have inhuman G/F ratios. He's very good, but nothing that we haven't seen before. Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb had comparable performances with better ratios. He doesn't have inhuman control, or completely erradicate the home run. The Yankees infield defense isn't nearly as good as the Dodgers' or the Dback's infield, or even the Rockies' infield. So, why is Wang so damn good?

It's hard to tell. It could be luck. Wang has only pitched a 330 major league innings, and could very well be playing over his head. Even so, after a slowish start to the season (His ERA eached 4.52 in the begining of June), Wang was very consistent month to month. He posted ERAs of 3.19, 3.03, 3.23, and 3.48 over the next four. For all intents and purposes, Wang was a legit Roy Halladay ace after he settling in. So what the hell is going on?

I don't have an answer. The common explanation from fans is that Wang throws harder than most sinkerballers. I think that velocity definately has something to do with it, but I Wang is far from the first power pitcher to throw a sinker. I think that sometimes pitchers have an inhuman talent that is impossible to explain, and that Wang's ability to induce weak groundballs is an inhuman talent. Maybe it is the hesitation in his wind up, maybe it is something about the sinker grip that Neil Allen taught him, or maybe he's just really good at throwing it.

How good can Wang be? I think that the jury is still out. Wang could very well regress to a Westbrook/Cook level of performance. My first instinct when thinking about this issue was that Wang would have a problem even recreating his 2006 performance. I've changed my mind. I think that Wang could very well put up entire season ERAs similar to those last four months that he pitched.

Wang has only been throwing his sinker for two years. Neil Allen taught it to him before the 2005 season in Columbus. I think that he's still a little bit rusty with it. Wang's ground balls are unusually weak, almost like Roy Hallday's. When he is inducing his weak ground balls, he is almost unbeatable. Most groundball pitchers allow a lot of runs when balls inevitably squeak through their defense. Wang's problems always seem to come out of the stretch. That's not news to Yankee fans. If the power of Wang's sinker comes not from it's sink but from his deceptive delivery, than his stretch move wouldn't have the same kind of sink. His problems with men on base may not be something that he can fix without some serious coaching.

Wang got better as the Yankee infield defense got better. Alex Rodriguez had a terrible first three months, but was decent after that. Robinson Cano started slow but blossomed into a superb defensive 2nd baseman, and although Jeter didn't have an excellent year, he was better in the 2nd half. Giambi also played less 1st base later in the season.

The Yankee infield was average last season. Phillips and Cano brought it way up, while Jeter, Giambi, and Alex Rodriguez brought it down. Early rumors have Alex Rodriguez dropping back down to the playing weight that he was at a few years ago, and the Yankees very clearly want a gloveman to replace Jason Giambi at first. Jeter was a pretty good defensive shortstop in 2004 and 2005, and is very capable of playing at least average defense. I think that if everything breaks his way, that Wang is capable of improving on his 2006 performance. I'd say that he is capable of putting up ERAs between 3.20 and 3.40.

Still, the true power of Chien-Ming Wang doesn't really lie in his ability to put up gaudy ERAs. Wang is a bonafide innnings eater. He pitched 218 innings in 2006, but he is capable of better. Joe Torre had Wang, in part due to prior shoulder problems, put Wang on a very short leash. Wang was allowed to throw over 100 pitches only eight times, regularly finishing his outings with 85-90 pitches thrown. He was the 3rd most economical pitcher in the majors, throwing just 14.01 per inning. (Btw, is anyone else amazed that Greg Maddux threw just 12 pitches per inning in 2001? Holy crap)

I think that Wang's true power lies in his ability to gobble up innings. Wang runs through batters like Maddux, Halladay, Webb, or Carpenter. All of those guys are 240+ inning per year threats. I think that as Wang proves that his shoulder is healthy, he will start posting inning counts in the 240 inning range. That means that Wang will average 7 innings per start - a considerable feat in today's offensive era. Even if his ERA is closer to 4.00 than 3.0o, he'll still be an incredible valueable pitcher. Baseball is a giant war of attrition, and starters who go the distance have value far beyond their run prevention. If you want an example of this, look at the inverse in Jaret Wright. He posted a decent ERA, but he hurt the team by leaving before the 6th inning most of the time.

Merry Christmas.

Don't Fear the Reaper

2006-12-24T09:39:00.000-05:00

I've heard a lot of speculation about the quality of the Red Sox team lately, both in the comments of this site and on other message boards. I've heard that the Red Sox are big favorites to win the AL East, that they will win 105 games, that they are favorites to win the World Series, that Matzusaka will win 21 games, that the Red Sox have a better hitting lineup than the Yankees, that the Yankees have no starting pitching, and that the Yankees have actually gotten worse this offseason. It's all crap.

The Red Sox won 87 games last season. They were worse than the White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Athletics, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Athletics. To make matters worse, they allowed 825 runs and scored 820 runs, which would normally ticket a team for 80 wins or so. The Red Sox were not a good team in 2006 by any standard.

Seeing this as an obvious problem, the Red Sox were buyers heading in to this offseason. They upgraded four positions - replacing Mark Loretta at 2nd with Dustin Pedroia, Alex Gonzalez at short with Julio Lugo, replacing Trot Nixon in right with J.D. Drew, and of course replacing a bunch of scrubs in the rotation with Matzusaka.

The Yankees have made some improvements themselves. Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu will play full seasons in pinstripes - a big upgrade over Bernie Williams, Bubba Crosby, Terence Long, and Melky Cabrera sharing that playing time. Jason Giambi will be moved to DH - where his bat could suffer but we'll save 15-20 runs on defense. Alex Rodriguez will most likely improve, while Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano will likely (although not certainly) get a little worse. I think that barring major injuries, our offense is at least as good as last year's, if not better. We scored 930 runs last year, and the Red Sox scored 820.

Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa should be effective additions to the starting rotation over Jaret Wright and the tandem of Aaron Small, Cory Lidle, Sidney Ponson, Jeff Karstens (who was actually pretty good), Darrell Rasner and Shawn Chacon, who combined for an ERA well over 5.50. They will be big improvements, which will help counteract the inevitable regressions by Mike Mussina (who still should be pretty good) and Chien Ming Wang. However, Randy Johnson (if he's healthy enough to pitch) will pitch better than he did last season (4.20-4.40 range). Overall, our starting staff is pretty good.

Our bullpen is as least as good as last year, and has the potential to be downright lethal. We have Mariano Rivera, enough said. I think that Kyle Farnsworth is better than his off year indicated. I predict that Farnsworth will give us 70 innings of low 3s, high 2s ERA work. Proctor probably will be a little worse (if he's able to shrug off the 100 inning workload at all - thank you Joe Torre), and Bruney certainly won't be as good. However, we should get some good work out of Britton, and we're losing Villone's 5.04 ERA. Our long relief should improve with Karstens or Rasner, and we always have Beam, Cox, and Kennard at AAA. And of course, none of this takes in to account what Phil Hughes could potentially do.

In sum, I think that our pitching has improved over last season. We allowed 767 runs last season, and Boston allowed 825. I think that we could easily cut 30-40 runs off that number, if not more.

If the Yankees are a 930-950 run scored and 720-740 run allowed team, we'll win 100 games at least. The question is: how much have the Red Sox improved?

Let's assume for a minute that Matzusaka exceeds expectations. Let's assume that he has a year roughly equal to C.C. Sabathia's 2006. He'll be worth about 60-70 runs. I don't think that Matzusaka is any better than what Mussina or Wang did in 2006, but I'll concede this one for the sake of an argument. Let's assume that Beckett improves to at least the league average, cutting another 10-20 runs off the Red Sox scoreboard. Then of course we have to take in to account Papelbon's move, because Papelbon was incredible last season. Even with him pitching more innings, I can't see Papelbon improving on his 92 runs created last season. He'll cancel out Beckett's improvements. Schilling is getting old and should also get a at least 10 runs or so worse. We'll even give Boston a general pitching improvement rating of +30 for all the little additions that I haven't thought of. Boston's defense is going to suffer a the loses of Nixon and Gonzalez, costing them a bare minimum of 15 runs. I think that I am being very generous, and Boston looks to improve by 55-85 runs allowed this season, which still isn't as good as the Yankees.

On offense, Boston would need to make up a lot of ground in order to beat the Yankees. Dustin Pedroia projects to be marginally better than Mark Loretta, maybe 5-10 runs. Drew will be a big improvement over Nixon/Pena/Hinske, about 30 runs. Julio Lugo wasn't very good last season, but he's still a 30 run improvement over Gonzalez. That comes out to 65-70 runs in improvement, which would make the Red Sox a 885-890 run team.

The result? The Yankees look like a 100 run team and the Red Sox like a 92-95 win team. If things break the Red Sox's way and the Yankees get unlucky, both teams could be looking at the 96-97 win range. If the luck evens out, it's no contest. And honestly, I haven't accounted for a lot of things that are in favor of the Yankees, including the potential play of Phil Hughes, gains off the Yankee bench, the regression of Wily Mo Pena, the injury history of J.D. Drew, the potential regression of Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell, and of course the significantly worse Boston bullpen. If I had to make a prediction today, I'd say that Boston wins 93 games and the Yankees win 100.

Next up: Work in Progress Daniel McCutchen.

Merry Christmas

2006-12-24T09:14:00.000-05:00

I hope you all have a family-filled and happy holiday. I've been so busy in preparation for the season that I have been unable to update this site. We will in fact be switching over to "Potential Pinstripes" before the New Year.

Sometime before the switch I will post my next profile on Work in Progress Daniel McCutchen.

I will also be addressing these (irrational) fears about the Red Sox additions that I've been hearing in a post later today.

Merry Christmas.

New Name - You Vote

2006-12-19T14:08:00.000-05:00

Yeah, it's probably time to rename the blog. From posts on this blog and talking to others, it has quickly become clear to me that the "Fire Joe Torre" name has run it's course. The focus of the blog has shifted from the days when I would list the amount of money left on Torre's contract to a more general Yankees/descriptive minor league type of content. So, I've narrowed the name of the blog down to two possibilities, with the help of the fine folks at the Yankee Pride Boards.

1. Cashman's Crops (or, alternatively, Cash's Crops, what do you guys think?)
2. Pinstripe Potentials (or, alternatively, Potential Pinstripes)

I'd like your input. Which is the better name? Should I trash the names in favor of something more broad? Thoughts?

Works in Progress: Justin Christian

2006-12-18T12:54:00.000-05:00

Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lbs
Drafted: Signed in 2004 out of Independent League River City
Position: 2b/CF
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

Tools: Justin Christian is fast. Very fast. Faster than a speeding bullet. Christian uses his speed to get on base, steal bases, and play excellent defense. The good news? He has a lot more than just speed! Most 80 speed guys would make Luis Castillo look like a slugger. Christian? Nope! He actually has an average amount of power. He has a short and compact swing that allows him to drive balls to all fields and put the ball in play. He projects to strike out only 70-75 times per season, which gives him plenty of opportunities to leg out ground balls. He used to play 2nd base, but a weak arm got him a ticket for centerfield, where his 80 speed was put to use. He is a plus defender at the position.

Performance: Christian was one of a half dozen signings that the Yankees found in independent leagues a few years ago. They did their scouting well, finding that Christian had overcome his college-day woes to become a lethal threat at the plate and on the basepaths. Christian hit .450/.518/.700 in 30 games for River City, which could get a lot of people's attention. He stole 26 games while only being caught twice. The Yankees sent Christian to Staten Island, where he put up an indifferent .274/.336/.438 line, with 14 stolen bases and 4 CS in 50 games. Christian would come in to his own in 2005, hitting .303/.366/.466 with 55 stolen bases, only 5 CS, and 11 home runs in 125 games between Tampa and Charleston. He was sent to Trenton this season, where he would meet his first stumbling block in his professional career, hitting .276/.341/.394 in 129 games. He started the season off very slow, hitting .253/.316/.330 in his first three months. However, Christian adjusted, hitting .287/.354/.379 in July and .321/.392/.554 in August. He stole 68 bases while being caught only 13 times.

Health: Christian had major rotator cuff problems in college, but he has since overcome his injury woes. In the prime of his life, Justin Christian is completely healthy.

2007 Outlook: Christian will be sent to Scranton, where he will be high on the Yankee's outfield depth charts. Christian will try to prove that his late-season adjustment to more advanced pitchers was for real. A good deal of his future will be determined by how much power is able to hit for in Scranton. If he can maintain a slugging percentage of about .400, he could very well be a valueable major league starting centerfielder. If it dips back down to the .350 or lower range, he may not be more than a 25th man.

Comparison: Scott Podsednik. I think that Christian's career path could very well mirror Podsednik's. When Podsednik is hitting well, taking his walks, and driving a few balls to the outfield, he is a very good player. When he's off by just a little, he is a glorified pinch runner who is a liability with the bat. We'll have a better idea about which version Justin will be by the middle of 2007.

My Take: I probably should have included Christian on my top-30 prospect list. I have never been a big fan of stolen bases as the primary weapon of a prospect, but I think that Christian brings something special to the table. There are two different kinds of stolen base threats in my mind. The first are 95% of speedsters out there; guys like Derek Jeter, Luis Castillo, Bobby Abreu, or Alfonso Soriano. These are very fast players who are good at picking up on a pitcher's move. They can steal 25-45 bases per year, but most of their stolen bases are stolen off the pitcher. If the pitcher isn't paying attention to them, they go. They are opportunistic. Then there are the 5% of speedsters who have the instincts and legs to steal a base when everybody knows that they are going. I'd say that Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, Dave Roberts, Corey Patterson, and Ichiro Suzuki are probably the only MLB players who meet this standard. Scott Podsednik did a few years ago, but not since he injured his hamstring in 2005. These are the guys who can really throw a team and a pitcher off every time that they are on the basepaths. I think that Christian has that kind of ability. He is part of an elite group of prospects. However, he also has the ability to get on base at an above average rate and drive enough balls to the outfield to leg out some doubles and triples. On top of it all, he plays plus defense. He probably won't ever get a chance to start without some sort of catastrophic injury, but he'll be a valueable bench player until age slows him down.

Yankee Fan Club Radio

2006-12-17T18:27:00.000-05:00

My interview with Ty and Uncle Joe on Yankee Fan Club Radio is currently airing. If you miss it, it is also available via podcast. These guys have an excellent radio show that I highly recommend.

Topics that we talked (the show was prerecorded) included Joe Torre, the proposed Melky Cabrera trade, Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard, Humberto Sanchez, Dellin Betances, Joba Chamberlain, Eric Duncan, and more.

I really didn't articulate why this blog is called the "Fire Joe Torre Blog" well. My long time readers know this, but the title of the blog is not designed to drum up interest (in fact, I wonder sometimes if it drives people away from the site). The origin of this blog was as a "voice of reason" against Joe Torre. However, I really enjoyed writing the blog throughout the season and I began to write about all things Yankees. My passion in baseball had always been the minor leagues, and I began to write periodic and general updates on the minor leagues, and enjoyed every second of it. When the offseason hit, I couldn't very easily keep writing soley about Torre and the MLB Yankees without getting repetitive, so I decided to start writing about Yankee prospects.

It took off from there. My readership ballooned. Clearly, my readers wanted to hear more about the Yankees, and so I shifted the focus of the blog.

I'd like to know what you think. Should I change the name of the blog? Should this blog be 90% minor leagues when the season starts? Should I keep it at 50/50 Minor/Minor leagues? What do you like about the blog in general? What do you dislike?

Thanks for reading. Next up: Work in Progress Justin Christian

Edit/Update - Blogger dumped my comments section when I upgraded the template. I'm working right now to restore Haloscan. Hopefully we don't lose all of the comments from previous posts. Stay tuned. 2nd Update - Reverted back to the old template. Comments should work again.

Works in Progress: Brett Smith

2006-12-15T15:49:00.000-05:00

Age: 23 (24 next August)
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220 lbs
Drafted: 2nd Round in 2004 out of the University of California-Irvine
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Smith throws a fastball around 90-93 with a little bit of tail sink when he is throwing it right, thanks to his height. When his mechanics get out of whack, it straightens out. His performance usually follows when his fastball straights out. He also uses his height to sink down a very effective 80 mph changeup, which has been his bread and butter since college. He left college with a decent slider and curveball, but he only throws the curveball right now. It's about the same speed as the changeup and gets him a few strikeouts, although it's an average pitch. Smith pitches to contact and induces a decent amount of ground balls (1.66 g/f in 2006).

Command: Brett Smith has average control and command. He lives at the knees. His deceptive height and sinking arsenal keep batters from teeing off on his 90 mph fastball, but also lead to about 3 walks per 9 innings. He keeps his pitch count down by pitching to contact, but that also makes him very hittable.

Health: One of Smith's big assets is his superb health record. He pitched two 100+ inning seasons in college and then has followed it up with two 140+ inning seasons in the minors. At 23, Smith has passed the period in his career where arm injuries develop. I put a lot of stock in a healthy pitcher.

Performance: Smith had a very good college career, culminating with a 2.54 ERA junior year where he struck out 113 in 113 innings. He earned himself a 2nd round draft pick, but didn't sign until after the 2004 season was over. He spent 2004 between Tampa and Charleston, where he combined for an ERA of 4.67. It wasn't an entirely unsucessful year, as he managed to strike out 95 and walk just 31 in 140.2 innings. The strikeouts weren't encouraging, but the Yankees bet that they would eventually come. His control had actually improved since college. Smith spent all of 2006 in Tampa, where he had a pretty good year. He led the league in innings with 158 and was 5th in strikeouts with 119. However, his control went from excellent to average with 56 walks. His ERA was good at 3.81, but that may be decieving. Smith struggled at home, posting a 4.85 ERA. His ERA was 3.01 away from home. I really don't think that the ballpark was the reason behind this, but it is a plausible theory. Smith's mechanical problems may have surfaced in front of the home crowd. My guess is that it was just dumb luck that his problems happened to occur at home.

Comparison: It's a hard one, but I'd say Jon Garland when the year isn't 2005. Garland is a tall pitcher who creates a lot of sink, pitching to contact and eating innings. Garland relies more on a breaking pitch than Smith, but besides that they are very similar pitchers.

My Take: I'm not sure what to think about Smith. I think that he won't survive the major leagues with a WHIP of 1.40. He walks a few too many. If he can get his walks down from the 60-70 range and back in to the 45-55 range, I think that he'll manage to eat innings at the major league level. He's still only 23 years old and will get a crack at Trenton in 2007. I think that Smith will either be a 7th starter in the Yankee organization or a 5th starter on someone else's team. There are just too many higher ceiling arms in front of him. Still, a young innings eater will have value to the major league team. He should be ready for a trade or call up by the time he turns 25, in August of 2008. I think that he is a fairly safe bet to at least be some kind of below average major league starter.

Apology

2006-12-13T10:44:00.000-05:00

I must apologize for the lack of updates on this site. Usually I'm dedicated to adding something meaningful every day. Unfortunately, I'm about to go take my second of four final exams. Hang in there. I will have a profile of the Work in Progress Brett Smith up by the weekend.

Kind of Cool

2006-12-12T17:25:00.000-05:00

I will be appearing on the weekly broadcast of http://www.yankeefanclubradio.com/ on Sunday, December 17th between 6 and 7 PM. We will be discussing this blog and the Yankee minor league system.

The radio broadcast has seen people like John Sterling, Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal, Alan Schwarz, Ken Davidoff, and several coaches from the Yankee organization appear on it's airwaves. The broadcast is also available via podcast.

Needless to say, I am excited for this opportunity.

Up and Coming: Gerardo Rodriguez

2006-12-10T21:07:00.000-05:00

Age: 19
Height: 6'1"
Height: 195 lbs
Drafted: Signed as an international free agent in 2005
Position: 1st Base
Throws: Right
Bats: Right

Tools: Rodriguez is very, very raw, but he can hit. He's so raw that there isn't a whole lot of scouting information on him, but he is reputed to be talented. He's no base stealer, but he is athletic enough. He should be able to hold down 1st base fairly well once he adjusts to the position. Rodriguez used to be a catcher, but for some reason (I don't have any reports on his defensive abilities) he was switched to 1st base. His main tool is power. Reports are slim, but Rodriguez may be a 60 power guy. He really good at getting the ball in the air, which will keep his average up a lot of strikeouts.

Performance: Rodriguez is very young, and because of that he has played only one season in the minor leagues. He hit what is at first glance an unimpressive .285/.342/.445 line. However, one must adjust for context. Minorleaguesplits.com lits his park adjusted line at .321/.375/.496. The Gulf Coast League is probably the hardest in baseball to find power, both because of enviromental factors and the youth of the prospects involved. Rodriguez also hit for significantly more power when away from his home park. Regardless, Rodriguez was likely the best position player on the team. However, he does have his weaknesses. Rodriguez struck out quite a bit, King 34 times in 38 games.

Health: Gerardo is too young to say anything substantial about his health.

2007 Outlook: Gerardo impressed a lot of people in 2006. He hit 3 home runs and 13 doubles in 2006, which is equal to 55 doubles and 13 home runs during a full 162 game season. He'll head to Charleston to try and turn some of those doubles in to long bombs. Now that he is playing 1st instead of catcher, he can concentrate on hitting. He'll be able to put on some more muscle. He'll learn the new position. He is ticketed for Charleston. He could very well be in Tampa by year's end.

Comparison: Damned if I know. I guess I could see some of Nick Swisher in Rodriguez, but who knows at this point.

My Take: There is precious little information about Rodriguez available. He's a young player who is very well thought of by the Yankees. He is a 1st baseman with tons of power. He had a great season in the Gulf Coast League. He won't turn 20 until next October. Honestly, there isn't a whole lot to go on. I did not include him in my top 50 because of his lack of a a minor league pedigree. He could very well run up the charts next year. My prediction? 25+ home runs and 35+ doubles next season. As a 1st baseman, he'll have to put up those kinds of numbers.

Andy Pettitte

2006-12-09T12:04:00.000-05:00

Did anyone expect Andy Pettitte to land a 16 million dollar contract two months ago? I certainly did not. Of course, I didn't envision Ted Lilly being paid more than Mariano Rivera either.

The contract with Pettitte is a 1 year deal with a player option for the same amount in 2008. Pettitte reportedly has a gentleman's agreement with Cashman not to exercise his option if he is injured.

I like the Pettitte signing, a lot. If Pettitte is healthy, he is an effective pitcher. A very effective pitcher. Of course, health is a problem.

SG over at RLYW posted an excellent projection for Pettitte next year. He predicts 194 innings, a 4.30 ERA, and 31 starts for Pettitte.

I think that Andy is capable of better, but that is a pretty safe prediction. A 4.30 ERA may not sound great, because it isn't, but it is above average. Hell, that might be 18 win stuff with the Yankee's offense.

Any short term deal is a good deal for the Yankees right now. We won't need these expensive, barely above average free agents in a couple of years. For now, Pettitte will pitch in to the 7th and 8th innings for the most part every 5th day and keep the Yankees in the game. It's easy to forget that Andy is only 34 years old.

What does this deal mean? Well, it means one of a few things. Pavano could be gone (the likely conclusion at this point). Randy Johnson could be injured worse than we think. Or, more likely, the Yankees just don't trust their farm to step in to the 5th starter role. Our starting rotation will probably look like this on April 1st:

Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Kei Igawa
Randy Johnson (He'll miss a few starts, but a 5th starter won't be needed for a few weeks)

Those are five guys (maybe except for Randy Johnson) who are all pretty good bets to put up ERAs between 3.80 and 4.30, and a lot of innings. All things considered, that's pretty good.

There have been talks about sending Pavano to Colorado, Pittsburgh, and San Franscisco. I think that if we subsidize his contract a little bit, Pavano will be a nice little trading chip. I mean, Jason Marquis just got a payout larger than what is remaining on Pavano's contract.

At this point, it's impossible to determine what the bullpen will look like, but my best guess is:

Mariano Rivera, 1.80 ERA
Kyle Farnsworth, 4.36 ERA
Chris Britton (although he has options, I am betting that he stays in the majors)
Scott Proctor, 3.52 ERA
Mike Myers, 3.23 ERA
Damaso Marte (rumored trade for Kevin Thompson), 3.70 ERA
Darrell Rasner (long relief), 4.43 ERA

Jeff Karstens, who still has plenty of options, will be sent down to Scranton while Brian Bruney will be traded away. I included their 2006 ERAs to point out how effective this bullpen would probably be. I think that Farnsworth and Britton are also better than their 2006 ERAs.

Pitching in Scranton will be:

Phil Hughes (first call up)
Humberto Sanchez
Jeff Karstens
Steve White
Tyler Clippard

J.B. Cox
T.J. Beam
Jose Veras
Jeff Kennard
Sean Henn (if he clears waivers)
Charlie Manning
Justin Pope
Colter Bean (although the Yankees have him starting lately)

I think that this is going to be a big season for New York Yankee pitching. Why? Last year we were pretty good - in the top third of the majors. However, we lost a lot of runs to guys like Shawn Chacon (7.00 ERA), Tanyon Sturtze (7.59 ERA), Octavio Dotel (10.80 ERA), Ron Villone (5.01 ERA), Aaron Small (8.46 ERA), Sidney Ponson (10.47 ERA), T.J. Beam (8.50 ERA, he'll improve), Kris Wilson (8.64 ERA), and Scott Erickson (7.94 ERA). Joe Torre somehow let those guys combine to pitch 165 innings! It wasn't entirely his fault, because the organization had few average depth guys for him to work with (although he failed to use guys like Jose Veras and Colter Bean, who could no doubt be better than these scrubs). Instead of Sidney Ponson and Kris Wilson, we have a near-endless group of good prospects to take the reigns. I really believe that Sanchez, Hughes, Cox, and maybe even Beam could step in almost immediately and be better than anyone on the staff other than Mariano Rivera.

Tomorrow I profile the 19 year-old 1st baseman Geraldo Rodriguez.

Work in Progress: P.J. Pilittere

2006-12-07T12:12:00.000-05:00

Age: 25 (just turned)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 13th Round in 2004 out of Cal State University
Position: Catcher
Hits: Right

Tools: No one is going to confuse Pilittere with a supreme athlete. He isn't fast. He doesn't have a particularly strong arm. His bat isn't great. He has gap power at best. Pilittere is the rare baseball player who may drill out a career for himself with his final tool - his mind. Granted, there is no way for me to independently varify if the reports about Pilittere's mental abilities are true, but there does seem to be a general consensus: P.J. has a strategic mind. It has benefitted him at the plate despite his lack of physical gifts and talent, and it has helped him in handling pitchers. Every publication that is available to me raves about how he makes pitchers better. Again, this isn't something that I can verify.

Performance: P.J. was on a couple of radars as a future no-hit backup catcher. Unfortunately, the knock against him was that he lacked any incredible defensive skills - he is above average behind the plate at best. He didn't hit much - .215/.252/.264 and .250/.320/.381 at Staten Island between 2004 and 2005. Since he was getting old, and the Yankees were incredibly thin on catchers (and still are), P.J. was pushed to Tampa, which it turns out was a good move. P.J. hit .302/.355/.412 in his first full season of professional ball, striking out 24 times and walking 20 times in 291 at bats. He showed decent power with 5 home runs, 2 triples and 14 doubles, and recieved boatloads of praise from Tampa pitchers. The Yankees, probably with the intent of rushing him to a backup position in 2008, decided to send him to Arizona to get more playing time against tougher competition. P.J. responded to the challenge, hitting .394/.444/.545 in a very small sample of 33 at bats (Catchers always recieve sparse playing time in the AFL). He hit 1 home run, 2 doubles, walked three times and struck out 5 times. For 2006, that brings his final line to .311/.366/.429. He also hit .373 with RISP. Everything considered, that is a pretty good line.

Health: Pilittere has never had any health problems. He's a pretty average sized catcher and shouldn't have any age or weight related concerns in the near future.

Comparison: I was tempted to say Joe Girardi at first, but I thought about it and the two don't really resemble one another. P.J. has a little more bat, while Joe was better behind the plate and was more athletic. Brad Ausmus is a better comparison. I'm not sure that Pilittere will start as many games as Ausmus, but their levels of performance will be fairly similar.

My Take: I'm not sure what to make of Pilittere. He's no doubt the only decent Yankee catcher who has played higher than Charleston. He has the abilities to be some kind of major league backup one day, in part due to having a marginally better bat than the Wil Nieves/Sal Fasano brand of catchers. He might have a short prime period where he can be an average starting catcher. I can see a lot of .270/.340/.380 lines in his future, which isn't totally unacceptable for your catcher. We'll see how he handles the high minor leagues, as his AFL line is too small of a sample to really tell much. He's got the reputation for a fierce leader and near player-coach. If he fails as a prospect, we might see him resurface as a minor league manager or scout within the organization.

Salvage Projects: Matt DeSalvo

2006-12-05T20:11:00.000-05:00

Age: 26 (just turned)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 170 lbs
Drafted: Undrafted Free Agent in 2003 out of Marietta College (Division III)
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: DeSalvo is a weird pitcher. He throws a 92-93 sinking fastball. He's 26 years old. He's got a small frame. Why is he still a prospect? Because he throws every other pitch in the book! He throws a changeup, curveball, slider, forkball, 4-seamer and 2-seamer. Only the changeup is a particularly good pitch (It's up there with Marquez's), but the other pitches are all servicable. He uses the changeup to strike people out.

Command: He has trouble repeating his mechanics with his fastball, leading to a lot of walks. Even when his mechanics are on, he likes to work outside of the strike zone, leading to more walks. He kept them in control throughout 2003, 2004, and 2005, only posting sub-standard ERAs when his back was injured. What happened in 2006? DeSalvo started in AAA and posted a 7.58 ERA, walking 34 in 38 innings. He walked 59 in 78 innings after returning to AA. DeSalvo is a smart guy who often gets made fun of by his teammates for reading books all day. Even if his career in baseball doesn't work out, DeSalvo will probably find some sort of job as a biologist.

Health: Besides the brief back injury in 2004, DeSalvo has a clean bill of health. At 26 years old, his arm is fully developed and capable of handling big innings. There has been speculation of a recent injury in 2006, but no word of injury has surfaced. I'll offer my explanation for the problems later.

Performance: DeSalvo set huge strikeout records while playing Division III ball, holding both the single season and overall strikeout records (205 and 603). He actually spent 5 years in college, as he was forced to sit out one year. He didn't get a lot of attention at the draft, and the Yankees got him without having to use a pick. He proceded to blow away the low minor leagues, posting ERAs of 1.84, 0.82, and 1.43 in his first three stops in all three A ball leagues. He came down with a back injury shortly after being promoted to AA in 2004, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in 27 innings. DeSalvo jumped on to prospect radar screens in 2005, when he dominated AA with an ERA of 3.02, striking out 151 in 149 innings. He walked about 4 per 9 however. He was 24 years old and it seemed like he was on the verge of breaking out in to the majors. The Yankees put him on the 40-man and invited him to the major league spring training. He was excellent, leading many (including myself) to advocate his inclusion on the big league roster. It was assumed that he would be the first call up when someone went down with an injury. Unfortunately, something happened. We don't really know what. His control evaded him. His velocity dropped. He just couldn't repeat his delivery. He had an ERA for the season over 6.00, and all of the sudden his big league future seems up in the air as guys like Phil Hughes and Tyler Clippard surpassed him.

Comparison: David Cone. They are both very smart guys who would throw any pitch to a hitter at any time. They both have similar body types. If DeSalvo had been drafted out of High School, they might have followed similar career paths. The Yankees will continue to try to get something out of DeSalvo despite the struggles because he has the potential to be a lesser Cone. He isn't a low-ceiling prospect.

Outlook: DeSalvo will probably head to Trenton again in 2007. He's way behind in the depth charts now, which may put addititonal pressure on him. A good start may see him included in a trade. If he doesn't recover his stride, he risks being labeled as a career minor leaguer.

My Take: I liked DeSalvo a lot entering this season, but I made the mistake of ignoring his walk rate. He's definately got a lot of strikeouts in him, but he can't put so many people on base. He's already succeeded in the high minor leagues, so I think we can discount 2006 as any kind of statement on his baseball abilities. Two things went wrong for DeSalvo. First off, the Yankees messed with his mechanics. They were trying to get some more velocity and control out of Matt by simplifying his delivery. Why they made the decision to change a successful pitcher's approach at 25 years old is beyond me. Beyond that, the DeSalvo suffered from unspecified "mental problems" throughout the season. What could they be? They could come from an emotional let down after not making the roster in Spring Training, or he could be having girl problems or something. I'm not going to pretend that I know what his problems are. 26 isn't too old for a prospect, but 27 is. If he's not in AAA by the end of the year, DeSalvo is in trouble. He's taking up a spot on the 40 man roster and could find himself on waivers. If he does succeed, he's certainly capable of a 3.80-4.20 ERA range. He'll be fun to watch too.

Works in Progress: Chase Wright

2006-12-02T20:51:00.000-05:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs
Drafted: 3rd Round in 2001 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Left

Stuff: Wright used to throw a lot harder, but right now he throws an 89-91 mph two seam fastball. He throws it from a very deceptive three-quarter angle. The fastball has a lot of movement to it and he uses it to get a significant amount of ground ball outs. He also throws a decent changeup, at about 78-80 mph. The changeup has a surprising amount of sink to it which is his go-to pitch. Wright has been trying everything he possibly can to find some sort of successful breaking pitch. He has tried throwing both a conventional 12-6 77-78 mph curveball and a much slower 70 mph loopy curve. Neither has worked with any success.

Command: Wright will never walk people like Carlos Silva. He has average control at best, although he has learned a thing or two about pitching. He constantly pounds the bottom of the strike zone with his two seamer, without a ton of precision. When he misses, he misses out of the zone. He is going to walk 3-4 per 9 innings in the major leagues, which will limit his utility. That said, he manages to get by despite his command problems.

Health: Wright struggled to stay healthy almost immediately after being drafted. He was not able to pitch more than 100 innings from 2002 until 2005. Part of that was ineffectiveness, but Wright suffered from a series of minor growing pains (the kind of thing that are more the norm than completely healthy seasons for young pitchers). His command was significantly worse than present during this time, which prevented him from putting together any effective innings in the lower A ball leagues. His velocity started north of 93 and ended where it presently is today.

Performance: After these years of terrible play, Wright was still a sleeper pick on a lot of people's radars. Lefties get a lot of chances, and Wright still had the stuff to show promise. He put together a decent campaign in Charleston in 2005, posting an ERA of 3.75 in 144 innings. He struck out 110 and walked 69. Wright had found himself a nitch. He allowed a lot of guys to get on base, but was able to succeed by showing an uncanny ability to prevent the extra base hit. His high walk rate prevented him from winning a spot in the crowded Tampa rotation, so Chase was moved to the bullpen. He pitched excellent, posting a 2.53 ERA in 32 innings through June. He then moved back to the bullpen when the demotion of Zach Kroenke opened up a spot. He then did something very special: he posted an ERA of 1.64 in his next 87.2 innings. For the season he struck out 100 while walking 42 in 119.2 innings on the season. Due to this performance, the Yankees could not hide him from the Rule V draft anymore, and he was added to the 40 man roster a few weeks ago.

Comparison: I have never seen a pitcher who fits his description. Maybe you guys can help me out. Bruce Chen doesn't throw a 2 seamer, but he seems as close as it gets.

Outlook: Wright will head to Trenton, where his two pitch combination will be tested by more advanced hitters. From there, he could very well enter the Yankee depth charts in terms of both starting pitching and the major league bullpen.

My Take: Wright is certainly interesting. He didn't miss my top 30 list by much. I am not at all convinced that Wright can remain a starter in the big leagues. He's a lefty, but he has no sort of breaking pitch and walks a ton of batters. That said, I think that he could very well carve out a little niche for himself. He killed lefties in 2006, getting Chien-Ming Wang-like ground ball results (over 3 per air out) and over a strikeout per inning agains them (29 in 24.2 innings against lefties). He gets righties out, but destroys lefties. Left handed starting pitching is a rarity (especially in the Yankee system), so the Yankees may resist the change. His 2007 will determine a lot.

Bernie Williams, 25 Men, and Newsday

2006-12-01T12:16:00.000-05:00

I'm about to leave for the weekend (well, I'll be back late tomorrow), and so I'd like to talk a little bit about the actual New York Yankees. Yes, I still do that sometimes. Don't worry, coming sometime on Sunday will be the prospect profile for sleeper pick Work in Progress Chase Wright.

There has been a lot of debate recently about Bernie Williams. Bernie hit .281/.332/.436 last season in 453 plate appearances. He was actually marginally useful, mostly because he hit lefties to a .323/.387/.549 clip. Conversely, he couldn't touch a right handed pitcher.

I think that before we tackle the question of "Should we resign Bernie?", we need to examine what role Bernie would play on this team. Baseball is unique in that it takes a large team of good players to win games. It's not like basketball where a Michael Jordan or Shaq can dominate a game and play 90% of it. It's not even a game like hockey where Martin Brodeur can win game after game all by himself even if his team can't score or play defense. The best batters get only about 1/9 of the playing time, the best fielders see about 1/7 of balls in play, and the best pitchers only pitch about 220 innings. It is a game that requires a lot of roster depth in order to win.

Every team needs 5 starting pitcher and 9 everyday players. In addition, modern teams usually require a long man, a setup man, a closer, and at least two general middle-inning relievers. Teams need a backup catcher, extra outfielder, and usually two extra infielders at bare minimum. This leaves just two spots open for additional players on the 25 man roster. These players are usually very specialized. A team will throw in a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Sometimes a team will throw in an immobile big bat to use off the bench. A team will sometimes employ a left handed specialist who can do little else. These extra one or two spots will be used very little during the season, but their specialized role could make or break a a big game situation.

Bernie Williams would be a 25th man. He can't play suitable defense anywhere in the field. He can't hit righties. He can't run the bases well. If he were to play in the majors in 2007, the only productive way he could do so would be as a pinch hitter or platoon hitter against a left hander. He wouldn't be useful for more than 100 plate appearances or so.

Problem is, already have a 25th man. His name is Mike Myers. Myers is good for a batter or two, but that is it. He'll max out at 40 innings. There is room for him on a 25 man roster, just not a whole lot of room. They cannot both be included on the same roster.

The Yankees already have a closer, setup man, three middle relievers (Proctor, Bruney, Britton), a long man (One of Karstens or Rasner) and a left handed specialist (Myers). They are going to have a backup catcher, Melky Cabrera, Miguel Cairo or a similar backup infielder, and Andy Phillips or another backup first baseman on the bench. The roster is full.

Of course, I would rather Kevin Thompson be on the roster, but we'll forget that for now. Problem is, Newsday is now reporting that the Yankees are thinking about carrying 13 pitchers. This would mean a bench of (probably) Andy Phillips, Miguel Cairo (or someone like him), and a backup catcher to go along with a bullpen of Rivera, Farnsworth, Proctor, Bruney, Britton, Myers, Karstens/Rasner, and probably another lefty like Ron Villone. This is ridiculous.

Newsday cites Yankee concerns for the workload of key relievers. God damn it! Why can every other major league team get along with 11 or maybe 12 pitchers? Why does a bullpen with Mariano Rivera need 12 more people to help him out? Want to know why? Because Joe Torre doesn't have a clue. He has worn out Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill, Ron Villone, Steve Karsay, and maybe Scott Proctor (word is he may be switching to starter due to elbow problems). He almost wore out Mariano Rivera back in 1996. Why does he need 13 pitchers? Because he doesn't have the strategic mind to use his bench players?

Hell, Joe Torre doesn't use his 12 pitchers. Mike Myers went for two or three week stretches without being used. Octavio Dotel never got a chance to try and work himself back in to form, despite an 8+ game lead. Joe Torre uses four people in the bullpen. He uses his favorite lefty, Mariano Rivera (but only in very select situations. I mean, why would you want to use Mariano when the game is on the line in the 7th and 8th innings?), his setup guy (who he will put Mariano-like trust in, because "that's his inning"), and his annual abused righty. Thats it. Everybody else sits and watches.

If the Yankees wanted to change the way that modern baseball strategy works, then 13 pitchers wouldn't neccessarily be a bad idea. I've had some theories in the past about different ways to use the bullpen. However, I'd wager my laptop that Joe Torre isn't planning some sort of redefinition of the way we see relief pitching. He just wants an additional crutch to lean against.

Have a good weekend.

Top 30 Prospects list

2006-11-29T12:58:00.000-05:00

1. Phil Hughes (SP, 20, AA)
2. Jose Tabata (OF, 18, A-)
3. Joba Chamberlain (SP, 22, A+)
4. Tyler Clippard (SP, 21, AA)
5. Dellin Betances (SP, 18, Rk)
5a. Humberto Sanchez (SP, 23, AAA)*
6. J.B. Cox (RP, 22, AA)
7. Ian Kennedy (SP, 22, A+)
8. Christian Garcia (SP, 20, A+)
9. Jesus Montero (C, 16, Rk)
10. Eric Duncan (3b, 21, AA)
11. Austin Jackson (CF, 19, A-)
12. Jeff Marquez (SP, 22, A+)
13. Brett Gardner (CF, 23, AA)
14. T.J. Beam (RP, 26, AAA)
15. Steve White (SP, 24, AAA)
16. Marcos Vechinoacci (3b, 20, A-)
17. Mark Melancon (RP, 21, A+)**
17a. Kevin Whelan (RP, 22, A+)*
18. Jeff Karstens (SP, 24, MLB)
19. Angel Reyes (LHSP, 19, Rk/A-)
20. George Kontos (SP, 21, SS/A-)
21. Zach McAllister (SP, 18, Rk)
22. Tim Norton (SP, 23, SS/A-)
23. Colin Curtis (CF, 21, SS/A-)
24. Mitchill Hilligoss (3b/SS, 21, SS/A-)
25. Cody Ehlers (1b, 24, A+)
26. Tim Battle (OF, 20, A-)
27. Francisco Castillo (SP, 20, A-)
28. David Robertson (RP, 21, NCAA)
29. Bronson Sardinha (OF, 23, AAA)
30. Alan Horne (SP, 23, A+)

* - Traded after initial rankings
** - Injured after initial rankings

(This post will be available on the side bar for your convienent reference)

*Note* - This is not the end of prospect profiles at Fire Joe Torre! On the horizon will the following series of profiles:

Works in Progress - Prospects in Tampa, Trenton, and Columbus who are starting to get a little long in the tooth but still have the possibility of a productive major league career.

Up and Coming - Guys who were too young to make the top 30 list, but could very well break out next season and become top-30 guys.

Salvage Projects - Guys whose potential major league careers have imploded due to injury or ineffectiveness but still may have a comeback left in them.

Prospect Profile: Phil Hughes (#1)

2006-11-29T11:41:00.000-05:00

Age: 20
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220 lbs
Drafted: 1st Round in 2004 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Hughes would be an effective pitcher with a 90 mph fastball. That said, Phil Hughes is going to be more than an effective pitcher. He is capable of throwing 96-97 mph, but prefers to sit comfortably at 93-94 or 94-95 on a good day in order to command it better. That said, he is capable of reaching back and throwing a located fastball at 97 if the situation commands it. He locates his fastball with the best of them. Think Curt Schilling as a comparison for the fastball.

Curveball: Two years ago, Hughes did not throw a curveball. Maybe he knew how to toss one on the side in the backyard, but he couldn't throw it in a game. What happened? Nardi Contreras told him to shelf his slider and use a curveball instead. What did Phil Hughes do? He almost immediately began to throw one of the best if not the best curveball in the minor leagues. It is a deadly strikeout weapon that lands on it's spot every time, with a solid 1-7 break.

Changeup: When Hughes made the decision to not throw his plus slider and instead focus all of his breaking effort on the curveball, it quickly became clear that he would need a 3rd pitch. Enter the changeup. He throws a 78-79 mph changeup fairly well, although it is not as developed as his other pitches. That will change. The Yankees put him on a constant diet of changeups throughout the 2006 season, forcing him to throw it as often as his curveball. It worked. He is still a step away from throwing the changeup in any situation (he goes to his curve with men on), but he is getting a better feel for it. Hughes would benefit from a few innings in AAA to finally nail it down without the big league pressure on him. Right now it will sometimes make hitters look foolish or sometimes fall way out of the strike zone. If Hughes' track record is at all predictive, expect him to throw it as well as he does his fastball.

Slider: While he still occassionally throws it on the side, Hughes does not throw his slider in games anymore. It used to be his signature pitch, but he has taken so well to the curveball that the Yankees see no reason to throw both. Hughes himself says that he struggles to command two different breaking balls at once.

Command: Lots of pitchers have a 65 fastball, 70 curveball, and 60 changeup. Phil Hughes compliment them with 70 control. He can put his fastball and curveball wherever he wants, in any count, without fail. He barely walks anyone. He barely leaves anything on the broader part of the plate for the home run. If a ball bounces in the dirt, he meant to do it. He has a career BB/9 ratio of 2.05 (which is roughly Mike Mussina level). He is a smart pitcher who always thinks one step ahead of the batter.

Performance: Few pitchers excell in the minor leagues to the extent that Phil Hughes has. Simply put, he has out classed his competition. He was drafted in 2004, but the Yankees decided to play it safe with their new jewel (he missed time with a stubbed toe) and only allowed him to pitch 5 innings in the GCL, where he didn't allow a run and struck out 8. An omen of things to come? Yes. He started 2005 in Charleston, where he would spend his last moments under the radar. Hughes and his new curveball showed the 19 year olds in A ball who was boss, pitching 68.2 innings to a 1.97 ERA, striking out 72 and walking 16 (and allowing just 1 HR). He earned a promotion to Tampa, where he pitched the worst baseball of his career - throwing 17.2 innings of 3.06 ERA ball, striking out 21 and walking 4 before being shut down with mild shoulder soreness. Prospect watchers, including myself, got very worried for a moment. However, word leaked out during the offseason that Hughes had simply hit the Yankee's prefered inning count for the season and was going to be shut down regardless of injury concerns.

Hughes made just about everyone's top prospect lists after this, finding himself anywhere from the 20s to the 40s. Baseball Prospectus predicted that Hughes would have a huge 2006 with their PECOTA projection system, saying that Hughes was the second most major league ready starter in the minors, to Liriano. It was predicted that Hughes could be called up from 17 innings in Tampa and post a 3.80 ERA. Hughes did indeed have a huge 2006, which most of you probably know about. He dismantled A+ ball, but struggled for a few starts in Trenton (as can be expected from a guy who had not yet turned 20). He posted a 3.99 ERA in May, which certainly startled people. Hughes then did his normal thing: adjustment. He posted an ERA of 1.29 in his final 10 starts, striking out 71 in 48.2 innings while walking 11 and not allowing a single home run. He finished the year with a single playoff start against Portland, pitching 6 innings (his leash on innings was loosened for the playoffs) while striking out 13 and walking one and allowing one earned run. His totals for the entire minor league season and playoffs were 152 innings, 182 strikouts, 35 walks, 5 home runs allowed and a 2.13 ERA. He could have pitched more innings (he rolled through batters without effort), but the Yankees kept him on a 5 inning limit for much of the season.

Health: There were concerns about Hughes' health coming in to this season. There are no longer any concerns. It became very clear that the concerns were simply the Yankees being extremely cautious with their golden arm. They have succeeded in keeping his innings at exactly where they wanted - around 100 innings in 2005 and 150 in 2006. He should be ready for 200 in 2007. There is no reason to be concerned about his health.

Ceiling: None. None at all. Hughes has the ability to be a once in a lifetime pitcher. He has the ability to be the best pitcher in the major leagues. There is nothing stopping him. There is nothing more than I can say. He won't put up Pedro Martinez 1999-2000 numbers, but besides that you can compare him to any rookie phenom that has come up and dominated in recent years. Jorge Posada said that Hughes has a better arm than anyone on the Yankees - including guys like Mariano Rivera and Randy Johnson.

Reaching Ceiling: He's nearly there. Hughes made AA hiters look like they should go back to little league. By the time he adjusted to the level, it was almost too easy for him. Minor league hitters are too easy for him. He has everything that you could possibly ask of a prospect, and he has been expertly handled by the organization.

Comparison: A healthy Mark Prior. I used the same comparison for Betances, but I need to draw a distinction. If Betances overcomes the traditional obstacles associated with any minor league pitcher drafted out of High School, he can top out at Mark Prior's level and style. Phil Hughes has indeed overcomed those obstacles and has found himself at the brink of the major leagues with Mark Prior-like performance levels and almost the exact same pitching style. They both had 95 mph fastballs. They both located their fastballs with Mussina-like precision. They both had filthy curveballs. They both throw a similar changeup. Prior posted a 2.43 ERA in 211 innings in 2003 at age 22. Hughes is capable of the same. Hopefully he will not be cursed with the same injuries (which the Yankees have done their best to prevent).

My Take: Tyler Clippard has his control. Ian Kennedy has his brain. Joba Chamberlain has his power. Christian Garcia has his curveball. Jeff Marquez has his changeup. Phil Hughes has it all. I have never seen a pitcher without a weakness in the minor leagues before I saw Phil Hughes. Usually power pitchers have a lack of control, or control pitchers lack power, or power pitchers with control lack secondary pitches, or they have injury issues, or they are 25 before they figure everything out, or they are inconsistent. Hughes has no weakness. All of his numbers would be phenominal if he was 24 years old, but Hughes put up these K/BBs, K/9s, BB/9s and ERAs as a 19/20 year old in AA. We're looking at something special folks, and he could be the ace of a new dynasty. Hughes has it all, and we're going to see that first hand when he gets called up in 2007.

Kei Igawa

2006-11-28T21:26:00.000-05:00

Looks like we won the bid on Japan's lefty Kei Igawa. It took 26 million dollars.

I'm not a big fan of bringing pitchers over from Japan. However, this is not neccessarily a bad move. Let's take a look at it.

Igawa is not D-Mat, but he isn't as far away as you might think. He has been a consistently excellent pitcher in Japan - putting up a 2.97 ERA in 2006 in 209 innings, striking out 194 (which led the league), while walking 49. Prior to 2006, he posted similar numbers, with a career ERA of 3.30, a BB/9 ratio of 2.74, and a K/9 ratio 8.64. Very solid numbers in a league which has a level of competition somewhere between AA and AAA.

He is 27 years old. He throws 88-90 with excellent control and a 72 mph changeup and a decent curveball. Nothing special, but he isn't terrible either. I am always weary of pitchers from Japan because they pitch on 5 days rest instead of 4. Igawa has always pitched a ton of innings throughout his career, but will he adjust to the shorter rest?

Why could this be a good signing? Well, Igawa doesn't have a lot of leverage in contract talks. He can either stay in Japan or go to the Yankees, and he isn't a free agent until after his 30th birthday. I can't imagine that he gets paid more than 1-2 million. The Yankees will probably offer him a 3-4 year deal at 6 million per or so. The 26 million dollar posting fee is a lot, but at least it doesn't count toward the luxery tax.

I wouldn't have made the move, but Igawa isn't going to be significantly better or worse than someone like Randy Wolf or Ted Lilly, and Igawa will come cheaper when all is said and done than them. I just wish that the Yankees would trust their farm.

This also might be a signal about Randy Johnson's health. If Johnson were to be healthy, the Yankees would have all five 2007 rotation spots filled, with Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Pavano, and Igawa. We have too many pitching prospects at the AAA level not to leave one spot open for them in Spring Training. Maybe the Yankees will just eat Johnson's contract and leave him on the DL for the year.

Prospect Profile: Jose Tabata (#2)

2006-11-28T12:12:00.000-05:00

Age: 18
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 160 lbs
Drafted: Signed Out of Venezuela in 2005 for 500,000 dollars
Position: Outfield (Where is yet to be determined)
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

Batting: Jose Tabata is all about the projection of his bat. This is one weakness that I have in evaluating prospects. I'm no scout. I can only rely on the consensus of others. The consensus is that Jose Tabata has a big league bat capable of Manny Ramirez type numbers. I doubt that to an extent, even though I do not doubt that Tabata has the ability to be a major impact player, but I do doubt his power potential. Tabata is a small baseball player. He's not Phil Rizzuto, but there is no way to get around Tabata's size. He isn't a lot smaller than Manny Ramirez, but Ramirez is a special type of player. Ramirez is a hall of fame talent who comes along once in a generation, and immediately hit a ton of home runs in the minor leagues at Tabata's age. Tabata is "built like a fire hydrant", but can he really hit 40+ home runs? I doubt it. Tabata does however have two very good skills that he shares with Manny Ramirez: near inhuman plate discipline for an 18 year old and a tremendous ability to get base hits. He will hit a ton of doubles and get his share of extra base hits. Scouts rave about his swing and his ability to keep his hands in. He'll be a batting title contender if everything turns out right.

Defense: Tabata's position is uncertain. At present, he has plus range in the outfield and an average to above average arm. He has been playing left field in Charleston. He could probably be an average centerfielder, but the Yankees played him in the corners in 2006. This was in part due to Tim Battle and Austin Jackson being in Charleston for much of the season, who don't have the bats to hold down a corner position. We'll see if the Yankees try to shift Tabata back to center, but his likely destination is probably left field. He wouldn't have a terrible arm in right field, but it would be average at best there. With hitting potential like Tabata's, position is less of a concern. Still, it would be nice if he were to end up in Centerfield for at least his prime years.

Performance: Tabata spent his age 17 season showing the Gulf Coast League who was boss, hitting .314/.382/.417 in 44 games with 22 stolen bases, 15 walks, 14 strikeouts, 3 home runs, one triple, and five doubles. The power numbers may have been down, but Tabata had a phenominal season for a 17 year old (he actually didn't turn 17 until August of that year). He immediately show toward the tops of prospect lists, but he would really prove himself in 2006 when he was sent to Charleston. During his first three months, he owned A ball hitters, hitting .321/.432/.450, all before his 18th birthday. Unfortunatly, a wrist injury began to sap his power and playing time in June, resulting in a long fade which would land him on the disabled list. He was thought to be healthy after the season ended and was sent to the DWL, where he hit .288/.431/.404 against intense competition before going down with the same wrist injury.

2007 Outlook: If he's able to play (and nothing that we've heard so far indicate the contrary) he will be sent to High A Tampa, where he will be among the youngest if not the youngest player in the league yet again. He made strides in the power department in 2006, but the Yankees will be looking for a lot of those doubles to turn in to home runs. He is going to be in a tough ballpark for hitters, so the numbers may be a little more subtle than they could be. The Yankees will probably keep him there for the entire year, unless he really blows the league away (which is certainly possible). Tabata is years ahead of schedule. Health will be an issue, which I will discuss later. If the Yankees hope to keep him at centerfield, they will have to make a move back there in 2007. Tampa should be an exciting place.

Health: This wrist issue is a major concern about Tabata. No one thought that it was serious when he left Charleston, because presumably the Yankees would have a short leash on an 18 year old. But when Tabata went down in the DWL, a lot of people (myself included) grew worried. Very little information has come out of the Yankees' organization about this, so I can only speculate, which I won't. Wrist injuries can be very tough, and statisically this one clearly hurt his play. Other health issues revolve around his frame and weight. He has a lot of growing to do, and a lot of people are speculating that he could end up with "chunky" legs. This could hurt his range in the outfield. As good as Manny Ramirez is with the bat, we don't want Tabata looking like him in the field.

Ceiling: Very high. In my opinion it is still limited due to size, but Tabata certainly has the ability to hit like an MVP candidate. If nothing goes terribly wrong, he is going to hit #3 somewhere someday for a long time. I don't think that he has the kind of ceiling that a guy like Montero has, simply for lack of power. Of course, this all changes if Tabata ends up in centerfield, where he could be on a Carlos Beltran/Vernon Wells level.

Reaching Ceiling: Tabata will have plenty of chances to fail in the coming years. He probably has at least two and a half minor league seasons to go at bare minimum, and these injury issues don't make things any better. For an 18 year old to be as high as Tabata is on everybody's radar is very special. I think that we'll see a quick rise out of Jose.

Comparison: Somewhere between Kirby Puckett and Brian Giles. Tabata is going to take more walks than Puckett (resulting in a higher batting average), but hit for less power than Brian Giles did in his prime (Giles also got on a very slow start to his career). We'll see how his home run stroke comes along in time.

My Take: Again, Tabata is the kind of prospect that my methods have trouble analyzing. His statistical pedigree is strong, especially when he remembers to take his walks. That said, I have to rely on a lot of people agreeing about his hitting projection. I think that position will determine a lot about Tabata's future. If he goes to a corner, I think that Tabata will have some all star years but won't be considered a top-5 player at his position. I think that Tabata could put up numbers not all that far from Bernie William's numbers in centerfield, or at the very least hit .310/.400/.520 every year. A year from now, we'll have a better picture of where Jose Tabata is going. I'd place my bets on a more optimistic outcome than otherwise.

Prospect Profile: Joba Chamberlain (#3)

2006-11-27T19:47:00.000-05:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 230
Drafted: 1st Supplemental Round in 2006 out of University of Nebraska
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Chamberlain is a big guy. He has a big fastball. Chamberlain throws 94-97 with plenty of life. There were reports out of Hawaii that he was being clocked at 98-99. Chamberlain's weight problem prevented him in the past from maintaining his ideal fastball throughout the later stages of each start, but he has whipped himself into shape over the last two years. More on his weight later. Chamberlain locates his fastball with the best of them.

Changeup: Chamberlain has an average 80-82 mph changeup. The Yankees are working on it and believe that it has a chance to become significantly better. He has throw it a lot in Hawaii, using it to get ahead in the counts.

Slider: Chamberlain has an above average to plus slider, which is his strikeout pitch. A typical power pitcher, you can imagine how he uses it. He has command with it, rarely leaving it up in the zone (although, like most pitchers, he can't really get a called strike with it). It is his best secondary pitch.

Curveball: Chamberlain has an above average curveball. Chamberlain may or may not abandon it as his primary "slow" pitch in favor the changeup. Lately the Yankees have been encouraging curveballs over sliders for their high school draft picks, so we'll see how Chamberlain goes.

Command: Chamberlain has plus control, but not plus command. Of course, he has the advantage of throwing 97. He'll pound the zone for strikes, but won' tbe able to hit a one inch box like Kennedy or Clippard, but he won't walk the ballpark either. Unlike those two, Chamberlain can afford to lay the occasional fastball over the middle of the plate. He illustrated his control in the HBL this winter, striking out 46 while somehow walking 3.

Performance: Chamberlain does not have an Ian Kennedy resume. He played for one year for a Division II college, weighing close to 290 pounds. He had a strong fastball but not much else, posting an ERA ove 5.00. He transfered to Nebraska, and set about improving his weight. The results were excellent, and he pitched 118.2 innings of of 2.81 ERA ball. He struck out 130 while walking just 33 and allowing just 7 home runs. He entered 2006 as a top-5 pitching prospect in the draft, but a triceps injury scared a lot of people away. His performance suffered early on, although he would eventually recovery and end the season well. He pitched 89.1 innings of 3.93 ERA ball, striking out 102 and walking 34. He allowed 8 home runs. The injury scared scared off a lot of people, causing Chamberlain to sink to the Yankees at the 41st pick. He signed late, preventing him from pitching in Staten Island. Instead, the Yankees sent him to Hawaii, where he blossomed. He pitched 37.2 innings of 2.63 ERA ball, posting that mind blowing strikeout to walk ratio of 46:3. The hitting competition wasn't great in Hawaii, but those numbers are beyond insane. Chamberlain was clearly the best pitcher in the state.

2007 Outlook: The looked like a foregone conclusion two months ago that Chamberlain would start the year in Tampa. He hadn't played an ounce of professional baseball and hadn't blown away NCAA hitters. However, as a power pitcher with tons of life on his fastball, Chamberlain may find wooden bats easier than Kennedy might. His HBL performance was nothing short of dazzling, and the hitters there are supposed to be roughly equal to High A ball level. The Yankees may push him and start him at Trenton, especially considering that Trenton may be the only minor league club that the Yankees aren't going to have a huge surplus of rotation spots. He could excell and could find himself in the major league picture as early as Spring Training of 2008.

Health: Chamberlain has two primary health concerns. First, he has weight problems. He used to be downright fat. He weighted over 280 pounds, with some claiming he was closer to 300. He had all sorts of knee and muscle problems throughout his early college career. However, someone must have lit a fire under his fat ass because he lost over 50 pounds and began pitching like an ace. The knee problems have gone away, but his triceps started to act up at the begining of this year. The injury hurt his velocity and his control, and as a result all of his numbers dipped. It was enough to make teams shy away from his top-level stuff and let him fall to the Yankees at 41.

Ceiling: Chamberlain is a bona fide potential #1 starter. He has the control, power, and secondary stuff to do it all. He has been reported to be an unceasing competitor who wears his emotions on his sleeves. He certainly has the ability to strike out 200 while posting an ERA over 3.50, which makes him an ace in my book. He'll probably pitch his fair share of innings and even have a shot at a Cy Young down the line.

Reaching his Ceiling: Time will tell whether or not Chamberlain's triceps injury is serious. I expect that it is not. His weight problem will on the other hand be a constant issue, and similar problems have derailed the careers of many a Bartolo Colon.

Comparison: C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia is a little bit taller and wider, but they have the same basic pitching style. They both have a strong fastball which sits at 94-95, and both throw a slider/curve/changeup setup. Sabathia's achilles heel prior to his successful 2006 season involved a lot of maturity issues, which Chamberlain (who is already a father) does not seem to have. The college polish is certainly there.

My Take: I originally has Chamberlain rated outside of the top-10. I had ranked the Top 30 Yankee prospects right after Detroit knocked us out. Chamberlain came in with a good reputation but the injury concerns and lack of any professional experience was a knock against him. At the time, the report was that he was also only throwing 92-93. Things changed. He regained his velocity, stayed in shape, and utterly dominated Hawaii. I usually don't put a lot of stock in winter league numbers, but a 46:3 K/BB ratio is insane. On top of that, two of those walks came in his first start, where he pitched only 2 innings. His numbers were unrelenting after that. Between the rise in velocity, the numbers, and the speed that he learned a new changeup, Chamberlain rocketed in my eyes. This is one of those "gut feeling" picks.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Clippard (#4)

2006-11-25T18:36:00.000-05:00

Age: 21 (22 in February)
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 200
Drafted: 9th round in 2003 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Tyler Clippard does not throw hard. He throws between 88-92. Kennedy has his smarts, Chamberlain has his fastball, but Clippard has his control. He can place the ball within inches of where he wants it - every time. The fastball is certainly an obstacle to success, but Clippard has not faltered. Despite the big frame, he hasn't aided any velocity to the fastball after gaining over 15 pounds of muscle. That is all right, because his other pitches get him by.

Curveball: Clippard dominated the low minor leagues by combining great control with a great changeup against hitters as young as he was. He got strikeouts like crazy by hitting a corner or expertly placing a ball just out of the strike zone. However, this is not an approach which will get whiffs out of more advanced hitters. Clippard started to learn the curveball in the begining of 2005, and Nardi Contreras yet again succeeded in teaching a true plus pitch to his pupil. Clippard quickly adopted his approach with his new out pitch, thrown at about 76-77 mph.

Changeup: Clippard has long thrown the changeup, but over the past two years it has been his trademark. He combined an already deceptive delivery with the ability to throw an 80 mph change without any indication that it is coming. He throws it for strikes and is willing to use it in any count. It isn't as good as Jeff Marquez's, but it isn't far behind.

Command: Clippard can throw all three of his pitches for strikes very consistently. His strike throwing capabilities have allowed him to eat innings throughout his minor league career. He puts the ball exactly where he wants it. His command isn't perfect, but it is very close. His height makes his top-down delivery very deceptive.

Performance: Tyler Clippard has about as good of a minor league pedigree as it gets. He pitched 149 or more innings in each of his full major league seasons, posting a collective ERA of 3.33. In 513.1 total innings, he has struck out 557 and walked just 126. He has steadily advanced from league to league, pitching in all three levels before AAA without fail. He appeared to falter to start off 2006 - posting of 4.07, 4.06, and 5.81 in April, May, and June. The stuff-crazy pundits were saying "See... we were right! He can't be that good with a 90 mph fastball". Of course, stat heads like myself were saying "Hmm... his ERAs don't match his peripherals. Something is up". Clippard had struck out 87 and walked just 30 in 86 innings, allowing 8 home runs. Statistically, he was doing the same thing he had done in the two years previous. He was either getting unlucky or his defense was letting him down. Clippard recovered, playing some of the best baseball in the minor leagues in the remainder of the season, pitching 80 more innings with an ERA of 1.91 and 92 strikeouts to just 25 walks. Clippard was top-5 in the minor leagues in both innings and strikouts.

2007 Outlook: Clippard has a luxery right now. A lot of ballclubs would take Clippard's mind blowing second half and set him up in the major leagues right away. However, Clippard is a finesse pitcher. Finesse pitchers take a little longer than power pitchers to adjust to new leagues. Clippard will benefit from a near-full season at AAA, and I would be very surprised if we see him in the major leagues in 2007 before September. He has the talent to do it, but he is behind Karstens, Rasner, Hughes, Sanchez, and White in the depth charts. That is not a knock on Clippard - as he is only 21 years old. We'll see him starting full time in 2008.

Health: One of the reasons that Clippard is rated so high is his health situation. His effortless delivery, lack of reliance on velocity, and consistent 150 inning performances through his age 21 season are all great signs for a young pitcher. You could not ask for more in a pitcher. A++

Ceiling: Clippard has a flaw. Thanks to his average fastball, Clippard is prone to giving up the home run. He's no Eric Milton, but Clippard will probably allow 25-30 home runs every season in the major leagues. His home ballparks have been big and traditionally helped him a lot in this regard, but he is going to have a little trouble remaining elite in the majors. Luckily, his great control has helped to dull the damage from the bombs. It will keep him from winning Cy Young Awards, but Clippard can certainly be a reliable starter. His ability to throw strikes and eat innings will make him a very useful pitcher in the major leagues. His ERA will over between 3.70-4.20 most of the time.

Reaching Ceiling: Barring some freak injury, Clippard is pretty much there. He will try an tackle advanced hitters at AAA, but they should not prove to be much of an obstacle.

Comparison: Dan Haren. Haren has a little more of a fastball, but Clippard's breaking stuff is much better than Haren's.

My Take: I like Clippard. I think that any pitcher who has 220+ inning potential is an incredible value to his team. As Michael Kay likes to point out every inning, good pitchers throw strikes and change speeds. His fastball may be a little lacking, but control is significantly more important. Even I recognize that the fastball keeps Clippard's ceiling down (He doesn't have the magic that Kennedy or Mussina or someone like that seems to), I rated him #4 due to the impressive health record. An injury-free pitching prospect is as rare as a good interview from a hockey player, and Clippard hasn't even raised an eyebrow from any team trainer yet. He has moved passed the point in is career where pitchers generally fall to the needle. He has grown up in Phil Hughes' shadow, but Clippard should not go unnoticed.

What's In a Prospect?

2006-11-24T21:53:00.000-05:00

As I enter the cream of the Yankee prospect crop, I'd like to talk a little bit about what I look for in a prospect. I am a little unorthodox in my methods, but I believe that in a few years my predictions will hold up.

I try to reframe from cliches when analyzing prospects. I hate it when people say "He's a #3 starter", without really defining what they mean by #3 starter. 1-5 means different things for different people. Some people will say that a #1 starter is a 3.50 ERA or better guy, while some will insist that the only "#1" starter in the league right now is Johan Santana. I try not to use the term.

What do I look for in a prospect? Well, I ask myself a few questions first.

I. Does he have a pedigree? How good is it? What kind of numbers has he put up? In what context?

I am a stat-head. I can't help it. I want to see the numbers on a prospect. I really don't care about high school numbers, because any decent prospect is going to dominate so thoroughly that the difference between a .450 batting average and a .420 one is minimal. College numbers are different, as certainly conferences can have levels of competition close to A+ leagues. Of course, you have to consider the difference between aluminum and wooden bats when talking about college pitchers. Power pitchers tend to fair significantly better against wood. You have to consider the age of the prospect putting up those numbers, because Eric Duncan's age 20 season at AA was encouraging for a 20 year old, but would be a major failure for an older player.

What numbers specifically? I am very, very high on control of the strike zone. The strike zone is the most important factor in baseball, and those who utilize it best will succeed. For pitchers, this means two things: not walking people and striking them out. Walks lead to big innings, and strikeouts prevent hits. There is a lot of luck involved with batted balls, and strikeouts prevent the whims of fate from ruining a game for a pitcher. I look at ERA, but I don't take it in to account too much. Look at a guy like Jeff Marquez. Marquez has freakish ground/fly splits, but his defense has always hurt him. As he improves, the ERA will normalize.

For hitters, I look for a couple of things. First off, a very important factor that people forget is park and league factor. Tampa is a big ballpark in a pitchers league, which makes performances like Cody Ehlers' go underrated. I mentally add about 20% to all hitter numbers in Tampa. Next, I think about position. Good numbers for a 1st baseman translate into amazing numbers for a CF. Finally, the actual numbers themselves. I like prospects who take a lot of walks. If a prospect can maintain a respectable batting average while taking his fair share of walks, he is a pretty sure bet to have at least a major league bench career. I look for power, but a lot of prospects (like Shelly Duncan or Mitch Jones) like to sacrifice the ability to prevent outs by going for the sexy home run numbers. Again, the numbers have to be put in context.

Battings averages are weird things. A player could do everything right but end up hitting .260 over 600 plate appearances. Balls bounce weird or defenses can make an inordinate amount of excellent plays against a batter. However, a player can do a few things right to keep his batting average high. He can put the ball in play, since a strikeout is a near automatic out. Simply by putting the ball in play every time, a very mediocre player will hit at least .270 or so. In addition, hitting ground balls will lower your batting average. Yeah, a batter can aim for a hole, but very often the ball will reach an infielder. Line drives are much better, as over 70% of them fall in for outs. Fly balls will create a lot of extra base hits, but will lower your batting average as a lot of them end up caught for outs. In addition, a player's batting average can be raised by taking walks. Speed can help too, especially on ground balls.

I don't like to look at batting averages, but I do like to look at their context. If a player hits .240 with 160 strikeouts and 60 walks, then he has a problem. Look at Tim Battle for example. However, if a guy hits .260 with 90 strikeouts and 60 walks, then I don't worry too much. Younger players tend to struggle with batting averages, despite strikeout and walk numbers.

II. What do the scouts say about a player? Is he ahead of his curve? For pitchers, what does he throw? Does he have control of his pitches?

For me, this stuff comes second. I draw a distinction between how a prospect has performed and their means to that performance. Yes, the means to the performance is very important, but it is also highly subjective. I do not doubt that a skilled scout can tell the difference between the next Manny Ramirez and the next Drew Henson, but most people who call themselves by that label are not as skilled as they would have you think. Performance is a much better way of evaluating prospects.

But of course, all performance has context. A pitcher who dominates A ball based on his 96 mph fastball but has poor control and no secondary pitches will not succeed in the high minor leagues. A guy who does very well with his 84 mph fastball and trick curveball does not have major league stuff, even if he can fool 19 year olds.

I like changeups. Everybody these days has a slider or a curveball, and major league hitters are getting much better at hitting them. However, the ability to throw a plus changeup is not something common to pitchers, and it adds velocity to the fastball. Everybody can throw hard, but can everybody change speeds? Pitching is about deception, and a changeup is the best way to decieve hitters. In addition, I like smart pitchers. Athletes often try to turn their brains off when playing their games (which seems to extend to broadcasters and sports writers these days), but that is not always the best approach. Scouts put no faith in guys like Matt DeSalvo (who is actually literate, unlike most baseball players), Ian Kennedy, or Tyler Clippard, because they have trouble understanding how they manage to achieve their results. Again, this is why performance-based analysis is so much more accurate than means-driven analysis.

For batters, I sometimes have to rely on scouting for younger prospects. Guys like Jose Tabata and Jesus Montero are young and so raw that they simply have not played enough to determine their worth.

III. Is he healthy? For pitchers, how many innings has he managed to pitch so far? Does he have any lingering health issues?

This is pretty self explanatory. Between the ages of 18 and 21, a huge portion of the pitching prospects out there fail. Why do they fail? They blow their arms out. A lot of these guys have been pitching since they were 11 years old and have thrown far too many breaking balls. My sister pitches in softball, and she very nearly blew out her elbow because her pitching coach taught her a riser too early. Pitchers are the same way. Most High School pitchers throw little more than 60 innings in a season. A full minor league season will include 27+ starts for a pitcher, a huge increase. This increased workload kills off a lot of arms. College pitchers have a huge advantage in this regard in that they have been exposed to 90-140 inning workloads, and their arms have grown past the stage where injuries occur. This eliminates a lot of risk.

IV. What position does he play? Does he have the tools to hold it down? Does he have the bat? The secondary pitches?

I can easily find a 25 home run 1st baseman. Guys like Lyle Overbay aren't anything special. However, you can count the number of 25 home run shortstops on one hand. I look at all positions on a line. The line goes DH-1b-LF-RF-3b-CF-2b-SS-C. Offense is less valueable to the left and more to the right. Players who have trouble playing defense will much more likely move left than right. A shortstop with a bad arm can play 2nd, and a CF with poor range can slide to left. However, their offensive contribution suffers. A guy like Eric Duncan, who may be able to put together a few .270/.375/.500 years, suffers in prospect status by moving to 3rd. Instead of competing against a few guys like Mark Teahen, Alex Rodriguez, and David Wright, he is at a position where 40 HR Richie Sexton is considered poor. Defense is a distant third in importance to pitching and hitting, but it is neccessary.

V. Gut feelings.

Sometimes I just feel really good about a guy. Ian Kennedy, George Kontos, and Cody Ehlers are that way for me. It is a gut feeling that I cannot put any logical reasoning behind. My gut feeling on Dellin Betances moved him from #11 to #5. I am no professional scout, but I have been a baseball watcher for long enough to get a real feel for some of these prospects.

Maybe this all makes my rankings more sensible. Maybe it does not. Tomorrow, we move on to #4, Tyler Clippard.

MVP

2006-11-22T12:39:00.000-05:00

I hate the BBWAA. Hate them. It always amazes me how some extremely successful baseball writers can be so clueless.

I am not upset that Jeter lost. There were arguments against Jeter. I am upset that the BBWAA decided that Justin Morneau deserved the award. He very clearly did not.

Steve Lombardi at WasWatching.com did a very good summary of why Jeter wins out on the numbers, clearly. I cannot do any better, so I might as well just link it.

Baseball writers are stupid. Well, most of them are. Some are intelligent enough to determine their feet from their hands. A few. One or two...

Sometimes I think that bloggers should determine these awards.

The knocks against Jeter for the writers:

1. Lack of home runs. He hit 14.
2. He is a Yankee

Anything else? Nope. Home runs are sexy. They are pretty damn useful too. I love home runs. If Jeter was a 1st Baseman, I would expect him to hit them. But there are other ways to contribute other than home runs.

It is really easy for a 1st baseman or designated hitter to put up good numbers. Take a look at the big three: Frank Thomas, David Ortiz, and Travis Hafner. These are big guys. Huge guys. They are able to be so damn big because they do not have to play the field. Look at Jason Giambi. He is just as big, but suffers from constant injuries due to his responsibilities in the field. Thomas, Ortiz, and Hafner are able to load up the muscle and not worry about the wear and tear of everyday playing because they are active for about 5 minutes out of a game. Oritz and Thomas got more votes than Mauer, and Hafner got a bunch too.

Jeter's position automatically makes any offense that he derives from it more valueable. If Justin Morneau went down, the Twins could fairly easily find a Travis Lee or Chris Shelton or Kevin Millar or Mike Jacobs, or David Delluci or some other scrub to hit .270/.350/.460 out of the slot. If Jeter went down? The Yankees would replace his .343/.417/.483 line with a Nick Green or Miguel Cairo or Neifi Perez or someone else who the Yankees would be lucky to get a .250/.310/.360 line out of. The downfall is significantly worse. The whole idea of replacement level derives from this concept.

Derek Jeter provides the Yankees a better competitive edge than does Justin Morneau. I could see a vote for Jermaine Dye or Joe Mauer, or even Johan Santana, but Justin Morneau is just a poor choice. Morneau's contribution is entirely offense, where he put up an excellent .321/.375/.559 line. Simply from batting lines, Jason Giambi, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Frank Thomas, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, and Paul Konerko were better.

Prospect Profile: Dellin Betances (#5)

2006-11-21T12:05:00.000-05:00

Age: 18
Height: 6'7"-6'9" (Depending on who you ask)
Weight: 185-215 (Again, depending on who you ask)
Drafted: 8th Round in 2006 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Betances is 18 years old. He is a big guy. He has yet to put a lot of muscle on his frame. He throws a 93-97 mph fastball, hitting 98, with nasty movement on it. He throws it with command and consistent mechanics. His fastball can do nothing but improve. Betances entered camp a raw talent, throwing 3-4 mph slower and with a mechanical delivery all over the place. The Yankees took him in and almost immediately corrected his flaws, resulting in a beautiful product.

Curveball: Betances throws a knuckle curve. He entered camp with a slight feel for it, but it was not much of a weapon. As would be a theme for Betances, this would change almost immediately. In less than two months, Betances transformed a pitch which he had little feel for in to a true plus pitch. His curveball is a strikeout weapon that sits in the low 80s.

Changeup: Yet again, Betances entered camp without much of a changeup. In fact, he entered camp barely knowing how to throw one. At least he had some experience with a curveball. With a little instruction, Betances was almost instantly able to throw a plus changeup, which compliments his fastball perfectly. He does not yet use it as a strikeout pitch, but that could change in the future.

Command: Betances entered camp with the typical "tall man syndrom", meaning that he had difficult repeating his delivery. That lasted about a week. To compare, it took Randy Johnson the better part of a half decade to do the same. That said, Betances is not 6'10". People tend to overestimate height, and I would say that Betances is more likely closer to 6'7" than 6'9". After that week of adjustment, Betances never let up. He was dominant.

Performance: Betances has a short pedigree in professional baseball. After signing, he tossed 23.1 innings (the Yankees limited his workload, as they do with a lot of 18 year olds), striking out 27, walking 7, and allowing just 3 earned runs (1.16 ERA). Betances did this following a 40+ inning high school performance where he struck out over 100. Why did he fall to us in the 8th round? Well, there are a few reasons. First off, no one thought that he would sign. Second, he pretty much said "If I am going to sign, it is only going to be with the Yankees". Third, he was not a three pitch pitcher prior to attending the Yankee camp. He tossed a live fastball and had little in terms of secondary pitches. This is a steal.

2007 Outlook: Dellin will certainly head to Charleston, where he will join a very talented rotation. The Yankee goal in 2007 will likely to simply keep Betances healthy, marginally effective, and adjusted to everyday baseball. He has no lingering issues with injury to worry about, but at such a young age who knows what health problems he may encounter in the future. He could very well take the Phil Hughes path, moving up to Tampa after some limited time in Charleston. If he manages to pitch 120+ innings, we Yankee fans should be very optimistic about his future. If he dominates Charleston, we may have another top-flight prospect on our hands.

Health: Incomplete. He is too young to determine anything about his health, although he has no immediately apparent health issues.

Ceiling: Betances has no ceiling. He is that good. If he can continue to stay mechanically clean and throw three plus pitches, he will be a success in this league. He is so young that he should be considered years ahead of schedule. I have not seen Betances pitch, but after reading a lot about him something struck me. He knows how to adjust. He quickly learned pitches, he quickly learned how to fix his mechanics, and he quickly learned how to attack hitters in professional baseball. Who does this remind me of? Phil Hughes.

Reaching Ceiling: He is so young that he will have dozens of opportunities to fail. Nothing can really be said about this right now.

Comparison: Can I say Phil Hughes? I guess I cannot. Besides a few inches and a few ticks of velocity, the two prospects seem to be mirror images of each other. Since I cannot say Phil Hughes, I am going to compare Betances to a healthy Mark Prior.

My take: I originally had Betances rated much lower, for the same reason that I rated Montero lower. But I stepped back and reflected on my choice. Betances is very young and very inexperienced. However, I cannot ignore how quickly his pitching intelligence kicked in and he adjusted his game. Some players just have it. They just know how to play. It is natural for them. Betances seems to be a natural. I am going to cautiously predict that Betances will have a Hughes-like rise to power, becoming a top-5 pitching prospect in this league in the next few years. Yankee fans should be very excited about him. His height and velocity give him an advantage over a guy like Hughes. Cross your fingers that he stays healthy.

Staying Out of the Market

2006-11-20T18:55:00.000-05:00

This is an insane free agent market. 51 million for D-Mat? 130+ for Soriano? Oh no, it gets crazier.

The Dodgers have officially signed Juan Pierre to a 5 year, 45 million dollar contract.

Pierre hit .292/.330/.388 last year.

And the Dodgers thought that they had it bad with Paul DePodesta.

In the words of Mike from Pending Pinstripes:

With untradeable albatross contracts like this becoming the rule rather than exception, it makes having a deep and productive farm system that much more valuable. Pre-arbitration guys like Robbie Cano, Joe Mauer and David Wright have so much value in today’s game that the days of having to deal 2-3 prospects for a proven veteran are just about gone with the days of having to deal 2-3 proven veterans for a prospect fast approaching.

Couldn't have said it better.

Prospect Profile: James Brent Cox (#6)

2006-11-20T12:01:00.000-05:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: Second Round in 2005 out of the University of Texas
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: J.B. Cox is not going to blow his fastball by anybody. He throws a 2-seamer at about 91-92 mph from a 3/4 arm slot. Previously, Cox had proven to throw a very durable near-sidearm fastball, but the Yankees decided to change this. He was throwing 86-89 when they drafted him, in part due to fatigue after throwing so many college innings. The new arm slot vastly improves his breaking stuff, and retains the movement on his fastball. His delivery is still deceptive, and very repeatable. He controls his fastball very well, throwing strikes with ease. The sink on his fastball has been compared to Derek Lowe's.

Slider: Cox has a plus slider, on par with T.J. Beam's. He throws it at about 85 mph, with excellent control. It breaks hard and in to left handed batters, getting him a decent amount of swings and misses. He is by no means a strikeout pitcher, but his slider is certainly a strikeout weapon. He doesn't use the pitch to get strikes, but it certainly looks like a strike when he is throwing it. The weird arm slot that he throws from makes it even more deceptive.

Changeup: Cox entered 2006 with a feel for a changeup, but it wasn't good enough to be thrown in a pressure situation. That changed. He worked very hard, turning it in to a major league quality pitch. It isn't anything special, but it gives the hitters something softer to think about. He will continue to work on it coming in to 2007, and the Yankees believe that he can make the changeup a near plus pitch.

Command: Cox has absolutely stellar command, which is easily his biggest asset. He does not get himself into trouble by walking people. He does not leave balls over the middle of the plate, resulting in an astronomically low 6 career home runs allowed in 290.1 innings between college and the minor leagues. Cox has pitched in 13 CWS games, handling the pressure as well if not better than fellow-Texan Huston Street.

Performance: Cox put together three excellent years in the NCAA's storied University of Texas, pitching 185.2 innings, striking out 190, walking 53, and posting a 2.03 ERA. He got the final out of their 2005 Championship before signing with the Yankees. He has one of best pedigrees for a college closer in the short history of drafted college closers. He doesn't throw as hard as most power relievers, but he has certainly showed up on the mound. Between High A Tampa and AA Trenton, Cox has pitched 104.2 innings, striking out 87 while walking just 29. He has allowed only 23 earned runs during that time for an ERA of 1.98.

2007 Outlook: On a lot of teams, Cox would already be in the major league bullpen and perhaps a major league closer. However, the Yankees refused to rush Cox, seeing Joe Devine on the Braves and Craig Hansen on the Red Sox crash and burn after being rushed from high end college programs to pressure situations in the show. With a suddenly loaded Yankee bullpen, Cox will start 2007 in Scranton, which will give him time to work on his changeup. He will likely be second or third on the Yankee relief depth charts, behind Chris Britton (if he gets optioned down) and T.J. Beam (who is starting to get old). There is no doubt in my mind that Cox could perform better than Kyle Farnsworth or Scott Proctor next year if sent immediately to the Yankees.

Health: If there is one reason to be concerned about Cox, this is it. He pitched well over 100 innings in 2005 between the college season, the CWS, and Tampa. The Yankees slowed it down a bit this year, giving him 77 innings before shipping him off to Team USA. He pitched well there, but went down with an elbow injury in the final days of play. He was supposed to go to Arizona, but was pulled from the team roster. No Yankee official seems to be making a big deal about it though. Hopefully they are not trying to mask a bigger problem.

Ceiling: There is debate as to whether or not Cox can be a big league closer. His fastball is below average for an ace reliever. Most closers (even Mariano) sport a 95+ mph fastball to blow by people. I think that Cox has the ability to close, but will not fool anybody to thinking that Mariano had yet to retire. In terms of quality, I would compare him to John Wetteland. Wetteland was a decent closer, but not a great one. Think about some of Tom Gordon's good years, or one of Shield's better years. The ability to eat innings should not be underrated here. Cox could be one of the average closers in this league or one of the better setup men.

Reaching his Ceiling: He is basically major league ready right now. I would say that there is an 80% chance that Cox steps in and posts a sub 3.50 ERA right away. He has as much experience as we could possibly hope for, and should feed off the pressure of the big leagues. Health is the only concern. 90% Chance of Reaching the Majors.

Comparison: Scot Shields. If Cox successfully turns his changeup into an above average pitch, he will resemble Shields even moreso. Shields relies on his sinking fastball to force ground balls and low pitch counts. Shields will probably strike more people out, but I think that Cox will be a better reliever thanks to the plus slider. He has better minor league numbers than Shields and an excellent college track record.

My Take: Cox wouldn't be #6 if he wasn't so far along. He is going to be at least a good major league reliever very soon, and could very well be a great one. His ability to get left handed batters out just as well as right handed ones thanks to the hard slider coming in will make him better than a middle reliever. He is such a certain product that there is not much more to say about him. Hopefully this mysterious elbow injury isn't serious, and I doubt that it is. Scranton is going to be a fun team to watch.

Prospect Profile: Ian Kennedy (#7)

2006-11-17T22:53:00.000-05:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 185
Drafted: 1st Round in 2006 out of USC
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Kennedy throws a 4 seamer around 88-92 mph, although it dipped in velocity during his final year at USC. He is learning a 2 seamer down in Hawaii, which may be to blame for most of his struggles there (more on this later). "But EJ, why did we waste a 1st round pick on a guy who throws 90?". Johnny, it is pretty simple. Kennedy locates his fastball with extreme poise, ala Mike Mussina.

Changeup: Kennedy has a plus changeup, which he uses with ruthless efficiency. The changeup is essential to Kennedy's approach on the mound. He uses it to out smart the batter, with a lot of success. It is one of three pitches that he will often use to finish off a batter.

Slider: Kennedy sports an above average slider, sitting in the mid 80s. He uses it to make his changeup look a little lighter, forcing the hitter to account for harder breaking stuff. He is one of the rare pitchers who can reliably throw their slider for strikes. When it misses, it misses in the dirt, not in the zone.

Curveball: He also sports an above average curveball, which he can again use with pinpoint accuracy. The curveball gives Kennedy a third strikeout pitch, making him incredibly deadly in that department (and it showed in college, which I will get to soon).

Command: As previously mentioned, Kennedy's command is excellent. He is a very smart pitcher who learns how to get each individual batter out. He has a strategic mind not unlike that of Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina. He handles pressure extremely well. In terms of "polish", the Yankees believe that Kennedy is already far ahead of most AA prospects.

Performance: Ian Kennedy put up two of the more dominant seasons in NCAA history. In 2004 and 2005, Kennedy pitched a combined 209.2 innings. He posted a 2.70 ERA between the two years, striking out 278 and walking just 69. for a 19 and 20 year old just entering college, these numbers were monumental. He had a reputation as the best pitcher in USC history - a group which includes Randy Johnson and Mark Prior. USC also happens to face the highest level of competition in the NCAA. What happened? Kennedy had a poor - by his standards - Junior year. He posted a 3.90 ERA in 101.2 innings, striking out 102 and walking 36. He did not allow any more home runs than his freshman year, give up significantly more his, or walk a ton of batters.

2007 Outlook: Unfortunately, Kennedy signed late. He only got 2.2 innings in at Staten Island before the playoffs started. Any thought of Kennedy starting in Trenton was immediately dismissed. He will start in Tampa, where he hopefully should do very well. Kennedy went to Hawaii, pitching 30.1 innings, striking out 45, walking 11, and posting a 4.56 ERA. He allowed 27 hits. A lot of Kennedy's struggles may be due to his attempt to develop a 2 seam fastball. In addition, almost half of Kennedy's earned runs came in one game, where he gave up 8 runs. Other than that game, Kennedy had an ERA of 2.48. Kennedy still struck out over 13 per 9. Still, he will go to Tampa.

Health: A lot of speculation about Kennedy's significantly worse 2006 season has been speculation about health. This is just speculation, although it may have merit. Rumors are that his velocity dropped, although no one can specifically say that it did. I am skeptical. Kennedy pitched a lot of innings in college without arm problems. He has a pretty good health record. B.

Ceiling: Kennedy's fastball is a knock against him. If you read BA, you would think that Kennedy would be lucky to get out of AAA. I cannot disagree more. I strongly believe that Ian Kennedy is going to be a major steal in this draft. A steal in the first round? Yes. Absolutely. His fastball is average. I understand that. However, Kennedy has a ton of Maddux/Mussina in him. Hell, he even does Mussina's stretch move. You cannot ignore those college numbers. Those are crazy dominant strikeouts, walks, and ERAs. I believe that Kennedy can put up a lot of typical Mussina years - 3.40 ERA, 220 innings, 200 strikeouts, 40 walks. That doesn't look like "#4 Starter" that BA seems to have doomed Kennedy to.

Reaching his ceiling: It will be up to Kennedy to prove that his 2006 season in college and Hawaii was a fluke. I believe that he can do it. Intelligence is underrated in baseball, and Kennedy appears to have the ability to outsmart his opposition. The Yankees can also afford to take their time with Kennedy and let him learn at his pace. Maybe he'll learn a gyroball or something.

Comparison: Mike Mussina, no doubt. Like I said, he resembles Mussina in almost every way. Strikeouts. No walks. Average fastball. Lots of secondary pitches. The same strange stretch move. This is the easiest comparison on this list.

My Take: Don't write Kennedy off. If George Kontos is an example where old school scouts are dead-on toward a prospect, Ian Kennedy will be an example where the stat-heads got it right. Sometimes you cannot explain a pitcher's performance by the plus marks next to his pitches or the radar gun readings. Sometimes something is just there - and Kennedy has that something. In the words of Charles Barkley - I may be wrong, but I doubt it.

Prospect Profile: Christian Garcia (#8)

2006-11-16T20:31:00.000-05:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 3rd Round in 2004 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Garcia has a plus fastball, sitting at 93-94 mph most of the time with some late movement. He can throw very hard, topping out at 97, and when he finally gets healthy he should throw even harder. He is a big guy who should have more muscle than he current has.

Curveball: Christian Garcia has the second best curveball in the Yankee system, second only to Phil Hughes, which is probably damning him with faint praise. His curveball is absolutely excellent, a near plus-plus pitch. He controls is very well and uses it to finish off batters.

Changeup: Garcia throws a circle change, and it has become another plus pitch for him. It gets down to 81 mph and is thrown from the exact same arm slot as his two other pitches. He uses it very effectively to get ahead in the count along with his fastball.

Command: Prior to this season, command was Garcia's issue. Although injuries limited him to only 54 innings, he made huge strides in that department. He walked just 16 during that time, while striking out 60. He had previously walked about twice that many in 2005. His command of all three pitches improved to the point that he may be primed for a major breakout.

Performance: Garcia had a mixed 2005, posting a 3.91 ERA for Charleston in 106 innings, striking out 103 while walking 53. He suffered from an oblique strain and some arm problems to begin 2006, landing him in extended spring training. He spent 5 games rehabbing in the Gulf Coast league, and was promoted to Charleston despite a 9.53 ERA (He struck out 15 in 11.1 innings and walked 4). He did very well there, posting a 3.46 ERA in 41.2 innings. He is currently making up for lost time in the Hawaiian league, pitching 20.2 innings with a 3.05 ERA and 23 strikeouts, although he walked 14.

2007 Outlook: Garcia is headed for Tampa, where he will enter a packed Yankee rotation. With his newfound command, we should expect nothing less than excellence. He has the stuff to move quickly throughout Tampa and Trenton, and could be in the major league picture as soon as mid-2008. He has that kind of stuff.

Health: The Yankees seem pretty confident that Garcia's arm problems are not going to linger. The muscle strains should go away. That said, Garcia was mysterious scratched and removed from the roster in Hawaii last week, and no one seems to know why. Maybe he is injured, or maybe there is some other personal excuse. We'll have to see if Garcia's arm can handle a workload larger than the 110 innings or so that he has been aksed to pitch so far. C

Ceiling: The common saying is that Garcia has the highest ceiling of any Yankee pitching prospect, even more than Phil Hughes. I don't disagree that he has a high ceiling, but I rate both Betances and Hughes higher, which is not a knock on Garcia. His stuff is certainly good enough to win a few Cy Youngs somewhere down the line. A

Reaching his ceiling: Garcia's injuries are troubling, and I am not sure what to think of them. On one hand, a lot of people seem to be optimistic. On the other hand, this mysterious exit from Hawaii is alarming. If Garcia's improvements in command and control are real, we should be very optimistic. If not, then Garcia will forever struggle with his ability to prevent walks.

Comparison: John Lackey. Garica and Lackey both combine a killer, live fastball with amazing curveballs. The changeup seems hardly neccessary when looking at their breaking stuff. Garcia's career will be determined by how close to Lackey's command he gets.

My take: I like Garcia, although he gives me a lot of reasons to be skeptical. A full, healthy season at Tampa where he does not walk the ballpark could propel him to top prospect status in all of the minors. Until then, I will cautiously say he is better than guys like Duncan or Montero, along with more advanced pitchers like Marquez. Maybe he'll be #3 or so if I do these rankings again next year.

Prospect Profile: Jesus Montero (#9)

2006-11-16T11:40:00.000-05:00

Age: 16
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
Drafted: Signed out of Venezuela in 2006 for 2 million dollars
Position: Catcher (for now)
Bats: Right

Batting: Jesus Montero is 16 years old. Jesus Montero's bat is now. His bat is among the best to come out of Latin America in history. He has 80 power on a 20-80 scale, which means he has the potential to hit 40+ home runs at the major league level. He has an advanced approach at the plate, meaning that he knows how to select his pitch. We are unsure about his strikeout and walk potential due to his lack of professional experience to this point. It is very difficult to judge too much about Montero at this stage in his development. The Yankees are already adjusting his swing to allow him to hit for power to all fields, which is something usually reserved for prospects much older than Montero.

Defense: Montero is a catcher. We know that. He probably will not remain a catcher. Montero has a few things going against him. First off, he is a big guy. At 16 years old, he will probably be larger than 6'3" 220 lbs by the time he reaches the majors. Catchers simply cannot survive at 240+ lbs. Second, he is no Joe Mauer. His defensive abilities are extremely raw and may or may not develop in to a good defensive catcher, but right now he doesn't show a lot of finesse behind the plate. The Yankees plan to keep him at catcher now, but Montero could end up a 1st baseman when all is said and done. If he does remain a catcher, his offense will be magnified tenfold.

Performance: Montero has not played any serious professional ball so far. He did hit a home run in his first professional game though.

2007 Outlook: There are two options for Montero. He could go to Charleston as a 17 year old, or he could be sent to the Gulf Coast League. I believe that Montero will not end up in Charleston. He is still learning English and the catching position, two traits that you do not want handling prize prospects such as McAllister and Betances. Montero is so incredibly young that rushing him could have poor effects. He will probably be sent to extended spring training and the GCL Yankees, where his bat will dominate. All of this said, if the Yankees decided to move him away from the catcher position, he will almost certainly be sent to Charleston. It seems a little early to do that though. When you hear things in interviews like "He hits like a big leaguer right now", you do expect prospects to be a little more rushed than expected.

Health: Montero is so young that nothing substantive can be said about his health. Incomplete.

Ceiling: The sky is the limit for Montero (a phrase that will certainly come up a lot with the next few propsects). I don't care what position he plays, because his bat has enough power to play him anywhere. A+.

Reaching his ceiling: He is so damn young that again nothing substantive can be said about it, except that power is traditionally the last tool to develop in a prospect. If he already has major league power, he is in good shape. Plate discipline will determine a lot for Montero. 20% Chance of reaching the majors.

Comparison: Again, it is way to early to compare him to anyone. He certainly has the ability to match or beat Javy Lopez's 2003 or some of Posada's best years.

My take: Some people would rate Montero a bit higher. I certainly agree with them that his ceiling is unlimited, but I cannot rate a 16 year old who never has played in the minor leagues higher than some of the guys on this list. He could very well be the #1 prospect in the Yankee system a year from now. He probably has more potential than even Tabata.

Entering the top 10

2006-11-16T11:36:00.000-05:00

It's that time. My long set of prospect profiles is soon coming to a close. We are now entering the top 10 Yankee prospects (Eric Duncan would really be #11 after Sanchez enters the rankings), and things are going to change a little. I am going to expand my prospect profiles to include some more in depth analysis, and do my best to work with blogger to put some actual statistics into the profiles. My rankings are going to be a little different from BA, PP.com, or any other sources on the internet, or at least I think they will be.

Here comes #9 (10), Jesus Montero.

Prospect Profile: Eric Duncan (#10)

2006-11-15T11:50:00.000-05:00

Age: 21 (22 in December)
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 1st round out of High School in 2003
Position: 3rd/1st
Throws: Right
Bats: Left

Tools: Eric Duncan is not going to make anybody mistake him for a triathelete. On the other hand, he is no Jason Giambi. His tool is his bat. From the start, Eric Duncan was looked on by scouts as a big time power hitter. This is a mischaracterization of Duncan. Eric Duncan will never be a 30+ home run guy. He simply does not have the swing for it. He tends to be very uncomfortable pulling balls, prefering to drive pitches in to left center field. He is one of the best in the minors at doing so. His eye at the plate is extremely selective, resulting in comparisons to Chipper Jones. His defense at 3rd was average at it's absolute best, although he has proven to be a passable 1st baseman.

Performance: The Yankees have attempted to change this, adjusting his swing to be more pull happy. The result? Lines of .235/.326/.408 as a 20 year old at AA and .209/.279/.255 as a 21 year old in AAA. He recovered in Trenton this year, hitting .248/.355/.485. In between the years, he earned the AFL MVP honors after posting a .362/.423/.734 line. Duncan has a weird power stroke that will produce lots of doubles and a decent amount of homers. The comparison is Jason Giambi is way off in this regard, as Duncan is anything but a dead-pull hitter. He has had a major strikeout problem in the high minors, punching out 136 times in 126 games in 2005 and 24 times in 31 games in AAA in 2006. The strikeouts did improve after being sent back to AA, striking out only 38 times in 57 games (equal to 108 in a 162 game season).

Outlook: I am mixed on my opinion of Duncan's future. He spent most of 2006 experiencing bad back problems, almost resulting in surgery. Those problems have again resurfaced in the AFL this year. Back problems tend to be chronic and very debilitating. If healthy, there is no doubt in my mind that Duncan will be an effective major league player. The strikeout level that he maintained in his second trip to AA is certainly low enough to maintain a decent major league batting average, and his isolated power at AA has been top of the line (.237 in 2006, Alex Rodriguez has a career .268 ISO). I love any player who can hit to all fields like Duncan can, and the plate discipline is a big plus. His minor league stats aren't great, but the Yankees have consistently rushed him from level to level. Just being in AAA at 21 this year was an accomplishment, even if he failed miserably. I believe that Duncan could blossom in to a .270/.370/.500 hitter in the majors.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health C-, Chance of Reaching Majors 75%, Comparison: Erubiel Durazo

Prospect Profile: Austin Jackson (#11)

2006-11-14T14:39:00.000-05:00

Age: 19
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180 lbs
Drafted: 8th Round in 2005 out of High School (800,000 $ bonus)
Position: Centerfield
Bats: Right

Tools: According to Travis at Pending Pinstripes, the Yankees started scouting Jackson when he was 12. They clearly had interest in his athletic talent, and it showed. Jackson is an excellent athlete, but that is only hlaf the story. His speed is 60 on a 20-80 scale, or about equal to a Bobby Abreu. He is still learning how to steal bases but has already shown 40-50 base ability. The speed translate well to centerfield, where is one among many excellent Yankee defenders. He has the arm of an average left fielder. Jackson has a Derek Jeter-like swing to right field, producing surprising gap power. Austin is extremely patient at the plate for a 19 year old, although he struck out a ton in 2006.

Performance: At first glance, Jackson did not follow up his strong performance in 2005 when sent to Charleston in 2006. He hit to a .260/.340/.346 line with 151 strikeouts, 61 walks, 37 Sbs and 12 CS. The strikeouts were not the result of a long or loopy swing but rather Jackson taking too many pitches for strike 3. That said, he came in to the season as a 19 year old pure-athlete. It is very rare that an athlete of his caliber does not swing at everything - so the pitch-taking is encouraging. He will learn as he ages to get ahead in the count and drive hitter's pitches. Jackson certainly looks to have 80-walk potential written on him. In addition, he showed excellent raw power in Charleston, hitting 33 extra base hits. With his inside-out swing he probably won't hit a lot of home runs, but he will get his share of doubles and triples (especially with his speed).

Outlook: Jackson is my pick for a breakout prospect in 2007. Except for the strikeouts, he has done everything right. If he could cut those strikeouts down considerably he looks to be a .300/.400/.450 player who can steal you 40-50 bases every year. He is still a long way off, but the Yankees may push him to Tampa next year. He will join teammates Battle, Corona, Vechionacci, and others there. He is at a stage where the average high school prospect would still be trying to figure out how to tie his shoes in professional ball, so it is easy to underrate his performance so far. He is ahead of where Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter, similar in terms of talent, were at this age.

Grades: Ceiling A-, Health B, Chance of Reaching Majors 25%, Comparison: Kenny Lofton

Ok, This is Pretty Cool

2006-11-14T13:11:00.000-05:00

CNN is running a story about Oakland's potential new stadium. It sounds pretty cool.

Cisco Systems Inc. has its way, the Oakland Athletics' new ballpark in Fremont will be the stadium of the future.
Fans will swipe electronic tickets stored on cell phones. Bleacher bums will view instant replays at their seats with laptop computers. And digital advertising displays will be able to switch images based on the buying habits of the people walking by through data embedded in their cell phones.
That was the vision that A's owner Lew Wolff laid out to Fremont City Council members this week in a pitch for Cisco Field, a planned ballpark featuring the company's technology, Fremont Mayor Bob Wasserman said Thursday.
"It's fabulous -- the technology is something else," Wasserman said. "It went over my head. It only takes about 10 seconds to go beyond me when you're talking about technology. I can't say I understand it all, but it's going to be quite a ballpark."
Wolff's pitch came just weeks after Cisco CEO John Chambers delivered a less-than-subtle presentation at Oracle OpenWorld about the advances that could be possible at a new ballpark in the San Francisco Bay area.

It will be interesting to see if the new Yankee and Mets stadium offers similar innovations. We are entering an age where wireless technology could redefine how we watch sports. Camden Yards revolutionized ballparks over a decade ago, but could Oakland do it again?

And um... can anybody tell me what the hell is in the centerfield of that picture?

Prospect Profile: Jeff Marquez (#12)

2006-11-13T21:37:00.000-05:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 175
Drafted: Supplemental 1st Round in 2004 out of Sacramento College
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Jeff Marquez has a strong sinking fastball that he throws around 92-93 mph, topping out a few ticks higher. He gets a ton of groundballs with it. He could add a few mph as he puts some muscle on his body. Marquez's fastball is good, but his real strength comes with his plus changeup, probably the best in the Yankee system. He throws it from the exact same arm slot as his fastball, but at 76 mph. He also throws a very good curveball at around the same velocity.

Command: Marquez commands his fastball and changeup extremely well. He does not rely on the strikeout, although he certainly does get his fair share (he has a career K/9 of 7.48 in the minors). Instead, he causes hitters to pound the ball in to the ground like Brandon Webb. He does not command his curveball nearly as well, although it is still a good pitch. The curveball (which Nardi Contreras seems to be teaching to every Yankee starter) has a lot of break to it, but generally breaks into the dirt. Marquez has only been throwing it for a season and a half, so it certainly could improve. He shows a remarkable ability to prevent home runs, allowing only 11 home runs in over 300 innings.

Outlook: Marquez battled injuries throughout 2006, but did not get run off his course. He pitched just under 100 innings in 2006, posting a 3.58 ERA, 90 strikeouts and 30 walks in Tampa. This is after throwing 139 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Charleston with 107 strikeouts and 61 walks. His control has improved considerably since in that small time, in part thanks to the development of his curveball. Marquez is not having a good time in the Hawaiian league right now, but he is still likely to head to AA Trenton next season. Marquez will be an effective major league player for a couple of reasons. He strikes people out, forces them to pound balls into the ground, rarely walks people, and does not allow a lot of home runs. The injuries that he missed time with were just a couple of muscle strains. I have a lot of faith in guys who change speeds as well as Marquez does. He was a first round pick for a reason. He may be converted to a reliever due to a surplus of Yankee starters, but I doubt it.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health B, Chance of Reaching Majors 50% Comparison: Ramiro Mendoza

Prospect Profile: Brett Gardner (#13)

2006-11-13T12:36:00.000-05:00

Age: 23
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 180
Drafted: 3rd round in 2005 out of the College of Charleston
Position: Centerfield
Bats: Left

Tools: Speed. Speed. More Speed. Lots of Speed. He has it. He is Willie Mays Hays. Brett Gardner has 80 speed on a 20-80 scale, and he uses it. He has stolen 77 bases in 191 career minor league games. Of course, the minors are filled with players with 80 speed who could never be decent major league players (Justin Christian, Gardner's teammate, is a prime example). Gardner combines his speed with outstanding plate discipline. He looks to have the ability to put together 80+ walk seasons. He likes to hit a lot of weak slappy line drives, which rarely translate in to extra base hits. For this reason, his ceiling is limited. His speed and excellent sense in the outfield translate to an outstanding defensive game, among the best in the Yankee farm system. His arm is average, although fairly accurate.

Performance: A former walk on at Charleston, Gardner has been constantly progressing as he moves up the minor league ladder. He was one of the many stars in Staten Island last year. This year, he started at Tampa and earned his promotion to AA with a .323/.433/.418 line and 30 stolen bases in 63 games. His performance at Trenton was not excellent, but it did show some good signs with a .272/.352/.318 line. Although his power dissolved, Gardner continued to show a special ability to reach base. Gardner then went to the AFL, where he has stumbled since starting off incredibly hot. Still, he has managed to put up a .252/.414/.359 line with 6 stolen bases in 26 games.

Outlook: Garder will be a major league player in some context. His ability to at least hit for doubles into the gap and his ability to maintain a respectable batting average will determine the role that he plays. In both Trenton and Arizona, he has shown a worrying tendency to strike out. In 26 games in Arizona, he has struck out 21 times (walking 27 times by the way). In 118 games in 2006 between Tampa and Trenton, he struck out 90 times while walking 70 times. A power hitter can afford to strike out, but a speedster like Gardner needs balls in play in order to reach base. Gardner has Juan Pierre type tools, with a little bit more on the plate discipline side of things than Pierre does. He plays better defense than Pierre. But the reason that Pierre was able to be a marginally good major league player for a couple of years was his ability to not strike out. By not striking out a lot, Pierre was able to hit .320+. Gardner will need to hit .300+ to allow his plate discipline to take over and be an effective hitter despite the lack of power. He can't strike out 110+ times a year and do that.

Grades: Ceiling B-, Health A, Chance of Reaching Majors 70%. Comparison: Dave Roberts

Prospect Profile: T.J. Beam (#14)

2006-11-13T12:08:00.000-05:00

Age: 26
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 215
Drafted: 10th round in 2003 out of U Mississippi
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: T.J. Beam did not have the stuff to remain a starter, as is common with many excellent relief pitchers. He has an excellent fastball, which clocks in at 93-95 mph, touching as high as 97 on the gun. He uses his lanky body to full effective, producing a deceptive top-down movement on his fastball. He'll see a lot of hitters swing and miss on balls in the dirt as a result. He complements it with an even better slider, at about 83-84 mph. He can place it anywhere he wants, almost as if he was locating a good fastball. Beam has experiemented with a slow looping curveball, changeup, and cutter in the past but none developed into a decent pitch.

Command: His true asset as a reliever is his ability to command that slider. He can place it anywhere he wants, almost as if he was locating a good fastball. He is not slouch with the fastball either, possessing command among the best in the Yankee system. When he walks somebody, he usually means to. Despite struggles early in his career, he posses a 3.54 career K/BB ratio and a 2.59 ERA.

Outlook: T.J. Beam struggled at first in the majors. This can be expected, considering that he entered the 2005 season in Low A Charleston. Beam has never been less than excellent at every step of the minors since converting to the bullpen. He will be an excellent major league reliever, and could put up some stellar seasons. I have a lot of faith in Beam, and the Yankees clearly do too. After not pitching an inning over Tampa, they put him on the 40-man prior to last season. He could prove to be a workhorse too, as he pitched over 90 innings last season. He will return to the Columbus bullpen, and should be the first to be called up to the major leagues. He'll be 27 in August, so time is certainly a concern. He may be the oldest prospect on this list, but do not read too much in to that. He was drafted after four years in college at 23 years old and only converted to a reliever around his 25th birthday.

Grades: Ceiling B, Health A, Chance of Reaching Majors 95%, Comparison: Steve Karsay

Prospect Profile: Steve White (#15)

2006-11-12T21:58:00.001-05:00

Age: 24
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 4th round in 2003 out of Baylor University
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: The big righty draws most of his strength from his two fastballs. He uses his long legs to pump his fastball up to the mid 90s. He is capable of throwing 95-97, but easily loses his command if he attempts to. The Yankees have him settling down at the 93-94 mph range, staying away from the meat of the plate. When not overthrowing, his fastball is a strength. He throws an above average major league slurvy curveball at 76-80 mph. He compliments this with a near-plus changeup at about 80 mph. PP.com points out that since he isn't throwing at full effort, he can stay effective deep in to games.

Command: If White is going to succeed, it will not be for lack of stuff. He certainly has the tools to compete as a good major league starter. That said, White's head is his greatest enemy. He has had trouble adjusting to higher levels, struggling both when first exposed to AA and AAA hitters. The Yankees believe that this is due to White trying and failing to throw the ball harder when he gets in to jams. He gets very nervous out on the mound. His control is not a strongpoint, but does improve considerably when he calms down. When focused, he has a reputation of a tactical baseball mind.

Outlook: White has a few things going for him. He is just 24 years old. His health record is exceptional (he was hurt by nagging non-arm related injuries such as an oblique strain in 2005, but pitched 175.1 innings in 2006), and his low-stress approach to pitching bodes well to his potential as a starting pitcher. The Yankees have a lot of faith in White, calling him up along with Hughes, Cox, and Clippard to sit in during the later regular season. White is however in danger of suffering from "Sean Henn syndrom" if he struggles at first in the major leagues. Joe Torre does not like to give rookie pitchers a second chance. Steve White may end up being trade bait because of this.

Grades: Ceiling B-, Health B+, Chance of Reaching Majors 65%, Comparison: Steve Trachsel throwing a little harder.

Prospect Profile: Kevin Whelan

2006-11-12T13:45:00.000-05:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 200
Drafted: 4th round in 2005 by Detroit out of Texas A&M
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Whelan was converted from catcher for two reasons. First, he couldn't hit. Second, he throws hard. Whelan sits at 92-95 mph, but with more experience and innings he could crank it up even harder. He very quickly developed a plus splitter, which he uses as his strikeout pitch. He was the top relief pitcher in the Cape Code league in 2004, less than a year after converting. His delivery is still a little messy, as can be expected. He has a career K/9 in college of 11.57 and 12.68 in professonal ball.

Command: As can be expected, Whelan is wild. He walked over 5 per 9 innings in college, and 4.26 per 9 in the minor leagues. Despite all of this, Whelan boasts a 2.97 K/BB ratio. As his control improves, Whelan will become a serious weapon. He has front line closer stuff if he can control it. Despite the poor command, Whelan clearly is a step ahead of the low minor leagues. He has allowed 4.49 hits per 9 innings in his career.

Outlook: The Yankees will likely push Whelan to Trenton, where he could serve as the team's closer. Whelan's developing arm will be pushed harder, probably to the tune of 75+ innings. The Tigers were careful with his innings last season, limiting him to just 54. Whelan is just 22 years old and will need at least two full seasons in the minors to learn how to pitch. The Yankees have no reason to rush him with J.B. Cox and T.J. Beam waiting in the wings to take spots on the major league roster.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health B, Chance of Reaching Majors 50%, Comparison: Too early to tell. Give him time.

Hail to the Chief

2006-11-12T11:23:00.002-05:00

Word is that Jaret Wright has been traded to Baltimore along with 1 million dollars for Chris Britton.

There are reasons why teams fail. Money is usually not the prime reason. Making trades like these? Thats a prime reason. Chris Britton is a big fat flamethrowing right handed reliever who had an excellent rookie season and turns 24 next month. He has an excellent minor league record, and a decent record of health. Jaret Wright is going to be with Baltimore for one more year and barely pitched over 5 innings in a start last season, while posting a league average ERA.

It was a good trade. I can't seem to find any information on what else Britton throws, but I do remember seeing him throw a 94-95 mph heater. Update: Turns out he has a nasty curveball. His numbers are ridiculous. He was promoted from AA in the middle of 2006, after throwing 16 innings of 2.81 ERA ball, striking out 24 while walking 6. He posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 major league innings, striking out 41 and walking 17. It gets better though. In 2005, he posted a 1.60 ERA in 78.2 innings, striking out 110 while walking just 23. He will be under our control for six years.

He is basically Brian Bruney without the terrible control. He could step in and be our best set up man right now. This is a major coup on Cashman's part, but it also signifies something important. Currently, we have Mariano, Farnsworth, Proctor, Myers, Bruney, and now Britton under contract for 2007. The Yankees are not going to start the season without at least one long reliever. Unless we make the mistake of going with a 12 man staff again, someone has got to go in favor of Karstens or Rasner to eat innings. It would be interesting to see what kind of return Farnsworth or Proctor could bring.

The trade market is certainly a seller's market right now. If I am Cashman, I take advantage.

Prospect Profile: Humberto Sanchez

2006-11-11T11:04:00.000-05:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 230
Drafted: Draft and Followed 31st Round out of Junior College (Originally from the Bronx)
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Sanchez has some of the best stuff in the minor leagues, on par with top prospects like Giovany Gonzalez, Chris Volstad, Matt Garza, and Nick Adenhart, although still a step below Homer Baily, Phil Hughes, and Jeremy Sowers. He throws an incredibly heavy 92-95 mph fastball. This heavy fastball will break bats, miss bats, and pound the ball in to the ground. He backs it up with an above average curveball and average changeup. Brian Cashman believes that Nardi Contreras can the changeup into an above average pitch and the curveball in to a plus pitch. He uses his height to his advantage, especially when throwing his curveball.

Command: Humberto has been inconsistent with command. He has the ability to pump his velocity up to 96 when he wants to, but this usually results in Sanchez becoming very wild. He is much more effective when sitting in the 93-94 mph range, where he can pound the bottom of the zone. When he learns to calm down and not overthrow, he is going to become an elite pitcher. His walk rate has improved every year since 2003.

Outlook: Sanchez has struggled with health problems in the past. He suffered from a number of nagging injuries in 2004 and 2005 which resulting in him missing time, including a sore elbow, knee surgery, and an oblique strain. However, he put it all together in 2006, pitching 123 innings between AA and AAA (his innings were limited because of past elbow problems) of 2.63 ERA ball. He struck out 129 and walked 47. He is considered major league ready, although the Yankees plan on sticking him in AAA for awhile to work on his changeup. Despite the injuries and the slow development of his 3rd pitch, the Tigers stubbornly refused to move him to the bullpen. He has the ability to be an elite closer in this league, but he could also be a top starter. If Nardi Contreras can indeed improve his two secondary pitches, and he stays healthy, look for Sanchez to be something very special. The overall pitching depth of the Yankees at AAA will enable them to take it slow with him.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health C-, Chance of Reaching Majors 80%, Comparison: I've heard Roberto Hernandez, but I am still confident that Sanchez can remain a starter.

It's a Coup

2006-11-11T00:44:00.000-05:00

I am amazed. Brian Cashman is a God. I openly cheered when I read on Rotoworld a few hours ago that Humberto Sanchez was going to be a New York Yankee. Not only that, but we got two quality relief prospects in addition, Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett.

The best part? We gave up nothing. N-O-T-H-I-N-G in return. We gave up a 37 year old slugger who was not a serious part of our team last year and we were going to let walk if he were not able to be traded. We got Humberto Sanchez without giving up Tyler Clippard, Eric Duncan, or any of our other prospects. The Tigers can afford this, due to their immense pitching depth, but you have to ask yourself if this was in fact a good move.

I will be doing prospect profiles on both Sanchez and Whelan fairly soon. Sanchez would probably be a top-6 Yankee prospect, while Whelan somewhere in between Cox and Melancon (although Melancon, now being injured, would come off the list).

Brian Cashman did an excellent job here. Sanchez, if he is able to stay healthy, is a top-end reliever or a very good starting pitcher.

Sheffield Trade News

2006-11-10T12:16:00.000-05:00

Taking a break from prospects for a second, I would like to talk a little about Gary Sheffield. I would optimistic but not too optimistic about the chances of a good return for the whining veteran, but now I am a lot more confident about our potential for bringing back a significant piece for the slugger.

I am sure that most of you have seen some of the news lately. The Padres, intensely interested, offered up the young ace reliever Scott Linebrink for Sheffield's services. The Yankees turned them down. The Padres quickly pulled the trigger on Kevin Kouzmanoff, giving away Josh Barfield, due to rumors that Sheffield was going to be traded to Cleveland in return for the excellent first base prospect. Now it seems that the Tigers are interested, possibly offering up Nate Robertson for Sheffield. We're even hearing rumors about Humberto Sanchez entering the discussion.

These are major trade pieces. Robertson is an above average healthy left handed starting pitcher with a few years left on his c0ntract. Linebrink is a young future closer. Kouzmanoff is a 25 year old college prospect who has hit like Joe DiMaggio in the minor leagues for three years. Sanchez is has often been compared to Kevin Brown in both style and effectiveness. There is certainly a huge market for Sheffield.

I would have pulled the trigger on any of these trades, and I am sure that two weeks ago Cashman would have two. But it seems like Cashman is confident that he may be able to get more out of these teams. I really want Cashman to call up Texas and attempt to procure Teixeira for some package revolving around Sheffield.

Prospect Profile: Marcos Vechionacci (#16)

2006-11-08T11:43:00.000-05:00

Age: 20 (just turned)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 170 lbs
Drafted: Signed out of Venezuela in 2002
Position: 3rd base (With experience at 2nd and SS)
Hits: Switch
Throws: Right

Tools: Vechionacci is a legit 6-tool player. He has a ton of plate discipline and speed, and the Yankees project power to develop out of his swing. His ability to hit for average is questionable, as he has had some low batting averages in recent years, but many scouts believe that this is just a result of Nacci playing at an age far below his league. His real tools though fall on the other side of the ball. Vechionacci used to be a catcher, but was quickly converted to the infield. He tried shortstop and 2nd base, but eventually settled in at 3rd base. His defensive ability at 3rd base is nearly unrivaled, impressing even Joe Torre in spring training last season. He has Rolen/Chavez potential there.

Performance: Vechinacci has had mixed results in his three season minor league career. He was excellent as a 17 year old in 2004, hitting .319/.387/.454 between Staten Island and the Gulf Coast league (which a brief appearance in Tampa). He did not hit well in Charleston the following year, but displayed ISO and IsoOBP numbers are were very encouraging. Despite the low batting averages by Vechinacci, the Yankees were forced to rush him to Tampa in 2006, mostly because of the incredible amount of infield talent in Charleston. Along with a few other young Latino players, Nacci flopped. He was sent back to Charleston, where he improved upon his already decent ISO and IsoOBP numbers while maintaining a low batting average. He finished 2006 with a .255/.352/.386 line. His defense improved further.

Outlook: While a long way off, the results are encouraging for a prospect like Nacci. 20 may sound old, but remember that most college prospects are 22 or 23 by the time they high High A ball. Marcos will be given a second shot at Tampa in 2007, where he will have a chance to make a difference on a very good team. He has the tools, talent, and track record to make a major break out next season. Raw power and plate discipline are incredibly important for a toolsy prospect like Vechionacci. The Yankees settled him in at 3rd not because it was where he would be the most valued defender (he was excellent at short and 2nd as well), but because they believe he has the bat to hold down the offense-centered position.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B, Chance of Reaching Majors 20%, Comparison: Eric Chavez without the lefty problems.

(P.S. Yesterday was a great statement for democracy, regardless of political party. A motivated, incredibly discontent electorate caused large scale turnover in the House of Representatives despite modern-day obstacles of gerrymandering, incumbency, and monetary issues. Congradulations voters, you still matter)

Prospect Profile: Mark Melancon (#17)

2006-11-06T23:03:00.000-05:00

(the first of the big time prospects)
Age: 21
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 210 lbs
Drafted: 9th round in 2006 out of the University of Arizona
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Oh yeah, Melancon has it. He throws a fastball between 92-97 mph. During his elbow problems, it was closer to 92, but he has since regained his power fastball. He compliments it with a plus curveball, used to get the strikeout. He also throws a changeup, which is above average. He has major strike potential, punching over a batter per inning in college. He followed that up during his brief minor league stint this season (he signed late) with 9 Ks in 8 innings. Although his arsenal is excellent, his main weapon is the deceptiveness of his delivery. He throws up-down, bringing the ball in on a sharp angle to the batter. It adds a lot of spark to his curveball and changeup.

Command: When healthy, Melancon can command all three of his pitches with expert precision. Health was the only reason that a closer of Melancon's skills slipped to the 9th round. He was the consensus top closer in the country at the time. He is no Huston Street, Craig Hanson, or J.B. Cox, but he isn't too far behind. It looks like his health is back with him. If so, he could be a deadly force in the minor leagues. He has better stuff than Cox (although Cox is a much more reliable and accomplished pitcher). Melancon is currently pitching in Hawaii, although with mixed results.

Outlook: Melancon should continue on the same track that Cox did in the minors. He should pitch about 20 innings of middle relief (the Yankees prefer that their star relief pitchers pitch as much as possible instead of just save situations) in Tampa before (if he pitches well) moving up to Trenton. Melancon certainly has the ability, given health, to find his way to New York by 2008. He has been mentioned as a possible successor to Mariano Rivera, and probably has a better chance of fulfilling that role than Cox does.

Grades: Ceiling A-, Health C-, Chance of Reaching Majors 50%, Comparison: Jose Valverde

Prospect Profile: Jeff Karstens (#18)

2006-11-06T22:34:00.000-05:00

Age: 24
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 170
Drafted: 19th Round in 2003 out of Texas Tech.
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Karstens throws an average fastball at 90-91 mph. He has a decent slider, which is one of the better in the Yankee system. It used to be his out pitch. He throws a curveball in the mid 70s, but he only really throws it when behind in the counting and needing a strike. His main out pitch has become an above average 78 mph changeup, which he uses to get a significant amount of weak fly balls and pop ups. He can throw a slightly slower heavy fastball, but rarely ever uses that pitch.

Command: Karstens is a major league prospect not because he has one particularly good pitch or a good fastball, but because he can consistently throw all four pitches for strikes. He locates his curveball especially well. Karstens functions well when he is able to keep his pitch count down and force contact on batters. He gets tired easily into higher pitch counts and his control suffers.

Outlook: Karstens is rated so high purely because he is such a fair bet. His minor league record indicates that Karstens is incredibly average. Good control. Average velocity. Four average pitches. Average strikeouts. Karstens just uses his skill to pitch good fundamental baseball. He changes speeds and throws strikes. If he continues to attack hitters and throw the right pitch at the right time he will have a very long replacement level major league career. His future might be in a Ramiro Mendoza role, thanks to his lack of ability to sustain high pitch counts. His health record is as good as it can get.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health A, Chance of Reaching Majors 95%, Comparison: Rodrigo Lopez

Prospect Profile: Angel Reyes (#19)

2006-11-05T23:21:00.000-05:00

Age: 19
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 170 lbs
Signed: International Free Agent in 2004 out of the D.R.
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Left

Stuff: Reyes is the only lefty pitcher who is a serious prospect in the Yankee system. He is the only lefty with a plus fastball (93-95 mph). He has a plus curveball and has just started to learn a changeup. His changeup is about 12-13 mph slower than his fastball with his curveball a few ticks slower than that. His fastball has deception and electric movement. Reyes is very raw, but his velocity and curveball are advanced well beyond his young age.

Control: Reyes came into the GCL season with a reptuation of wildness. As is a common theme with such a young player, he had trouble repeating his mechanics coming into this short season, but got straightened out and posted decent walk numbers. He got to show his stuff against more advanced competition this year after the GCL season ended with Staten Island. He pitched 46.2 innings with the GCL Yankees, striking out 45 while posting an ERA of 1.35. He followed this dominating performance up with an equally dominating 16 strikeouts in 17 innings of 1.54 ERA ball. He walked just 20 the whole time. This dominating performance follows two excellent years in the DSL as a 17 and 18 year old. Reyes could not have been better in his first season of American baseball.

Outlook: Reyes, the only serious lefty prospect in the Yankee system, may have some troubles remaining as a starter. His 3 pitch repetoire is excellent, but his small frame could impede his durability and ability to go deep into games. The bullpen is a common place for flame throwing small pitchers. That said, it would not be unprecedented for Reyes to remain a starter. He has the stuff and poise to progress quickly throughout the Yankee minor league system. He will start in a deep Charleston rotation next season. He may be a leading candidate for promotion to Tampa if he pitches well (and if there are spots open in another crowded rotation).

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B, Chance of Reaching Majors 25%, Comparison: Erik Bedard, pre-Surgery.

Prospect Profile: George Kontos (#20)

2006-11-02T23:17:00.000-05:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
Drafted: 5th Round in 2006 out of Northwestern University
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: George Kontos has a nasty fastball. It tops out in the mid 90s, but he primarily throws it as a 2-seamer. Watching him on TV, I saw exactly why Kontos was picked in the 5th round despite a terrible college record. His stuff is just electric. He also throws a straigher 4-seamer, a decent change (it used to be about 84-85 mph, compared to a 94 mph fastball, but the Yankee coaches refined it and it's now in the 78-80 range). His best pitch is however his slider, and he gets a lot of swing and misses with it. It is probably the best or second best slider in the Yankee farm system. He has a curveball but doesn't use it too much.

Command: Kontos had a bad record of walking people in college. He walked 123 in 219.2 innings in three college years, including 53 in 95.1 this season. However, this was one case where the scouts were able to tell what statheads like myself could not. Scouts said that he did not have control problems; he simply was forced to nibble against aluminum bats. His mechanics were sound. As soon as he met wooden bats, Kontos excelled. The inside third of the plate opened to him and the strikes came like crazy. He pounded his slider to righties and located his fastball like a seasoned pro. In his 78 innings, Kontos only walked 19.

Outlook: I am a huge Kontos fan. He is probably my favorite prospect on this list. He has a first round slider and a great fastball to go along. His future is certainly going to be determined by the development of his changeup. Without a reliable third pitch, his future is in the bullpen. The Yankees seem confident however that Kontos will stay in the rotation (they are less confident in Tim Norton, who is primarily a fastball pitcher). If his changeup becomes an average or better pitch, look for a major steal from the 5th round pick. He has handled significant workloads between college and Staten Island (over 160 innings this season) and has a clean bill of health. I would not be surprised to see him pitch in Trenton at some time during 2007. I am a fan.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health A-, Chance of Reaching Majors 30%, Comparison: I really don't know who to compare Kontos to. Maybe you guys have an idea?

Prospect Profile: Zach McAllister (#21)

2006-11-01T18:11:00.000-05:00

Age: 18
Height: 6'5" (6" taller than two years ago)
Weight: 230 (60 lbs heavier than two years ago)
Drafted: 3rd Round in 2006 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: McAllister is in the midst of a major change in pitching style. Due to rapid growth, he has become much more of a power pitcher than he used to be. He was signed throwing around 90, mostly throwing 2 seam fastballs and changeups. The heavy sinking action on his fastball was enough for him to get by. The Yankees, seeing his newfound power frame, decided to change his style immensely. They got him throwing a 4-seamer, adding a lot of velocity (it's hard to tell what he is throwing at now. Some reports have him as high as 93). He is still 18 years old and will certainly get stronger as he puts muscle on his big body. His change is average, although improving. His slider was a plus pitcher in High School, but we'll see if he replaces it with a curveball like Hughes did.

Command: A finessed pitching style has one advantage: the pitcher learns how to pitch instead of throw. McAllister has phenominal command of his fastball for his age, and is very aware of the batter when on the mound. His strategic approach could be a serious boon if he develops a power fastball. His pitching mind is years ahead of his peers. In this regard, he has been commonly compared to Phil Hughes (although Hughes has a much better fastball than McAllister, so don't read too much in to the comparison). He prefers to get the groundball over the strikeout.

Outlook: McAllister is incredibly young, so this one is tough to call. He should start the year in Charleston, and likely will stay there for the entire season. His first priority will be improving his curveball. His second priority will be adding muscle and velocity. I have a lot of faith in McAllister's ability to outsmart A ball hitters, so 2007 should be a good season for Zach. Guile alone will not beat AA and beyond hitters though, so his future will be determined less by success in the Sally league and more by improvements across the board on his all of his pitches. His head is the only plus tool he posses right now, although the potential for a plus fastball is certainly there. He was the only Yankee pitcher signed out of the 2006 draft from High School.

Grade: Ceiling B+, Health Incomplete [too young], Chance of Reaching Majors 15%, Comparison: Freddy Garcia

Enjoying myself

2006-11-01T18:06:00.000-05:00

I can sincerely say that I have been thoroughly enjoying writing these prospect profiles. In fact, I am almost regretting starting with the top 30 Yankee prospects instead of 40 or 50. Hell, maybe I'll expand the list later.

I'm an avid reader of virtually every major Yankee blog on the internet. Bloggers have a lot of trouble (myself included) finding things to write during the offseason. I will do my best not to resort to hot-stove speculation cliches during these months, which I was very guilty of when discussing the Alex Rodriguez trade. I am no journalist, but I will do my best to hold myself to true journalistic standards. The feedback has been very heartwarming.

Don't worry, there will be plenty of Torre bashing to come. I am determined not to simply rehash my old arguments for another offseason and season. I currently am silent on this issue simply because any further comment would either be useless speculation on the inner workings of the Yankee clubhouse or reptition of old information.

Prospect Profile: Tim Norton (#22)

2006-11-01T11:39:00.000-05:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 230 lbs
Drafted: 7th round in 2006 out of UConn.
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Norton sports a 92-95 mph fastball, thanks to his big power pitcher frame. He was drafted with a reputation of having very poor mechanics in his pitching motion. The Yankee staff in Staten Island cleaned that up, and he dominated. He throws a hard breaking slider, which is top-notch. He compliments it with an above average splitter. When pressed, he usually resorts to the slider over the splitter, which Yankee coaches are trying to reverse. He is also working on a changeup. He came out of college throwing a Slurve/Forkball combo instead of Slider/Splitter. The Yankee coaches changed this and the results showed.

Command: After cleaning up his mechanics, Norton took hold of the strike zone and never gave it up. He posted a team best 83 Ks in 72 innings, allowing just 12 walks. He posted the best ERA for a starting pitcher on the team at 2.60, to go along with two dominating playoff performances. He is very good at locating his fastball and slider, although his splitter needs work in that regard. His consistent, mature approach on the mound reflects his four years of college experience.

Outlook: I like Norton a lot, but I am a little skeptical of his potential. His college record is lackluster, with his only real stellar year being 2006. He never struck out too many batters, walked a lot, and didn't pitch a ton of innings. That said, Norton posted excellent peripheral numbers against wooden bats this summer. There has been a lot of speculation that he could end up in the bullpen, due to the lack of a third reliable pitch. With his pitchers frame, he could crank the radar gun up to 96-97 in shorter stints. I don't entirely disagree with this. The Yankees will see how he does in 2007 as a starter before making any decisions. Norton does not show all the signs of a short season bust that Zach Kroenke showed in 2005 (Kroenke had sub-par K/BB numbers and only pitched 39 innings. Norton had some of the best K/BB numbers in the league and pitched almost twice that).

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health B+, Chance of Reaching Majors 40% (20% as a starter). Comparison: Brett Myers.

Prospect Profile: Colin Curtis (#23)

2006-10-31T14:55:00.000-05:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 204 lbs
Drafted: 4th Round in 2006 out of Arizona State University
Position: Centerfield
Bats: Left

Tools: Curtis is an excellent athlete. His range in centerfield is superb; he is probably the fourth fastest prospect in the organization behind Brett Gardner, Justin Christian, and Austin Jackson. He has an excellent approach to the strike zone (walking more times than he struck out in college). His power is very weak, although he's not Joey Gathright. He arm is strong for a centerfielder. His smooth swing and mature approach will allow him to hit for high averages in the major leagues.

Performance: Curtis played at Arizona State for three years, with a great deal of success. In 173 games, he hit .328/.426/.460 with 118 BBs, 107 Ks, 13 HR and 40 2bs. He stole 50 bases. He transitioned well to the pitching-dominated Staten Island Yankees, hitting .311/.361/.437 (including a 3 game stint with the GCL Yankees). He only stole 5 bases in 47 games. He cut his K rate down, striking out only 19 times (walking 13 times). His defense matched his reputation. He helped lead an excellent Staten Island team to the Ny-Penn League Championship.

Outlook: Curtis is basically the outfield version of Mitch Hilligoss, with a little more athleticism. He is about as safe a 4th round pick as they come. He will probably never develop much of a home run swing, but is solid in all other aspects of the game. He should move quickly, in a similar way that we saw Brett Gardner move this year. He will start the year in Tampa, and if he does well he will end it in Trenton. We could see him in New York in September of 2008. He lacks the ability to be a star, but his plate discipline and athleticism will ensure him to be at least a major league bench player some day.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health A-, Chance of Reaching Majors 50%. Comparison: Dave Roberts.

Prospect Profile: Mitch Hilligoss (#25)

2006-10-29T11:13:00.000-05:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 200 lbs
Drafted: 6th round in 2006 out of Purdue
Position: Shortstop/Third Base
Bats: Right

Tools: The only tool that Hilligoss lacks is power. He has an incredibly efficient swing, which will result in high batting averages throughout his career. It is quick, mechanically sound, and he compliments it with superior strike zone judgement. A college scout once called him "The best pure hitter I have ever seen". That said, for all the praise he profiles to hit less than 10 home runs in a season, slugging near .400. His defense is excellent at shortstop, even though he was moved to 3rd base temporarily for the short season. His arm is especially strong, and he is quite the athlete.

Performance: In three college seasons, hit he .378/.421/.521, with a 57/45 K/BB ratio and 12 in 163 games. He stole 49 bases over that time. He had mixed results in Staten Island, hitting .292/.357/.352 in a strong pitchers league. He hit 3rd for Staten Island for the whole season, racking up 36 RBIs. Pinstripes Plus labeled him the best hitter in the short season.

Outlook: Hilligoss's outlook is muddled. His three extensive seasons in college have him earmarked for Tampa next season, with the possibility of a quick promotion to Trenton. There have been strong rumors that he will be converted to catcher. I can certainly understand this, considering his compact frame and light bat. I can't see Hilligoss being useful as a 3rd baseman, where he played in many of the his Staten Island games, due to the lack of power. That said, he could certainly put some muscle on and acquire Boggs-like power. His plate discipline and athletic build are a strong combination, which will at least assure him a major league bench spot one day.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health A-, Chance of Reaching Majors 50%, Comparison: Craig Counsell

Birds Win

2006-10-28T18:42:00.000-04:00

Baseball is an inherently unpredictable game. A level of parity exists in the sport that does not exist in the NBA or NFL. There is a strong level of parity in the NHL, but the best team still wins the vast majority of the time. Baseball is unique in that the difference between the best team and the worst team is about 20% in winning percentage.

I predicted every single playoff series wrong. I expected the Dodgers and Padres to beat the Mets and Cardinals, and then predicted a Mets victory in 6 games. I predicted a Yankee sweep of the Tigers and a Twins victory in 4 over the Athletics, and then I predicted the Athletics to win a dramatic game 7 against the Tigers. Even worse, I predicted a total domination series for the Tigers against the Cardinals, barely allowing a run in four games.

But things happened. Role players excelled. Pitchers were cracked. In the end, the Cardinals played significantly better than expected, and the Tigers gave them the opportunity to do so. I will wonder for a long time whether or not the long layoff killed the Tiger's momentum.

The offseason has officially begun. In 13 days, the free agents hit the market.

Maz out, Donny In

2006-10-27T12:58:00.000-04:00

As you've all probably heard by now, Lee Mazzili will not be coming back as the Yankee's bench coach. Don Mattingly will.

I do not profess to know much about the inner workings of the Yankee coaching staff. No one outside of the small circle of Yankee coaches and players does. However, this seems like an obvious step to set up the Yankee legend and 3 year hitting coach for a managerial job, and send a message to Torre (Maz was one of Torre's boys).

By all accounts, Mattingly was an excellent hitting coach. By all accounts he is very popular in the clubhouse. More importantly, Mattingly never played under Joe Torre. He played under managers like Billy Martin, Buck Showwalter, and Bucky Dent. He may have his own distinct philosophy of how to run a baseball team. This organization needs a change from the current philosophy.

I wonder who will take over as hitting coach.

Prospect Profile: Cody Ehlers (#25)

2006-10-27T12:39:00.000-04:00

Age: 24 (25 in April)
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 185 lbs
Drafted: 11th Round in 2003 out of the University of Missouri
Bats: Left

Tools: Cody is a rare small body 1st baseman. While not fast, he has quick reactions and glove work. His arm is strong (he was used as a pitcher on rare occassions in college) and accurate. He lacks slugging power, although has excellent bat control to both gaps. Mostly due to size he does not profile to hit a ton of home runs. His plate discipline is absolutely stellar, showing a mature and systematic approach to the plate. He never gets rattled, hitting very well with runners in scoring position.

Performance: Cody had a mixed college career. He stayed on for four years at Missouri. His freshman and junior years were not strong, but the other two absolutely were. He found his home run stroke as a senior, batting .364/.460/.693/ with 18 home runs (equal to 47 over 162 games). After being drafted, he faltered in short season ball, hitting below .200. Ehlers showed enough to the front office however to bring him back, initially placing him on the Trenton spring training roster. He spent the season in Charleston, posting solid numbers. He was promoted to Tampa late in the season, where he was slow to adjust. But adjust he did, hitting .298/.375/.487 in the extreme pitchers league (suppresses offense by 12%), with 18 home runs and 108 RBIs, while playing excellent defense. He was named Tampa's MVP.

Outlook: Ehlers now faces the challenge of AA. I believe he will do very well there. Hitters relying on raw tools and free swings are usually the ones who die out in AA. Ehlers succeeds more upon excellent mechanics and judgement than tools. He doesn't have a lot of room for error, as 2007 will be his age 25 season. With any luck, he'll be on the 40 man roster in 2008, just an injury away from the majors. Ehlers doesn't project to hit more than 20 home runs, so his starting ability at 1st is questionable, but his solid defense and ability to get on base could give him an opportunity to have a solid career.

Grades: Ceiling C, Health A-, Chance of Reaching Majors 45%. Comparison: Kevin Millar.

Prospect Profile: Tim Battle (#26)

2006-10-26T21:47:00.000-04:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180 lbs
Drafted: 3rd round out of High School in 2003
Bats: Right

Tools: Battle is all about tools. He has the ability to hit for power, take walks, run like the wind, and throw a cannon. The downside? He strikes out... a lot. Battle illustrates the difference between great walk taking ability and great plate discipline. Battle knows how to take a pitch for a walk, but he does not know how to manipulate the count to drive a ball. Instead, he takes far too many pitches, gets into bad counts, and swings and misses for the strikeout. He has Mike Cameron-like tools. He just needs to learn how to use it.

Performance: The only reason that Battle is not higher up on this list is that he has consistently not performed at the A- level in three years. He came closest in 2005 when he put up a .259/.335/.455 line. His raw power and walking ability were offset by his 195 strikeouts in 134 games. He cut down on the Ks in 2006, but his raw patience and power suffered at the same time, and he still struck out 140 times in the same playing time.

Outlook: I am pessimistic about Battle. On the surface, his ability to make more contact is a big leap forward. Unfortantely, he lost his ability to drive the ball. Battle certainly has the ability to be a late bloomer, but I wouldn't count on it. He will probably start the season in Charleston, marking his 4th season below Tampa. He is no longer a young toolsy kid who has an excuse. At least his defense is excellent.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B-, Chance of Reaching Majors 5%. Comparison: Mike Cameron

Prospect Profile: Francisco Castillo (#27)

2006-10-26T21:31:00.000-04:00

Age: 20 (just turned it this month)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 195 lbs
Drafted: International Free Agent out of the D.R. in 2005
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: R

Stuff: Castillo has plenty of it. He throws a moving fastball at 95 mph. He throws it with smooth delivery with some deception to it. He throws a plus slider to compliment it, and is working on a changeup. Overall, everything he throws is very raw and will likely improve as he ages/.

Command: Castillo, being so raw, needs to do some serious work on the command of his fastball. He walked more than a batter every three innings over his past two seasons in the minors. He can blow the 95 mph heat by A ball batters, but will need to locate it to beat more advanced ones. He commands his slider better than his fastball, but both are very raw.

Outlook: Castillo is a very hard pitcher to predict, purely because he is so young and inexperienced. Castillo will likely start the season in Charleston, and will do his best to mature his command and changeup. He is still very young with very little minor league experience under his belt, so he has time to make mistakes. Scout.com has speculated that Castillo is destined for the bullpen, where his two excellent pitches could make him a good setup man. It is also suggested that with age and shorter outing his fastball could climb a few mph higher.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B, Chance of reaching majors 10%, Comparison: To be honest, I don't know. He's too raw.

Prospect Profile: David Robertson (#28)

2006-10-26T12:44:00.000-04:00

Age: 21
Height: 5'11
Weight: 175 lbs
Drafted: 17th Round out of U. Alabama in 2006
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: David Robertson is on this list purely out of stuff. He throws both a 2 seamer and a 4 seamer in the mid 90s very consistently. He also throws a plus power slider in the mid 80s, along with an average cut fastball. The movement on all of his pitches is excellent. In his 127.2 college innings Robertson struck out 170 batters.

Command: This is where Robertson falters. In those same college innings, Robertson managed to walk 65. Scouts believe that the walking is not resulting from wildness but from nibbling. A transition to wood bats could help him immensely (similar to what the transition did to George Kontos), as he will be able to use the inside third of the plate to his advantage. Still, his control is what keeps him from being on the level of the other two Yankee big time relief prospects Mark Melancon and J.B. Cox.

Outlook: Robertson signed too late in 2006 to play in the minor leagues. Prior to signing, he absolutely dominated the Cape Cod League, earning playoff MVP honors. Robertson pitched 15 innings against the elite college hitters, striking out 15 while not allowing a hit or walk. This is significant because Robertson absolutely dominated wooden bats, and shined when the pressure was most severe (He struck out his final 6 batters to win the title). I think that Robertson may start in Charleston purely because of the loaded Tampa pitching staff, but he could be pushed up too. 2007 will be a telling year for him. If he can control his walks, Robertson could be an elite closer prospect in the minor leagues.

Grades: Ceiling A-, Health B, Chance of reaching majors 15%. Comparison: Ferdnando Rodney.

Sheffield

2006-10-25T16:37:00.000-04:00

Rotoworld recently had a little blurb up about the Yankees and Gary Sheffield. Looks like it is pretty likely that they will pick up his option and trade him. I think this is a great idea.

Gary Sheffield's value is high. He is a strong power hitting right handed corner outfielder who has only one year left on his contract. He has a strong reputation as an RBI guy. The Cubs, Giants, Astros, and Texas Rangers are all potential trade targets.

Who would he be traded for?

The Texas Rangers may be willing to give up Mark Teixeira in a package revolving around Sheffield, but it would probably require a top line pitching prospect like Tyler Clippard. I'd do Sheffield + Clippard for Teixeira in an instant, but I doubt it would be that simple. Teixeira would be under our control for the next three years. He is a right handed power bat to replace Sheffield and play an excellent 1st base, entering his prime years.

The Astros might throw in one of their better prospects for Sheff. Jason Hirsh or Hunter Pence come to mind. We might be able to trade him straight up for Brad Lidge too. I would do that swap any day of the week. Lidge had a bad year, but he has the potential to be absolutely astonishing.

The Cubs probably would give us Guzman or Veal for Sheffield. I can't see us getting Pie or Hill though.

The Giants don't have a lot of tradable assets. Matt Cain isn't going anywhere, although Brad Hennessy might.

I would also look toward the Mariners, Dodgers, or Phillies.

Prospect Profile: Bronson Sardinha (#29)

2006-10-25T12:34:00.000-04:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 195 lbs
Drafted: 1st Round in 2001 out of High School
Position: Corner Outfielder (Who has also played 3b and SS in the past)
Bats: Left
Throws: Right

Tools: Sardinha has the classic physical tools of a 1st round shortstop out of High School. He is agile, fleet of foot, and has a strong arm. He reportedly handled 3b pretty well, but was moved to the outfield due to Eric Duncan and Alex Rodriguez. Sardinha shows moderate power (20 HR), and extremely good walking ability (Iso Patience of .083). His weakness is in the ability to hit for average (.269 career average) due to striking out too much (127 per 162 games).

Performance: Sardinha has been very inconsistent in the minor leagues, in part due to frequent position change. The Yankees had him set in the outfield for awhile, then moved him back to 3rd prior to the Alex Rodriguez trade. They then moved him to left field. Sardinha's career minor league line of .269/.352/.398 is very representative of his average year to year performance. He took a major step forward in the later part of 2006, hitting .286/.365/.492 after earning a call up to Columbus.

Outlook: I am a big fan of Sardinha. The only reason that I do not rate him higher is that no one really agrees with me. I can see Sardinha putting together a few hitting seasons similar to what Johnny Damon did this this season, minus the stolen bases. It seems like he has been around forever, even though he is only 23 years old. The one knock against Sardinha is that he may be left exposed to the Rule V draft this offseason. Luckily for him, the new CBA rule changes give the Yankees a little more breathing room in this regard. I could see Sardinha coming into play in 2008 as a call up.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health B+, Chance of Reaching Majors 40%. Comparison: Pre-Steroids Luis Gonzalez

Call Me Cashman

2006-10-24T23:06:00.000-04:00

I’ve talked a lot about the Yankee’s options, the strengths and weaknesses of those options, and the goals that they should try to attain. I haven’t given my own opinion yet. I would like to do that now, assuming that any reasonable trade that I propose may be enacted.

My general philosophy to baseball this three fold. Flexible rosters, pitching depth, and hitters who don’t make outs.

I want to trade Alex Rodriguez. I want to trade him because he is a very good player but hinders our flexibility. He is an excellent hitter, a consistent hitter, and has the potential to be great. But he’s no Albert Pujols. He is the Hank Aaron to Pujol’s Lou Gehrig. I want him traded because of the pieces we can get for him.

Problem is, Alex is a right handed bat. We have a ton of left handed bats in this lineup and not too many who can hit from the right side. I want him traded to the Dodgers for Wilson Betemit, Chad Billingely, and Jon Broxton. Save 16 million.

I want Mike Mussina resigned. Several bloggers have weighed in on this issue lately. Mike Mussina could be a real bargain over the next two years. He is 38 years old, but we’ve seen plenty of late career success out of craft elder pitchers in the league lately (Rogers, Maddux, Mussina, Moyer, Glavine), and he is coming off an excellent season. Mussina has also had the reputation of being an excellent teacher of younger pitchers, and that is someone whom I want talking to Phil Hughes about his changeup. Sign him to a 2 year 18 million dollar deal.

I want Jaret Wright traded for some kind of backup catcher. That shouldn’t be too hard.

I want Mike Myers traded too. His role is too select. He wasn’t even that good of a LOOGY this year. He takes up an essential bullpen slot that could go to someone else. I will sign Ray King to take his spot to a 1 year, 3 million dollar deal. Ray King is an effective left handed reliever who, although best used as a LOOGY, is certainly capable of pitching to the odd right handed hitter.

As for backup infielders, Wes Helms comes to mind. His right handed bat came off a monster season in Florida, primarily against left handed pitching. He could play 3^rd and 1^st, plus a little outfield. I would platoon him with Aaron Guiel. To play the middle infield position, Alex Cora of Boston could prove to be very useful. I would sign them both to 2 year deals worth about 1.5 million per year. Andy Phillips is placed on waivers.

Melky returns as the 4^th outfielder, with Kevin Thompson being promoted to fill the 5^th spot.

The bullpen and rotation currently look as follows: Wang, Mussina, Billingsely, Johnson, X, plus Mariano, Farnsworth, Proctor, Broxton, King, and one spot open for a long reliever. I want to give Rasner and Karstens the opportunity to battle for these two spots in spring training. The winner gets the starting job; the loser the long relief job. Steve White, Phil Hughes, and Tyler Clippard might also enter this picture.

25 Man Roster:

CF Damon L
SS Jeter R / Cora
RF Abreu L / Thompson
DH Giambi L
C Posada S / Backup
LF Matsui L / Cabrera
1b Helms R / Guiel
2b Cano L
3b Betemit R

RHSP Wang
RHSP Mussina
RHSP Billingely
LHSP Johnson
RHSP Rasner/Karstens

RHRP Rivera
RHRP Farnsworth
RHRP Broxton
RHRP Proctor
LHRP King
RHRP Rasner/Karstens

I really like this roster. The flexibility of the bench is almost unheard of. Helms can play all four corners. Melky and Guiel can play all three outfield positions, plus 1^st for Guiel. Betemit, while being the primary 3b, can play 2b and SS. Cora can play 3b, 2b, and SS very well. All can hit fairly well for bench players, and field their positions.

The bullpen is much improved. Farnsworth hopefully will recover from his back problems. King is an upgrade, as are the long relievers. Broxton and Proctor form a very strong duo leading up to the big two. Broxton may just be the closer of our future.

The starting rotation is both deep and flexible. One of the strongest reasons why young players are valuable is that they have options. If one of Billingley, Karstens, or Rasner falters, we will have White, Hughes, and Clippard waiting at AAA.

The biggest gain here? The Yankees shed over 35 million in salary. The new CBA will apparently raise the luxury tax level to 148 million. This frees up a significant amount of money toward getting below that threshold. We get key pieces in Broxton, Billingely, and Betemit for years to come.

Prospect Profile: Alan Horne (#30)

2006-10-24T18:05:00.000-04:00

Here I begin my offseason series on the top 30 Yankees prospects. Alan Horne is #30.

Age: 23
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 195 lbs
Drafted: 11th Round in 2005 out of the University of Florida
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Alan Horne features a lightly sinking fastball topping out at 94-96 mph. He throws a plus 12-6 curveball that has very strong bite to it. He also throws an above average slider. He is a very experienced pitcher who knows how to use all of his pitches.

Command: Alan Horne has been very inconsistent with his command since he had Tommy John surgery in 2004. When Horne is on, his stuff is dominating. When he is off, he has a lot of trouble throwing any of his three pitches for strikes. He has looked intimidated at times in Tampa. That said, his stuff is solid and if he learns not to nibble he could become a serious A.J. Burnett type pitcher.

Outlook: Horne could be really dangerous as he develops. With a little more muscle on his frame, Horne could be topping out at 97-98 mph. Horne was drafted in the 1st round by Cleveland a few years ago for a reason. The injury concerns and general surplus of Yankee starting pitching could land him in the bullpen if he fails as a starter. Horne should start 2007 in Tampa, but could move to Trenton fairly quickly.

Grades: Ceiling: A-, Health C-, Chance of Reaching Majors 30%. Comparison: A.J. Burnett

More Arod Rumors

2006-10-19T11:40:00.000-04:00

We can expect a lot of these, but the latest rumor comes courtesy of the Contra Costa Times.

Alex Rodriguez + cash to Oakland for Eric Chavez, one of Rich Harden or Dan Haren, and a prospect or two. The prospects? Daric Barton could enter into the equation, but I would ask for one of Travis Buck or Jason Windsor. Buck is a 23 year old 2005 draft pick out of ASU. He is an athletic power hitting outfielder. He could be very good, and is virtually major league ready. Jason Windsor is even closer to the major leagues. He is a 24 year old power pitcher who dominated AAA.

But the real jewels of the deal are Chavez and Harden/Haren. I would stay away from the injury prone Harden, but Dan Haren has all the trappings of an excellent pitcher. He's like a mini-Halladay, throwing strikes and getting ground ball outs. Eric Chavez is a pretty good bet to hit close to his career .268/.350/.484 line, but his left handed power swing may also benefit from Yankee stadium ala Johnny Damon. He also is consistently about 15 runs above average on defense. He isn't Alex Rodriguez, but he doesn't suck either.

Ten Trades

2006-10-17T20:53:00.000-04:00

Its time for the fun part. I am going to propose 10 potential trades for Alex Rodriguez, and then follow up by giving my opinion on them. They are in no particular order.

# 1To Anaheim: Alex Rodriguez, 8 million dollars
To Kansas City: Kenny Morales, Dallas McPherson,
To New York: Mark Teahen, Ervin Santana, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli

Anaheim manages to get Alex Rodriguez while keeping Jered Weaver, Brandon Wood, and all of the rest of their high ceiling prospects. Kansas City removes a road block to Alex Gordon's soon to be brilliant career, and New York gets four good young players. Ervin Santana will immediately become the #3 starter behind Mussina and Wang. Jeff Mathis or Mike Napoli (probably Napoli) becomes Posada's backup and future replacement. Casey Kotchman splits time at 1b with Jason Giambi.

#2 To Anaheim: Alex Rodriguez, 8 million Dollars
To New York: John Lackey, Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli, Casey Kotchman

The Yankees do not gain a 3rd baseman through this deal, but they do acquire an ace pitcher. John Lackey is one of the better young pitchers in the game. He would be under our control for the next three seasons. The Yankees attain a catcher for the future and a 1st baseman. Anaheim's pitching weakens, but they retain most of their young trading chips.

#3 To Anaheim: Alex Rodriguez
To New York: Bartolo Colon, Brandon Wood, Ervin Santana, Eric Aybar

Colon has 1 year at 14 million left on his contract. The 2005 Cy Young winner spent most of 2006 injured. He may not be ready to start the season. The Yankees take on this big question mark piece of salary in return for top prospect Brandon Wood (who could be moved to 3b), in addition to future utility man Aybar. Ervin Santana enters the rotation. Bartolo Colon starts the season on the DL and possibly returns to Cy Young form.

#4 The Chicago Cubs: Alex Rodriguez
To New York: Carlos Zambrano, Angel Guzman, Felix Pie, Eric Patterson.

I really don't know why the Cubs would do a trade like this, but they have been rumored to want Arod badly. Carlos Zambrano is a free agent after this year, and is coming off a 115 walk season. There is no way that the Yankees take him alone for Arod. Pie and Patterson would start the season at AAA, but could be quick promotions. Angel Guzman could be given a look in Spring Training. I am not a big fan of the Cubs as a trading partner.

#5 To Chicago White Sox: Alex Rodriguez
To New York: Mark Buerhle, Brandon McCarthy, Josh Fields

This trade has been rumored in Chicago to be offered by New York. Buerhle is coming off a season roughly equal to Randy Johnson's, and is a free agent in one year. McCarthy is a young solid starter, and Josh Fields has .290/.375/.520 and good defense all over him. I'd take it, although if I were Cashman I would try to extract David Riske.

#6 To Chicago White Sox: Alex Rodriguez
To New York: Joe Crede, Mark Buerhle, Brandon McCarthy

I don't have a lot of faith in Joe Crede. He posted just a .323 OBP this season, and derived virtually all of his value from his 30 home runs. Crede never hit more than 22 home runs before and never posted an OBP higher than .311. I don't trust it, or his bad back. I pass on any deal that includes Crede as more than a throw in.

# 7 To Philadelphia Phillies: Alex Rodriguez
To New York: Brett Myers, Gionvany Gonazalez

I can't see much of a deal to Philly, unless they had some real passion to part with their three top young pitchers by adding Cole Hamels to the deal. An alternate 3b would have to come from somewhere else.

#8 To Houston Astros: Alex Rodriguez, 8 million
To New York: Morgan Ensberg, Hunter Pence, Jason Hirsh

I really like this trade. The Astros use their new financial flexibility with the loss of Pettitte, Clemens, and the confirmed loss of Bagwell. Arod and Berkman form a nasty 1-2 punch which may finally succeed in unseating the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Yankees get an effective 3b in return, an excellent outfield prospect, and a huge power pitcher who dominated AAA. Too bad the Astros haven't expressed any interest in Alex yet.

#9 To the LA Dodgers: Alex Rodriguez
To New York: Wilson Betemit, Chad Billingsley, James Loney

The Dodgers are in dire need of home run power. They would convert LaRoche to 1st base, and sport the game's best offensive infield with Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Furcal, Jeff Kent and LaRoche. The Yankees recieve in return a replacement 3b, a major league tested future ace in Billingsley, and a left handed athletic 1st baseman to split time with Giambi in Loney.

#10 To the LA Dodgers: Alex Rodriguez
To New York: Andy LaRoche, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jon Broxton

In return for keeping their top young pitcher, the Dodgers give up Andy LaRoche instead of Wilson Betemit. Kuo, although not as talented as Billingsley, profiles a good #2/3 pitcher in the major leagues (his value is dimished due to injury), and Broxton is one of the best young relievers in the game.

I like a lot of these trades, although not all of them. If the Astros want Alex, they would make an excellent partner. I don't see trade to either Chicago team working very well. If the Dodgers want Alex (he strikes me as the Hollywood type), we deal could easily be worked out that benefits both sides. Although the best deal for the Yankees would include the Anaheim Angels and their crazy depth, I would be scared of empowering our enemy. If the offer big - I would take it. But I would make them pay through their teeth for a great player.

Alex Rodriguez is a first ballot hall of famer who will probably hit 140+ home runs for the team that he is dealt to over the next four years. He will probably knock in close to 500 runs, score 480 runs, and play decent defense at either third or short. That said, I still think that a trade could benefit the Yankees. The Yankees have a lot of pitching depth, but have even more offensive depth. We saw how much one of baseball's best lineups ever did for us.

In 2004 and 2005, fans and pundits incorrectly assumed that Alex was a poor clutch player. In 2006, the profesy was fulfilled. The pressure probably got to Alex. I feel sorry for him. He is not the robot that a prick like Manny Ramirez is. He can not shrug off his critics and stay relaxed like Derek Jeter. Unfortunately, New York fans would never accept him. He could very well rebound and have another 2005-like season next year. But Alex is 31 years old and may just have no more 45+ HR seasons left in him.

It is my opinion that Alex will put up one MVP season and three seasons similar to 2004/2006 over the next four years. For this reason, Alex should be traded. His value on the trade market is closer to the 2005 Arod than the 2004/2006 version. His defensive reputation is much stronger than teality. Alex has more value than he is worth in reality. If a great GM is like a shrewd stock trader, Alex has "sell" written all over him.

The Yankees have a chance to immediately interject significant young talent into their organizaiton with one single trade. We can set up members of the 2013 Yankees right now. But you cannot gain value without giving up value.

Alex Rodriguez Trade Part 3

2006-10-17T11:52:00.000-04:00

The next step to looking at an Alex Rodriguez trade is to determine where he could go, and what they could offer us. This will be the final post before I actually post ten different trades that I support.

There are three barriers to an Alex Rodriguez trade. First off, Alex has a no-trade clause. Although he wants to stay in New York, he has said that if the Yankees really want to trade him, he will agree to go elsewhere. However, it's hard to see Alex being traded to a non-contender. Alex doesn't strike me as a guy who would enjoy Kansas City too much. This probably eliminates Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Colorado. I could see him going to Washington, but only if they take steps toward building a winning franchise. I also can't see him going back to Texas, who already traded him away. Seattle would also be difficult.

The second barrier is Alex's salary. He is owed 64 million over the next 4 years. The Yankees are unlikely to throw in a ton of money in any deal to trade him away. This is a lot cheaper than the 25 million he is owed every year, but is still expensive. I cannot see the Brewers, Marlins, Athletics, Twins, or Braves affording him. Cleveland would have a tough time, but could in theory do it. Same with San Diego.

The third barrier is Alex's talent. The Yankees do not want to see him in the American League East, and would prefer to see him away from their other American League rivals. This eliminates Tampa, Baltimore, Toronto, and Boston. Trades to Anaheim, Detroit and the Chicago White Sox are certainly possible, but would be a harder sell. Oh yeah, and he isn't going to the Mets.

Who does this leave? This leaves the Dodgers, White Sox, Angels, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Tigers.

I am going to strike a few names right away. I don't see the Tigers, Diamonbacks, or Reds trading for Alex. I could see the Cardinals doing so, but they have so many concerns this offseason that they probably don't have the chips to do so.

Let's look at each organization.

Philadelphia:

The Phillies could certainly use a right handed power bat to back up Ryan Howard. They got almost zero production out of third base this season thanks to the flailing David Bell. But what would they offer in return?

Cole Hamels is one of the best young pitchers in the game today. That said, he's a very risky prospect. The 22 year old has managed exactly one semi-healthy season since he was drafted: 2006. He still only managed to pitch 132 innings. That said, he excelled in those innings, posting a 4.08 ERA despite pitching half his games in a bandbox. The 6'4" lefthander has some serious power in his arm, pitching in the mid 90s. But the injuries are a concern.

The Phillies might send back Brett Myers, who has been very good in the National League over the past two seasons. He is only 26 years old, has a history of neither being overworked nor sustaining injury, throws in the mid 90s with a power curve, and has been a near K per inning guy. Myers would be an excellent trading chip to return in a trade.

The Phillies top prospect is Giovany Gonzalez. He is the #9 ranked pitcher by Scout.com and just 21 years old in AA. He's no Phil Hughes, posting an ERA in the mid 4's in his first season, but is certainly would be a great chip to come our way. Throwing power from the left side doesn't hurt either.

I don't see a lot in terms of 3rd base potential in the Phillies organization. Any trade would have to involve another 3b coming in from a 3rd party in a seperate trade or free agent.

The Houston Astros

The Astros don't have a lot of chips, but do have a lot of extra payroll room. Any trade for Alex would probably be seen as an upgrade over Morgan Ensberg, who put together a nice season despite batting just .238. He is only being paid about four million dollars. He would certainly come back in a trade.

Pitching prospect Jason Hirsh is listed by Scout.com as the #11 pitching prospect in baseball. The 24 year old out of college looks to use his giant 6'8", 250 lb frame to overpower hitters. It has worked so far in the minors. He dominated AAA this year with a 2.10 ERA. He could be a real gem.

Hunter Pence is listed by Scout.com as the #8 outfield prospect in baseball. He has some serious crudentials, being drafted in the 2nd round out of Texas and then posting a .302/.376/.552 line in three minor league seasons. He will go to AAA this season, and will be on the cusp of the major leagues. Pence has J.D. Drew offensive potential written all over him, without the injuries.

The San Fran Giants

The Giants have a lot of reason to want Arod this offseason. They are likely losing Barry Bonds, both in salary and ability. Alex is not only cheaper, but can be relied on to play 150+ games a year, something that the older Bonds could not. Problem is, they don't have a whole lot to offer in return.

Matt Cain is one of baseball's top young pitchers. The 22 year old has succeeded in a major league season and a half, after blowing through the Minor Leagues. At that young age, he was able to strike out 179 this year. The Giants have limited the innings on his young arm, gradually building it up. It's hard to see the Giants parting with him however, although they did send Boof, Joe, and Fran to the Twins for A.J. Talk about a bad trade.

The Giants don't have much more. 2006 1st rounder Tim Lincecum can't be traded for another six months, but could in theory be included as a "Player to the named later" in the deal. He is an excellent prospect out of college. He could be major league ready by spring training 2009.

The Giants have little else.

The LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have a one of baseball's best farm systems, and as a result could provide some incredibly attractive options for any team looking to trade with them. They also have the payroll room, and the need for Alex. Their top two home run hitters managed to hit only 20 out each.

Chad Billingley has future ace written all over him. His major league debut was as impressive as his minor league numbers. He could very well be the centerpiece of an Arod trade. He could be as good as Mussina or Wang right now, and is just 22 years old.

Wilson Betemit is a 24 year old formerly hot prospect out of the Braves system. He now looks to be a decent replacement level 3b, the type of guy who could be very good on a contender's bench. That said, he could provide a stopgap in the position until better options are provided. The Dodgers wouldn't have a huge problem parting with him, as they were ready to trade him for Scott Proctor in the begining of the season.

Andy LaRoche, in stark contrast to Betemit is a supreme prospect. LaRoche just hit AA, but has torn apart the minor leagues during his time there. LaRoche has the power, discipline, and baseball sense to hit like Chipper Jones in the major leagues. He could certainly come in return for Alex Rodriguez. There has been speculation that LaRoche will eventually end up at 1st base.

Jamie Loney was an athletic 1st baseman drafted by the Dodgers in 2002. He looked like a bust, but the careful nurturing of the excellent Dodgers farm system turned him in to a success in 2006. He posted a .547 slugging percentage in 2006 in the major leagues. He has Lyle Overbay potential.

Hong-Chih Kuo would be our second pitcher out of Taiwan if we were to trade for him. After successful seasons in 2005 at AA and 2006 at AAA, Kuo has made his impact in the MLB for the Dodgers. He is very talented, and could come to the Yankees if the Dodgers refuse to part with Billingsley. John Broxton is also an excellent young reliever who might be had in any deal.

The LA Angels OA

The Angels are an interesting option. On one hand, they are a constant thorn in the Yankee's side and Alex would immediately boost their team. On the other hand, the Angels are the one team that both has a number of excellent young pitchers and position players that they would be willing to trade to meet our needs. Any trade to the Angels would require more return than a trade to other teams, for this reason.

The Angels have the pitching trio of John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar who could potentially come our way in a trade. One of those guys would absolutely be expected to be Yankees after an Alex Rodriguez trade. This doesn't even mention Jered Weaver or Bartolo Colon.

In addition, they have a wealth of position prospects/rookies including Howie Kendrick, Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, Mike Napoli and Kenny Morales. One or two of this group would certainly come back in a trade.

The Angels have a number of established major league regulars who could be traded, specifically Scot Shields and Chone Figgins. Shields is one of the better relief pitchers in the game, and Figgins is an excellent utility player.

Looking down further, the Angels have shortstop Brandon Wood, pitcher Nick Adenhart, starter Joe Saunders, and outfielder Terry Evans. Shortstop Eric Aybar could also be a throw in to the deal or the 19 year old star pitcher Tommy Mendoza.

The Angels have a huge mass of young players, putting them in a unique position. Their current offense leaves a lot to be desired. They could very well deal a few young players and a young pitcher for a star hitter while still maintaining the best farm system in baseball. That is how deep they are. If I were Brian Cashman, I'd give them a call.

The Chicago Cubs

Rumors have circulated recently about Lou Piniella wanting the Cubs to make a push for Alex Rodriguez. I can't see it happening, mainly because the organization has little to give in return. Ramirez is going to become a free agent, and they are very short on position prospects.

Carlos Zambrano is a free agent in one year. He had an impressive system, posting a 3.41 ERA, despite 115 walks. I would take Zambrano, but I would question his control issues agains the American League. Zambrano has been an excellent pitcher for three years, but could not be the only piece in an Arod trade.

The Cubs also have Rich Hill and Angel Guzman among their young pitchers. Both have had injury problems and would be risky bets. That said, they are both major league ready and could provide immediate help to the Yankees.

Cubs outfield prospect Felix Pie is one of the more overrated prospects in baseball. Pie is an all-tools no-sense guy who still needs to learn the strike zone. He is very young and in AAA, but shouldn't be counted on any time soon. He is ranked #10 overall in outfielders by Scout.com, but I think that number is soft.

Eric Patterson is a 23 year old 2b/SS prospect who is listed by Scout.com as the #2 2b prospect in baseball. Mark Pawelek is a 20 year old who has some potential to be a decent pitcher. That said, these guys aren't really desirable by the Yankees and shouldn't be more than throw ins.

The Cubs simply would be stupid to trade with us for Alex Rodriguez. They don't have the depth to absorb a hit to their farm system like that. Of course, Mark Prior could enter the discussion.

The Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have also been rumored to be interested in Alex Rodriguez. The recent report that I read was a Mark Buerhle + Josh Fields + Brandon McCarthy for Alex Rodriguez deal. It's interesting, but do the Sox have anything else to offer?

The White Sox had five starters go 196 or more innings. Unfortunately, they also had 5 starters with ERAs over 4.27. With a little more offense, the White Sox could see their win total go through the roof, with such an efficient yet average pitching staff.

Mark Buerhle was the ace of the championship team, but through overuse and diminishing strikeout totals, his ERA rose to 4.99 this season. I would be very worried and skeptical about him if traded to us, especially considering that he is a free agent after this upcoming season. He cannot be the centerpiece of a trade.

Josh Fields is an athletic 3rd baseman in the White Sox farm system. He has been compared to Drew Henson, except that this ex-quarterback has performed in the minor leagues. He recently posted a .900 OPS at AAA. Fields can be seen as a long term replacement for Alex Rodriguez at the hot corner. He is listed by Scout.com as the 3rd best 3b prospect in the minors.

Joe Crede is the current White Sox 3rd baseman. He has suffered from back problems in the past, and in 2006 posted his first real good season ever. That said, his OBP was just .323 and his Slg% barely topped .500 in a home run inducing ballpark. He has had back problems. Despite the great defense, I wouldn't touch him.

Brandon McCarthy is an excellent young pitcher who would be a major league starter already if not for so many White Sox pitchers blocking him. He has been effective out of the bullpen and has proven everything he can in the minor leagues. I would love to have him in the Yankee rotation.

The White Sox have little else, but Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland may also enter the equation. David Riske and Mike MacDougal could come over out of their bullpen.

Wow, that took longer than expected. The big finish is coming up, hopefully later tonight.

Alex Rodriguez Trade Part 2

2006-10-15T22:04:00.000-04:00

There has been a lot of newspaper speculation lately on the Alex Rodriguez trade, even amounting to rumors of a trade centered around Alex and Mark Buerhle. I doubt that there is a lot of merit to this trade, primarily because I can't see Cashman offering around for Alex after Cory Lidle's tragic death so recently. Still, it's an interesting possibility.

I stated previously that the second key question in an Alex Rodriguez trade is pretty simple: Who the hell replaces him?

Chicago offers two options in Joe Crede and Josh Fields. Crede showed some power this season, but his lack of on base ability makes me want to pick Fields over him. Fields recently posted a .900 OPS at AAA, while playing decent defense. He turns 24 in December.

One of Kansas City's young third basemen (Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon) could very easily be included in some sort of 3 way deal.

Anaheim offers Dallas McPherson - but he had a very poor and injury filled 2006. Chone Figgins is another option, but is unlikely to provide more than a replacement level of offense. His defense is excellent though.

The Dodgers offer two young options in Andy LaRoche and Wilson Betemit. Betemit is another replacement level player who plays good defense, while LaRoche is a major prospect who has yet to hit the majors, with Chipper Jones hitting abilities.

Aramis Ramirez has a clause in his contract which could potentially put him on the free agent market this winter. Ramirez is probably the best all around player listed here. He would replace Alex Rodriguez fairly well, but has a reputation of being hotheaded and a bad teammate.

Hank Blalock from Texas is rumored to be on the trading block, although a lot of questions persist about whether or not he can hit outside of Arlington. I would shy away from him, especially considering that the price tag would be high.

Scott Rolen has been rumored to be fighting with the management over in St. Louis. He had a decent season, and has the defensive reputation of a God. He could be a very, very attractive option. The Cardinals are going to be so desperate for pitching this offseason that they might bite for a very small offer.

The Mariners would love to get rid of Adrian Beltre and his contract. Although he won't slug .660 ever again, Beltre could provide excellent defense and a .270/.340/.460 line from third base. Seattle would have to subsidize the contract significantly though, as Beltre is owed 12 million dollars for each of the next three seasons.

Chad Tracy may be the odd man out in Arizona, where the infield suddenly has seemed very crowded. Tracy could provide a decent .280/.360/.460 line of offense for a cheap price tag, although his defense wouldn't be a big upgrade to Arod's.

Morgan Ensberg had a poor season for the Astros, but still managed to post a .858 OPS. He is a definate buy-low candidate, after batting just .238 this season.

Aubrey Huff is a free agent, but also a terrible 3b. Still, at 29 years old he is still in his prime and has had some all star years in the past.

Those are some interesting names. The next post is the big one: What trades are possible?

Alex Rodriguez Trade: Part 1

2006-10-12T17:27:00.000-04:00

Trading a player as talented as Alex Rodriguez is a monumental point in the history of any franchise. A lot of questions need to be answered in depth in order to make a logical decision. Those questions are:

1. What value does Alex Rodriguez bring to the team?
2. Who would replace Alex Rodriguez if he were dealt?
3. What teams would be interested in Alex? Is there a chance that he could be traded?
4. Is this the best thing for the team?

I will attack #1 right now. For the record, my answer to #4 is "Yes".

1. What Value does Alex Rodriguez bring to the team?

Time for the numbers.

Alex Rodriguez was 29th in the league this year with a VORP of 50.4. He hit an excellent .290/.392/.532 (or roughly equal to Hideki Matsui in 2004). Alex was 5th in VORP among 3rd baseman, trailing Miguel Cabrera, Garrett Atkins, David Wright, and Chipper Jones.

The average AL batter hit .275/.339/.437.

Various defensive measures try to rate Arod. The traditional Zone Rating has him at -8 runs. Overall, that sounds about right to me.

This boils down to Alex being worth about 4-5 wins over replacement level. If Alex was replaced with a roughly .275/.339/.437 hitter, we would have won about 91-92 games.

In the Clutch, Alex Rodriguez was beyond terrible this season, which may reduce his value, but for now I am going to put Alex at 5 wins.

It is important that with any trade, the Yankees get back at least five wins worth of value over replacement level. Ideally, we would improve the team by getting more back.

Good Pitching Wins Championships

2006-10-12T14:01:00.000-04:00

I was contemplating not writing anything about baseball for a few days in the wake of Cory Lidle's tragic death. However, after thinking about it, I decided that the best way to show respect to a great lover of the game is to continue the vibrant and colorful debate which makes up a fan's love for the game. Cory Lidle was a great man who worked his ass off every second of the day to get to and stay in the major leagues. It was a long road for him, but he realised his dream. It is a shame that he died so young. As a fellow lover of flying, I feel for him.

I said in an earlier post that

"Great rotations are developed from within. The Braves did it. The dynasty Yankees did it. The 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox, and now the 2006 Athletics and Tigers are doing it. Pitchers are at their best before they reach the free agent market. "

Several have commented on the merits of that statement, and I find myself needing to change it. My real intent was to say "Good pitching wins championships, and pitchers are at their best before they reach free agency". There are exceptions of course, for example Curt Schilling, but the general rule is that pitchers decline much more rapidly than do hitters.

The dynasty Yankees developed only two key pitchers from within: Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. The rest of the rotation was made up of Roger Clemens, Hideki Irabu, Orlando Hernandez, David Cone, and David Wells. A lot of these guys violated the "good pitchers are young" rule, but all of them required young pitching to acquire.

A lot of great teams are built via the trade. Paul O'Neill, David Cone, Roger Clemens, and Chuck Knoblauch came to the dynasty team via trade. We got lucky with a lot of these players, as O'Neill came for virtually nothing while Roger Clemens cost us only David Wells, Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd. But Chuck Knoblauch cost us 1st round pick Eric Milton (then thought to be an excellent prospect) and Christian Guzman. Cone cost young pitching in the form of Marty Jarzen (who flopped, but was a top 22 year old prospect when traded).

The market is a lot tougher now. Teams got smarter, signing their arbitration eligible players to long term deals (Santana, Halladay), decreasing the number of players on the free agent market. The result? Very few top level pitchers will ever be available for just a check and a draft pick. To acquire a pitcher in the prime of one's career, the Yankees must do one of two things. They can build from within or trade value for value. Essentially, the two are linked.

Look at a guy like Steve White. Steve White is 24 year old and on the brink of the major leagues. He will probably never start significant games for the Yankees. He shows signs of being a decent major league pitcher, considering how thoroughly he dominated AA this season. However, he is 5th on the Yankee depth charts behind Hughes, Karstens, Rasner, and Clippard. White will probably be traded.

And that is a good thing. The second that White is traded, you'll hear a bunch of idiots from the New York Post or wherever whining about how the Yankees trade away all of their young pitching. But remember, trading away Cassey Fossum for Curt Schilling helped the Red Sox win a championship.

The trick is having enough depth to be able to trade Steve White away. If this was November 2004, there is no way that the Yankees can trade away a Steve White. He'd be needed to pitch for Jon Lieber or Kevin Brown. But the Yankees are in a position right now where they have the depth to both bring up promising young pitchers (Hughes, Clippard), and dangle some other prospects as bait to help build a championship team (Karstens, Rasner, White).

But also remember that it took Brad Halsey and Dionner Navarro to acquire Randy Johnson. Although Randy was the best pitcher in baseball in 2004, the lesson that is apparent is this: get a pitcher in the prime of his career, not the back end of it.

Good pitching is tough to come by. It takes good decisions by the front office, good scouting by those in the field, and good luck overall. The next aces of the new Yankee dynasty may come from free agency (Wells), trade (Clemens, Cone), or the farm system (Pettitte). But I do know that we will not win any championships until the overall pitching situation improves.

Cory Lidle Killed In Plane Crash

2006-10-11T17:26:00.000-04:00

Thirty four years young.

I have nothing to say.

Tap the Far East?

2006-10-11T12:50:00.000-04:00

The hottest name in the free agent market right now is Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka is a 26 year old phenom out of Japan. He won 17 games in 26 starts for the Seibu Lions, posting an ERA under 2.20. He throws between 90 and 94, and various scouts have described him as having four major league pitches (4 seam, slider [his best pitch], splitter, and changeup) with a deceptive delivery. Although rumored to throw the mythical "gyroball", that has recently been proven wrong.

Matsuzaka is not a free agent in the traditional sense. His team is taking bids using the "posting" system. Each interested team sends the Lions a sealed big of a dollar value. After three days, the bids are opened and the highest team wins the right to talk contracts with Matsuzaka's agent, Scott Boras. They are then free to sign Matsuzaka to a contract. Estimates of a size of bid for Matsuzaka have been between 15 and 30 million dollars, with the number probably more toward the latter. Scott Boras would likely request a 3 year deal worth somewhere around 40 million after the posting fee itself.

Somewhere close to 70 million dollars to three years of a pitcher? I don't care if his name is Roger Cleveland Alexander Maddux Clemens, I don't spend that on a guy who has yet to pitch an MLB ball. Matzusaka plays in Japan, where baseball is played in a much different style. There are a lot more Ichiro-type hitters there, and the general level of competition is much lower than here. In addition to that, pitchers in Japan pitch on an extra day of rest.

But 70 million over 3 years? If I am going to spend that much money, why not use it on a safer product like Barry Zito? There is no way that Zito is worth 70 million, but he is probably going to give you 210 innings of 3.80-4.20 ERA ball. In this day and age, that is valueable.

Matsuzaka may very well end up as an ace in the United States. 26 years old is very young for a free agent pitcher. On the other hand, he could end up being another Chan Ho Park, Hideki Irabu, Kaz Ishii, or Hideo Nomo. Some of those guys had good years, but the move to a 5 man rotation hurt all of their arms. 70 million is a lot of money, and the Yankees cannot keep constantly absorbing bad contracts.

I'll be excited if he pitches in a Yankee uniform, but it would still be a bad decision. We'll know relatively soon, because clubs have little more than one more day to place sealed bids.

Glad I Didn't Get My Hopes Up

2006-10-10T13:31:00.000-04:00

Well, it looks like the Fire Joe Torre blog is safe. Joe Torre is officially staying on for another year. He announced it in a press conference a few minutes ago.

I know, it's sad. In the words of Steve Lombardi of WasWatching.com, "If the Yankees do nothing, then nothing will happen."

Better hope that Phil Hughes decides to be a 21 year old ace.

Young Pitching

2006-10-10T11:54:00.000-04:00

I'm going to have a little fun today. Baseball Prospectus releases it's year "PECOTA" predictions, attempting to pin down the performance level of every major leaguer. I'm a strong advocate for staying away from the free agent market and using our pitching depth to fill the voids, which creates the next logical question. How good can they be?

Our candidates for promotion out of spring training next year are Steve White, Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Karstens, J.B. Cox, T.J. Beam, Darrell Rasner, and Sean Henn. I am going to give "my timeline and projection" for these young pitchers this year. Note, this is incredibly unscientific and completely meaningless. That said, it can be fun.

Offseason: The Yankees bring back Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, Chien-Ming Wang, and Carl Pavano.

Spring Training: The Yankees audition their pitching staff in Tampa. It is determined that Phil Hughes, although he could certainly do well in the major leagues right now, would be served well long term if he took a little more time to tighten up his changeup. Tyler Clippard, J.B. Cox, T.J. Beam, and Steve White are determined not ready to pitch in the major leagues. Sean Henn sees no spot for himself and is traded away . Darrell Rasner is promoted to the major league bullpen as a long man, and Jeff Karstens is made the Yankee's 5th starter.

April: While Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang succeed, Randy Johnson falters. Carl Pavano pitches marginally well, but is booed every time he takes the mound by Yankee fans. Jeff Karstens pitches about as well as Pavano.

May: Randy Johnson starts to recover, but his ERA is still north of 5. Carl Pavano sits on a tact and injures his shoulder, landing on the 60 day DL. Phil Hughes, who hasn't allowed a run in 15 innings, is promoted from AAA. Hughes immediately dominates.

June: Scott Proctor, after a stellar start to the season, sees his control falter. It is discovered that he is fatigued, and lands on the DL with some sort of shoulder or elbow injury. Brian Bruney, pitching fairly well, takes his responsibilities. Kyle Farnsworth is pitching excellent. The Yankees call up T.J. Beam, who pitches fairly well.

July: Brian Bruney goes down with some sort of elbow trouble, after throwing 30+ innings in June. The Fire Joe Torre blog is filled with accusations of Joe Torre ruining pitchers. J.B. Cox is called up from AAA. In the warm weather, Randy Johnson becomes marginally useful. Carl Pavano reinjures his arm while writing a letter to Angelina Jolie. Jeff Karstens sees his ERA fall below the league average.

August: Scott Proctor returns, sending Cox back to the minors until September. However, he is not effective. His velocity and control are both way down following shoulder trouble. By now, Hughes is being talked about as a no brainer for ROY, and possibly the Game 2 starter for the New York Yankees in the playoffs. Chien-Ming Wang, throwing his new cutter, finally learns to strike people out again. Wang is considered for the Cy Young award.

September: While trying to rehab the small hole in his buttox, Carl Pavano is hit by a bicycle. No one observes the event, but Pavano insists that it had two wheels. Steve White, who pitched fairly well in AAA, and Tyler Clippard are called up with the expanded rosters. Eric Duncan and Justin Christian are also called up to help the team. Kevin Thompson is called up, but not used once. The Yankees clinch early, as both the Blue Jays and Red Sox fail to assemble a team much different from their 2006 team.

October: Phil Hughes and Chien-Ming Wang lead the Yankees to a championship. Randy Johnson does not make the playoff roster, with the 4th starter slot taken by Jeff Karstens.

Season lines:

Phil Hughes - 24 starts, 174 innings, 3.63 ERA. 162 Ks, 46 BBs. Wins ROY.
Jeff Karstens - 31 starts, 184 innings, 4.31 ERA. 126 Ks, 52 BBs.
T.J. Beam - 42 games, 38 innings. 3.72 ERA. 37 Ks, 17 BBs.
J.B. Cox - 36 games, 37 innings. 3.42 ERA. 28 Ks, 12 BBs.

Press Conference

2006-10-10T11:52:00.000-04:00

Joe Torre's future will be announced at a press conference today at 1 PM.

Dont get too optmistic.

On to young pitching...

Paper Thin

2006-10-09T23:40:00.000-04:00

I really am an advocate against signing free agent pitchers in general. Sometimes there are good deals - see Mike Mussina. However, very often free agency is not a place to find good pitchers. Teams end up overpaying in both cash and years, and are often left with albatross contracts that hurt their pitching staff. In fact, it is tough to find a lot of good free agent signings over the past few years. The market simply is simply very hard to control for pitchers.

This year's crop is incredibly thin. I previously had thought that Mark Buerhle was a free agent (and would have been a good buy low candidate), but unfortunately Chicago has a team option on him.

Free agents worth naming:

Barry Zito
Jason Schmidt
Jamie Moyer
Gil Meche
Roger Clemens
Andy Pettitte
Mike Mussina*
B-K Kim
Cory Lidle
Greg Maddux
Woody Williams
Mark Mulder
Vicente Padilla
Randy Wolf

Yeah. That is one weak list. The only four truely effective pitchers on that list are Clemens, Mussina, Zito, and Schmitty. So if we want to upgrade via free agency, Zito and Schmitty are the only obvious that we possess. And you can get that 29 other teams are saying the same thing.

I would say that there is too much risk involved in choosing one of these pitchers. That leaves us two options: promote from within or bring a pitcher in via trade. The problem is, we don't have a lot of moveable trading chips. Trading young pitching for a pitcher doesn't make a lot of sense. On the field, we certainly aren't going to try to rid ourselves of a 23 year old hitting .340 at 2nd base. Pretty much everyone else is locked in to a no-trade or oversized contract.

Could Alex Rodriguez be our only trading chip? Maybe. Melky Cabrera certainly has value, although I am not sure how much. I suggested getting Ervin Santana and Mark Teahen or Arod the other day, and today I am going to amend that suggestion. Bartolo Colon was the (undeserving, but still good) Cy Young winner in 2005. He spent much of the 2006 season batting injury. Colon is owed 14 million in 2007. The 33 year old carries only a one year burden on his contract, and is has ace stuff. He is a buy-low candidate, which is one thing that I will be stressing throughout the offseason.

Could Colon potentially be thrown in to a deal for Alex Rodriguez to encourage the Angels to give up a guy like Brandon Wood or Howie Kendrick? Maybe. The salary relief will essentially cancel out Arod's contract for a year. The downside is that Colon's injury may delay his start to the season, and the Yankees have not had much luck with injury prone pitchers lately.

I could very well see a deal like this go down: Alex Rodriguez for Brandon Wood, Bartolo Colon, and Jeff Mathis. I think the Yankees would have to take it. I would prefer Ervin Santana (who I think could be a good middle of the rotation type starter) or even Weaver (who ain't going nowhere) .

A gamble? Yep.

Tomorrow I'll add on to this my projections for possible farmhands that could fill starting roles next season. Of course, my projections actually squat, considering that I am no PECOTA. It'll be fun though.

Hopefully by then we'll actually have some news on Torre.

Uneventful Day

2006-10-09T22:16:00.000-04:00

I really don't like speculation on matters which I really have no knowledge of. I distain ESPN when they talk about all these Joe Torre related things that in reality are concealed behind closed doors. So I am not going to speculate. For the record, it is my personal opinion that Torre will not be fired this offseason.

Some interesting quotes from Yankee players however should recieve attention.

Gary Sheffield is auditioning for a job in the post-Torre era.

An anonymous former Yankee blames Jeter.

George Steinbrenner released a non-statement.

Brian Cashman also has basically said "Who knows what will happen at this point", while Arod has said "I want to stay, but if they want me to go, I'll go".

Sounds like some changes are coming, or at least the discontent will not remain behind the scenes. Should be an interesting offseason.

I'll try to find the time to talk about the Yankee pitching staff soon. Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.

Ten Questions

2006-10-08T11:45:00.000-04:00

I know that you all expect me to talk a little more about Joe Torre right now. Problem is, we only have one sketchy source about his likely firing, and that source is the New York Daily News. For all we know, it could be journalistic speculation.

For now I'd like to take a look at ten important questions that the Yankees will face this offseason. I wil do my best to answer them.

1. Who will manage the team?

We don't know if it will be Joe Torre or not right now. Possible replacements would include Mazzili, Bowa, Pinella, or Giradi. I am hoping for Giradi, but Pinella or Bowa would not be bad choices. Both would resemble what the New Jersey Devils did in 2003 when they brought Pat Burns in to kick the team's ass.

2. Will Mike Mussina come back?

I think it all depends on the asking price. Mussina was damn good this season. He was one of the top 10 best pitchers in baseball. I think that Moose could be a real bargain at 1-2 years for 8 million a year. Any more than two years or 8 million per however would be too much. Could we really find a better pitcher for cheaper?

3. Will Gary Sheffield come back?

I don't think that he will. He performed poorly in the past two postseasons. He never showed much skill at 1st base or at the plate following his injury. He might be worth it soley for the sake of only needing to commit for one year until Eric Duncan or someone is ready. Still, I think that the Yankees take their draft picks on this one.

4. Will Alex Rodriguez come back?

I am going to tentatively say he will. If Piniella returns, Alex will have an ally in the clubhouse who will probably fight for him. Still, I am not sure if the long term interests of the club really should include Arod. He's a great player, but has played lousy defense at third base and has been a .285/.380/.520 hitter for two of his three years here. That is an excellent player, but overrated. I think that the Yankees could get significant value for Arod.

5. All right... then who would take Alexander the Great?

The two obvious teams that come to mind are the Chicago Cubs and the Angels. Both have the money to spend and could use a SS/3b. Arod has the advantage of not being as expensive as his contract. Right now, the Yankees are paying him 18 million of his 25. If the Yankees throw in 3m/year, he could be a relative bargain to a team, opening up more possibilities. The Dodgers, the Diamonbacks, the Mariners, the Phillies, the Giants, and the Astros immediately come to mind.

But who would play third base? I would suggest some sort of 3 way trade involving Kansas City. The Royals have both Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon. Teahen played excellent defense while hitting .290/.357/.517 this season (.318/.392/.582 since the All Star Break) in his age 24 season. Alex Gordon however could be even better. He is the consensus #1 prospect in baseball right now (Hughes is #3). The Royals are likely to either move Gordon to the outfield or trade Teahen. I would suggest some sort of trade involving Ervin Santana, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teahen, and some of the Angel's other prospects. I will likely be writing one or more large posts on Alex Rodriguez later this weekend.

6. Will the Yankees target a big name free agent starting pitcher?

I think they will, and I think that is a mistake. On the market are Mark Buerhle, Barry Zito, and Jason Schmidt. All three would require some big contracts. I think that if the Yankees decide to forego Mussina (which would probably be a mistake), they will surely target Zito. Depending upon the next two postseason series, Zito could command a 60+ million dollar contract over five years. He would improve the Yankee staff, but I'd be surprised if his ERA ends up under 3.80 in any of those years. Zito is a middle of the rotation innings eater. Buerhle had a terrible year. Jason had his strikeout rates and velocity dip following injury.

An interesting option would be Daisuke Matsuzaka. He'll cost a ton, but his "gyroball" is supposed to make him an ace. I don't trust pitchers coming from a 6 man rotation with a trick pitch. He could be very good, but will he be worh the 15 million dollars required via the posting system?

Great rotations are developed from within. The Braves did it. The dynasty Yankees did it. The 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox, and now the 2006 Athletics and Tigers are doing it. Pitchers are at their best before they reach the free agent market.

7. Will the Yankees try to include Carl Pavano in the equation?

I think they have to. Pavano is owed 20 million for the next two years. The Yankees have sufficient pitching depth to absorb a Pavano injury. I think that Pavano is capable of 200 innings of 4.00 ERA ball if healthy. But thats a big if.

8. Will Phil Hughes be in the rotation next year, or even in the organization?

I can't see the Yankees trading Hughes now. They may be tempted, but I just can't see it. Tyler Clippard may go somewhere, but Hughes will probably stay. Much of what Brian Cashman has said pointed toward Hughes starting in AAA for a short period of time in 2007, although Hughes himself has said that he will try to make the team out of Spring Training. Word is that Phil's changeup could use some work.

Personally, I'd start him in AAA. When someone gets injured or is ineffective, Hughes can be called up quickly. Hughes has two plus-plus pitches in his fastball and curveball, but he has been having some trouble throwing his change for strikes. If it becomes a third plus pitch, look for Hughes to blossom quickly.

9. What will the bullpen look like?

I'd say that Scott Proctor, Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, and Brian Bruney are pretty definate. You could probably add one of Darrell Rasner or Jeff Karstens to the mix. That is a solid bullpen. I think the Yankees will resist going to 12 pitchers again this year.

They might want to explore getting rid of Mike Myers. He wasn't that great this year, and really hurts the Yankees by taking up a roster spot which could be filled by a more flexible pitcher. Ray King is a free agent, and should be explored.

10. Will the Yankees contend next year?

I don't think that there is any question to this. The Yankees were the best team in baseball in 2006, during the regular season. The core group of Jeter, Mariano, Posada, Damon, Matsui, and Cano are better than any in baseball. The Red Sox and Blue Jays don't have a lot of hope considering the weak free agent market and lack of talented depth in the high minor league systems.

The Yankees can and should win a World Series soon. It all comes down to Brian Cashman and George Steinbrenner. The Red Sox made the mistake of trading away Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado, and Harvey Garcia for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and G. Mota. Guess what? Sanchez was better than Beckett and Ramirez was better than Lowell this season. Young talent wins a lot of games. Patience is a virtue.

Could it really be happening?

2006-10-08T10:06:00.000-04:00

The New York Daily News:

NEW YORK New York Yankees manager Joe Torre likely will be fired and replaced by Lou Piniella following another early exit from the baseball playoffs, the New York Daily News reported Sunday.

According to sources the Daily News did not identify, Torre is expected to be fired unless he resigns first — or team officials can talk owner George Steinbrenner out of making the move.

On Saturday, the Yankees were eliminated from the first round of the American League playoffs, losing to Detroit 8-3 in Game 4. It was the second straight year New York lost in the opening round.

The Yankees have won the World Series four times under Torre, most recently in 2000. They had a record US$200 million payroll this year and matched the New York Mets for the best record in the regular season.

The Yankees have made the playoffs in all 11 years that Torre has been their manager. They have won nine straight AL East titles.

Torre, 66, has one year and US$7 million left on his contract.

Piniella, 63, is a former Yankees star and managed them in 1986-87 and for most of 1988. He guided Cincinnati to the 1990 World Series title and later managed Seattle and Tampa Bay.

I'm not going to celebrate just yet. I think that Joe Girardi would be a better choice, but Piniella is a good manager.

It's over

2006-10-07T20:21:00.000-04:00

I really thought that this was our year. I thought that our combination of pitching, defense, and one of the best offenses in the game's history would be enough. But it was not. Who is to blame? A lot of people. Brian Cashman. Joe Torre. Randy Johnson. Jaret Wright. Alex Rodriguez. Gary Sheffield. Robby Cano.

There is a lot of blame to go around, that is for sure. I'm not going to play the blame game with the players. They performed poorly, as a whole. I am going to critisize Joe Torre and Brian Cashman, who don't have a 103 mph fastball as an excuse.

Jason Giambi should have been in this game. He's our best overall hitter. He's chews up right handed power pitchers. I really do not understand how Joe Torre can believe that Gary Sheffield would be better on either side of the ball than Giambi. Sheffield sucked at the position this year in his brief time there. In the games that I watched (1, 2, 4), Sheffield did not make at least five plays which an experienced first baseman would. In addition, Sheffield did exactly nothing with the bat.

Torre did not handle Arod correctly this series. Hit him 8th? 6th? We won 97 games with Alex Rodriguez batting 3, 4, or 5. Why all of the sudden change things? Torre was creating a self-fulfilling profesy.

Brian Cashman failed at creating a deep enough pitching staff for Torre to use. There are going to be a lot of changes this offseason. I think that we could be facing the real possibility of Alex Rodriguez not being in New York next year.

The offseason just got a little longer. I will be spending it talking about next year, reviewing any Yankee moves, and talking about the Yankee farm system. I sincerely hope that George Steinbrenner does not make any irrational decisions ala the 2004 offseason and set this team back signficantly. The future is bright, even if this year's outcome is not.

ALDS Game 3 @ Detroit

2006-10-06T12:27:00.000-04:00

Unfortunately, I will most likely be unable to watch Kenny Rogers get bombed tonight. It should be an interesting game. I have this strangely optimistic feeling with Randy Johnson.

Hopefully I'm right. Or we just win a 10-9 slugfest. Either way, this is a pretty important game.

Edit:

btw, in 19 AB, Alex Rodriguez hit .525/.625/1.421 (10 hits, 5 HR).

Come on Arod!

ALDS Game 2 vs Detroit

2006-10-05T21:47:00.000-04:00

If we lose this series, this will be looked back as the game which we should have won.

Justin Verlander was not pitching well to begin this game. His 10 days of rest were showing up as rust. We put 5 runners on between the two innings, forcing Verlander to throw 40+ pitches. Unfortunately, we were unable to score.

Gary Sheffield is definately the dog of this game. He missed two catches that an average first baseman would have gotten. He killed a rally with a GIDP, and struck out in big spots twice.

I can't fault the Yankee hitters in general today. Do we really expect anyone to hit up Zumaya, throwing 103 with perfect location? Todd Jones somehow decided that he was really Curt Schilling today, throwing crazy strike after strike. I wouldn't count on Jones being that effective in future outings.

In the end, we got barely edged out in the later innings of a close game. The Yankees are going to have to beat up on one of Kenny Rogers or Jeremy Bonderman in the next few days. Considering the strength of our lineup, I wouldn't worry too much.

Rainout

2006-10-04T23:18:00.000-04:00

Tonight's game will be played tomorrow. It's going to piss off a lot of ticket holders who have to work, but the Yankees can't control the rain.

Who does the rainout help? I would say that it's a mixed bag. The Yankees get a chance to give a day of rest to Proctor, Farnsworth, and (most importantly) Rivera. The Tigers did not pitch Zumaya, Rodney, or Jones yesterday, so they don't get as much utility to the rainout.

On the other hand, Mike Mussina is not one who likes his routine changed. The extra day of rest could throw him off mentally. I don't see Verlander having the same problem.

ALDS Game 1 vs Detroit

2006-10-03T23:52:00.000-04:00

Chien Ming Wang has a huge advantage over a lot of other heavy groundball pitchers out there. Wang's sinker sucked today. It barely moved half the time. He couldn't locate it. But when Wang realized this, he still had his 95-96 mph fastball to use.

He battled his way through to the 7th inning, when Joe Torre made his first mistake of the playoffs. He tried to "get cute" in the words of Tim McCarver, attempting to get the final out of the inning (while Wang was cruising) with Mike Myers. Well Myers gave up the home run, and Torre had to use Scott Proctor to clean up. Proctor made everyone nervous, but got out of the inning.

The consequence? Enter Kyle Farnsworth. Farnsworth was able to get through the inning allowing only a walk, but his control was far from good. A few breaks don't go our way and Joe Torre has no way to get out of a Farnsworth jam. Proctor and Myers are out of the game. Rivera is being limited to one inning a game. What are his options? Brian Bruney, maybe. But more likely, we would have seen Ron Villone in the game.

Despite throwing very well, Robertson just couldn't take the Yankee lineup. Giambi and Abreu hit some balls which they had no business hitting. Derek Jeter was unstoppable. Damon flashed some speed, getting on base.

You can try, but you won't stop them. Mike Mussina tomorrow.

Keys to the Series

2006-10-03T17:32:00.000-04:00

Joe Torre has a relatively easy job. He's not going to have too make too many tough decisions this postseason. His handling of the middle relief is really the only concern for Yankee fans.

Kyle Farnsworth is dangerous. He is very inconsistent. Torre needs to be ready to pull Farnsworth in favor of Mariano Rivera or Mike Myers (or Proctor) at the first sign of trouble. Farnsworth can be dominating, but he can also be vunerable.

Scott Proctor should be fairly solid. He finished the year very strong, with a 1.76 ERA. He could definately benefit from some creative use of Mike Myers, though with the righty-heavy Detroit lineup, that shouldn't be much of an issue. Proctor may see some 2+ innings appearances if things go wrong. If I am Joe Torre, I use Proctor over Farnsworth in the 8th inning.

Brian Bruney is an interesting fellow. By adding another strong righty to the pen, he makes Scott Proctor and Kyle Farnsworth all the more effective (because there is another righty to take over if Mike Myers is brought in to the game, and because he can take an inning or two early in the game). If we need a strikeout to get out of a jam, he's probably the best option. I wouldn't put him in to a lot of 1 run games, mostly due to his wildness. Bruney needs his fastball to be 96-97 instead of 93-94 in order to prosper.

Ron Villone shouldn't see a meaningful inning. Period. He may still have some extreme LOOGY skills left in his arm, but that is about it. Against the righty-heavy Detroit lineup, we better hope that Villone sees little to no playing time.

Cory Lidle could actually be very good out of the bullpen. He can go innings, but just as importantly he is very tough on right handed batters. If Jaret Wright or Randy Johnson can't make it to the 6th inning, Lidle could save our ass.

What else for Torre? Remember Bill Buckner. With a late lead, Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui should be out of the game. Don't pinch hit Bernie against a right handed pitcher, use Melky instead. Don't call for too many sacrifice bunts.

Thats about it. Torre, please prove me wrong. Please don't be a terrible manager. You always seem to manage best when you finally need to in order to survive.

Yankees in 3.

Bullpens, Bench, and Ballparks

2006-10-03T11:51:00.000-04:00

Time to finish this set of analysis up.

The Closer: Mariano Rivera vs Todd Jones

This isn't even worth an explanation. Todd Jones is baby David going up against Goliath.

Massive Edge: Yankees

Setup: Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor vs Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya

Rodney and Proctor are pretty much the same pitcher. Proctor pitched a little more this year, but basically performed the same as Rodney. Farnsworth and Zumaya are both very interesting pitchers. Both pitchers are among the hardest throwers in the game. They both throw power sliders. The difference however has been that Zumaya was probably the best setup man in the majors this year while Farnsworth was very average. When I talk about keys to Joe Torre's game, Farnsworth will be a major issue.

Edge: Detroit

Primary LOOGY: Mike Myers vs Jamie Walker

Two more very similar pitchers. Both pitchers are excellent at destroying lefties. Both pitchers get smacked around by right handed batters. That said, Detroit holds a decidedly edge here for one reason: The they don't have any lefties! Mike Myers really only may come in to face Curtis Granderson or Sean Casey in a big spot. Jamie Walker will definately see some at bats against Giambi, Matsui, or Cano this series.

Edge: Detroit (purely out of utility)

The Back end: Brian Bruney, Cory Lidle, and Ron Villone vs Zach Miner, Jason Grilli, and Wilfredo Ledezma

This is a hard one to call. The Yankees have the best pitcher of the bunch in Brian Bruney. Miner and Lidle cancel each other out in long relief, and Villone loses out against Grilli. Grilli is an average right handed reliever who shouldn't end up in any meaningful innings, and hopefully neither should villone. Bruney on the other hand may see significant time in 6th or even 7th inning duty.

Edge: Yankees (out of Bruney)

Outfield Bench: Melky Cabrera and Bernie Williams vs Marcus Thames/Craig Monroe and Alexis Gomez

Marcus Thames is the best player of this bunch. That said, he may not be available to play quickly enough and when he does will start most of the games in the outfield. Craig Monroe is an overrated masher who makes outs like crazy. Alexis Gomez is a glove man who only hit .272/.318/.388 (aka, he's Bubba Crosby). Bernie Williams has proven to be an excellent hitter against left handed batters this season (and could see some very rare at bats in later innings). Melky Cabrera can get on base very well, and will likely see a lot of time as a defensive replacement for Hideki Matsui.

Edge: Yankees (especially when Monroe is on the bench)

Infield Bench: Miguel Cairo, Andy Phillips, and Sal Fasano vs Neifi Perez, Omar Infante, and Vance Wilson

I don't know a single other pair of major league teams to have so little hitting ability on their infield bench. All six players here can play excellent defense, but the Yankees hold the big advantage in that the chance of Andy Phillips or Miguel Cairo seeing significant at bats are significantly low. Detroit may need to mix and match their players in later innings, resulting in Neifi Perez coming into a big spot. Andy Phillips will be very important in replacing Gary Sheffield at 1st base.

Edge: Yankees (The players themselves are a wash, but the Yankees won't need to use these guys)

Next up, keys to Joe Torre's game.

Pitching Matchups

2006-10-02T12:50:00.000-04:00

Position player vs position player isn't really telling of a team's chances in a postseason series. It's good to know, but the pitching is where matchups get important. The Tigers have intelligently arrayed their staff in this upcoming series, so let's take a look at what Joe Torre has in store.

Game 1: Nate Robertson vs Chien-Ming Wang

If there is any one Detroit pitcher to pick against the Yankees, it's Nate Robertson. He's a left handed pitcher, and a decent one at that. He pitched twice against New York during the season, going 8.2 and 7.0 innings while allowing 6 and 2 earned runs respectively. Despite the six earned runs (which came late), it is safe to say that Robertson effectively handled the Yankees. At least he won't be a pushover. He posted an ERA of 3.84 and 137 Ks in 208 innings. I'd say that he keeps the Tigers in the game.

The Yankees counter with Chien-Ming Wang. Detroit is an excellent team for Wang to face. They swing early and often. They are dominated with right handed hitters. They try to hit fly balls. They don't take walks. This is exactly the kind of team that Wang has shown to tear through this season. To be fair, Wang stunk in his first start against Detroit (4 innings, 5 ER), but absolutely dominated in his second (7.2 innings, zero earned runs, just 3 hits allowed). I'm willing to bet that Wang easily handles Detroit.

Edge: Yankees

Game 2: Mike Mussina vs Justin Verlander

If there are two more diametrically different pitchers matching up this postseason, I'm not aware of them. Verlander broke out in a big way this season, and is a prime reason as to why the Tigers turned their franchise around. That said, I wouldn't bet on him in this game. Verlander has a lot going against him. He does not handle left handed hitters well (.279/.343/.462 vs .253/.313/.369) compared to right handed hitters, has slowed down in August and September (6.83 and 4.82 ERAs), and got roughed up by the Yankees in his only outing against them (5 IP, 6 ER). 100 MPH heat really tires that arm out.

100 MPH heat? Yeah right, we'll take the knuckle curve. Moose is coming off his best season since 2003 (the last time that the Yankees made the World Series), and is facing exactly the right lineup for his abilities. The Tigers love the swing, and Moose will certainly take advantage of that. Mussina faced Detroit only once this year, and it was probably his best start of the year (Complete game, no earned runs, just six hits allowed on 101 pitches, including one fiery scream at Joe Torre). Expect big things out of a big game pitcher.

Edge: Yankees (big time)

Game 3: Randy Johnson vs Kenny Rogers

Too bad it's not 1996 all over again. Kenny Rogers has actually been a pretty good pitcher over the past two years. He's been kind of a Wang-lite, striking out few and getting groundballs. He didn't face the Yankees at all this season. That said, we all remember Kenny Roger's postseason blunders. I don't know what to expect of Rogers.

Speaking of uncertainty... Randy Johnson takes the mound for the Yankees in Game 3. He hasn't been bad against Detroit this season (6.0/8.0 IP and 0/4 ER allowed), but his back may just hold him back again. This absolutely reeks of Kevin Brown in 2004 to me. I'm worried.

Edge: Tigers (But expect a slugfest)

Game 4: Jaret Wright vs Jeremy Bonderman

We've expected a lot from Bonderman for a long time now. He has fantastic strikeout ability, but never really managed to put his other skills together. In his best season yet, the 24 year old posted a 4.08 ERA. He blew the last start of the season, eventually resulting in the Tigers losing the division to the Twins. Bonderman had mixed results in two starts against the Yankees (7.1/5.1 IP, 4 ER both times). Not terrible, but nothing that really inspires confidence. Still, he certainly has the ability to be dominating. Personally, I've never been to impressed with the guy.

Of course, we have the less impressive Jaret Wright pitching Game 4. Wright was by no means horrible this season, but I don't know if I would call him more than average. He posted a 4.49 ERA in 140.1 innings. Much like Rogers, Wright has relied upon the groundball more than the strikeout as he ages. Wright actually remarkably was able to limit the home run (just 10 all year) as well as any starter in the game. Besides that, he has few strengths. The swing-for-the-fences-every-pitch nature of Detroit's lineup may work in Wright's favor, but more than 6 innings is not going to happen.

Edge: Tigers

Bullpens come next.

Lots of Predictions

2006-10-02T12:27:00.000-04:00

Before I continue on to my opinion of the pitching matchups between New York and Detroit, I'd like to address some ridiculous notions that I have been hearing from baseball pundits all around. I'm not going to quote anything word for word, as a lot of this comes from pay sites, but some things that I've read recently. I don't know whether to attribute this to poor journalism or just anti-Yankee bias.

1. Jorge Posada is a terrible catcher. The Tigers are going to run all over him (despite throwing out 38% of baserunners this season)

2. Hideki Matsui's stroke isn't back yet. The Tigers are going to blow fastballs by him. (Despite batting .412/.484/.608 since returning)

3. Scott Proctor is not only worn out, but a shakey bridge to Mariano Rivera (despite being one of the AL's most valued and durable relievers this season and finishing the season with an ERA of 1.76 in September.

4. The Yankees can't play defense... at all (Despite finishing the season with a DER of of .7108, second among AL playoff teams. Detroit is in first)

5. The Yankees play a station to station game, which won't work in the playoffs (Despite the baserunning talents of Jeter, Damon, Arod, and Abreu, not to mention speed from Cano, Matsui, Sheffield and pretty much the entire bench)

6. The Yankee starting pitching is vastly inferior to the rest of the AL teams (Despite having 2 of the top ten pitchers in the AL, and better 3/4 starters than the Twins or Athletics)

7. Billy Wagner is going to be better than Mariano Rivera (Do I need to even start on this one?)

*sigh*. Time to start on those pitching matchups.

Grrr. Rar. Tigers

2006-10-01T17:58:00.000-04:00

If a feat similar to the New Jersey Devils last year in the NHL, the Twins came from behind to secure the AL Central on the last day of the season. Detroit fell in 12 innings to the little Royals.

What does this mean? It means that the Yankees don't have to face Johan Santana in a 5 game series! I for one was surprised by this to the extent that I already typed up a series preview against Minnesota.

Now that I have something new to talk about, let's take a look at this matchup. The Yankees won the season series against Detroit 6-2, including three of four games in Detroit.

1st Base: Gary Sheffield vs Sean Casey

The Yankees have a huge edge at this position. Sean Casey is a sub-.800 OPS hitter this year. I don't doubt that Casey will outplay Sheffield on defense, but we're going to come up big in this matchup.

Edge: Yankees

2nd Base: Robinson Cano vs Placido Polanco

Entering the year, the Tigers were expected big things from their 2005 team MVP. A season later, they are still hoping that he returns ot form. Polanco was hurt by injuries all season which slowed both his offensive and defensive game. Even if he had both back, he wouldn't be able to compete with Cano. Robby Cano is the best 2b in the game, without a doubt.

Edge: Yankees

Shortstop: Derek Jeter vs JCarlos Guillen

Carlos Guillen is a terrific player. He batted .317/.398/.518 this year, and would be in the debate for MVP during the average major league season. He played excellent defense. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they are running in to the only player at shortstop better than Carlos Guillen. Derek Jeter is a legit MVP candidate and one hell of a hitter. We'll see if his postseason heroics continue.

Edge: Yankees (but not by a whole lot)

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez vs Brandon Inge

Brandon Inge is a one of the best defensive 3b in the game. He's an excellent athlete. That said, he can't bat alongside Alex Rodriguez. Arod may have had a bad year, but he's still far and away the AL's best third baseman. Good defense or not, Inge batted just .254/.315/.461.

Edge: Yankees (by a whole lot)

Catcher: Jorge Posada vs Ivan Rodriguez

Pudge Rodriguez is going to the hall of fame. Jorge Posada may just be making a similar case for the Hall if he keeps it up, but he's no I-Rod. That said, Posada's bat right now is so clearly superior to Pudge's that I have to give it to him. I-Rod has done his usual thing in terms of defense behind the plate, but his hitting skills are degrading with age. The old SABR law of "Power and Patience age better than average" shows why Posada has retained his effectiveness while Pudge is losing it.

Edge: Yankees

Left Field: Hideki Matsui vs Craig Monroe

Craig Monroe is possibly the most overrated left fielder in the game. If you hear the pundits on ESPN talk about him, you'd think that he was vintage Magglio Ordonez. The guy hits for power, but that's about it. He posted an OBP of .301 this season, marking him as a modern day Tony Batista. 28 home runs can only go so far. Despite the injury, Hideki finished this season batting an incredible .302/.393/.494. He has shown that his bat is as good as ever (maybe better, thanks to the rest and training he got in while injured). He was a special player in 2004. Maybe we'll see it this postseason.

Edge: Yankees (And a huge one)

Centerfield: Johnny Damon vs Curtis Granderson

Granderson is a fine player. He batted .262/.336/.442 while playing a fine centerfield. Despite a nasty September slump (Damon entered the month as the Yankee's second best player batting .300/.371/.515, but batted .205/.286/.307 in September), I am going to give this one to Damon. Unless he is hiding some sort of injury, Damon is certainly capable to turning it back up when the lights are brighter. It is said that being strong up the middle of the field is key to success, and the Yankees are definately proud of their centerfielder.

Edge: Yankees (Even though Damon's slump worries me)

Right Field: Bobby Abreu vs Magglio Ordonez

Ordonez never really recovered from his knee surgery. He's been able to play this year, but his hitting has been incredibly average (.298/.347/.474). Bobby Abreu on the other hand has been one of the best since switching leagues, batting .330/.419/.507. The monkey-man hasn't made the playoffs since his rookie year with the Astros, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts.

Edge: Yankees (Big time!)

Designated Hitter: Jason Giambi vs Omar Infante / Marcus Thames

I was really worried about Jason Giambi until a few days ago. His wrists were bothering him so badly that he couldn't drive the ball. He batted .192 in September, although he took enough walks to post a .364 OBP. Giambi has been very streaky this year, but I would not be at all surprised if a new streak starts in October. His 3-5 night against the O's gave me that confidence. He might end up sitting against left handers. Thames is a fine player, but he can't hold a candle to Giambi.

Edge: Yankees

I'll do the pitching and benches later tonight.

Nothing left to play for

2006-09-30T21:05:00.000-04:00

It's official. The Yankees have done everything that they possibly could. They have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

All that is left is to play the games.

Bernie Williams will be the final day manager tomorrow. Bernie may be experiencing his last season as a Yankee. He ends a fantastic career which one day may be looked back upon as hall of fame worthy. He may not be Mantle or DiMaggio, but he will be a major symbol of this age of Yankee glory.

Let's hope he goes out on top. With a ring.

Pity the Mets

2006-09-29T07:26:00.000-04:00

I feel for the Mets (they lost Pedro for those of you who didn't hear). I really do.

But there is a reason why no one wanted to give Pedro four years.

On a side note, I wouldn't get into an uproar over the Yankees being 1 hit tonight. There is a reason why Danny Cabrera is a top sleeper pick year after year. He has absolutely nasty stuff, but rarely can turn it on. He turned it on yesterday.

I wonder if Darrell Rasner is still in the looks for a postseason roster spot after his terrible start. I really hope that one of Rasner or Karstens makes it. We may need some innings, and Ron Villone isn't the answer.

Apology

2006-09-27T12:53:00.000-04:00

I haven't really posted a lot of astute commentary lately. Unfortunately, I am hampered in two ways. First off, it gets annoying to have to type "Ron Villone, Scott Proctor overused, Ron Villone, Brian Bruney overused, Ron Villone..." after every game.

Second, my college's internet connection has been very flittery, which hurts my ability to watch games on mlb.tv. I can't stream video because the connection is so bad. Hopefully that changes before the playoffs.

Not much is happening in Yankee world. Over the offseason, I intend to focus on individual prospect profiles (in addition to all the free agent signings and things). In a week, I'll have the playoffs to write about. For now? Enjoy watching the young kids play.

By the way, it's almost deadline time in most states to register to vote. I guess this is a little reminder to all those who are not registered. Policy is determined by those who participate.

Good day.

Will the Bats Be Enough?

2006-09-26T17:34:00.000-04:00

Steve Lombardi over at WasWatching.com has been openly very worried about the Yankee pitching situation. Today, he made a very astute observation:

Secondly, someone on the Yankees staff is going to have to pull a "Jim Beattie 1978" - meaning someone who has not been a huge factor this season, for the most part, is going to have to step up in the post-season and make big pitching contributions in at least two games.

I agree with him - slightly. Pitching is so incredibly important in the playoffs. But I ask the question - can our offense overcome our 3-4 starters?

Mussina and Wang are about as good as any team has in terms of a 1-2 punch this postseason. They are both tied in 5th place in ERA in the AL with 3.57. Only Santana has been better this season than those two (in terms of postseason starters), and the Twins have to throw out junk for game 2.

Our 3-4 in Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright is weak. Very weak. But we still have that offense.

Can Damon-Jeter-Abreu-Arod-Giambi-Sheffield-Matsui-Posada-Cano be beat? I mean... our #9 hitter right there is hitting .342! If we can make it past the 1st round crapshoot... the rest of the majors is going to have a hard time holding them back. Regardless if Randy Johnson is healthy or not. Having Mariano Rivera doesn't suck either.

Disgusting

2006-09-25T13:30:00.000-04:00

ESPN decided to throw up some junk today.

Is this what sports journalism is coming to? I thank the world for sports blogs, and not just because I write a small one. I can click on my folder of 15 blogs and get the latest news from real analysts. This crap from ESPN is not even funny.

Meltdown

2006-09-24T17:31:00.000-04:00

It was pretty apparant today that the lower end of our bullpen is not a strength. Mariano Rivera. Scott Proctor. Mike Myers. And in some cases, Kyle Farnsworth. They are strengths.

Ron Villone? Not a strength. Ron Villone should not be on the postseason roster. He is useless. He has been completely unable to get runners out over the past month. It will be the utter failing of Joe Torre to put Villone on that roster.

So who should replace him?

We currently look to commit Mariano, Farns, Myers, Proctor and Bruney to 7 11 man playoff bullpen. That leaves two spots for Karstens, Rasner, Villone and Lidle. I think that Lidle's years will put him on the roster, leaving Darrell Rasner to take Villone's place.

Villone is a lefty. However, at this point in his career, his southpaw status has not found him success on the mound. He will be the Yankee's undoing if allowed on the postseason roster.

Comparing the Playoff Teams: Position Players

2006-09-18T23:27:00.000-04:00

This is the first of a two part series where I will do a quick and dirty analysis of the four current playoff teams (Detroit, New York, Minnesota, Oakland) in the American League. At present, it seems like these four have their races locked up. I will rank each position and list their VORP.

First Base

1. Justin Morneau (Minnesota) 50.4 VORP
2. Jason Giambi (New York) 45.7 VORP
3. Nick Swisher (Oakland) 23 VORP
4. Sean Casey / Chris Shelton / Whomever (Detroit) 5 VORP

Pretty straight forward here. The Yankees and Twins have a big edge at the big position. Strangely, the National League is much stronger in this department, with Pujols, Howard, Berkman, Delgado, and others. The Yankees need Jason Giambi to be himself for the playoffs, and overcome his wrist injury.

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano (New York) 38.9 VORP
2. Luis Castillo (Minnesota) 18.4 VORP
3. Mark Ellis (Oakland) 5.6 VORP
4. Omar Infante / Placido Polanco (Detroit) ~8 VORP

I put Ellis over the Detroit duo purely out of defense. Ellis may be the best defensive 2nd baseman in the American League. The Yankees may have their biggest edge at this position. Especially considering that Cano not only missed a month and a half but also didn't start hitting like a Monster until June.

Shortstop

1. Derek Jeter (New York) 74 VORP (leads all playoff teams)
2. Carlos Guillen (Detroit) 59 VORP
3. Jason Barlett (Minnesota) 20 VORP
4. Marco Scutaro (Oakland) 6.1 VORP

Another great position for the Yankees. He's the MVP, and he is damn good. We have a 7 win advantage over Oakland at shortstop! Damn, how Bobby Crosby has fallen.

Third Base

1. Alex Rodriguez (New York) 44 VORP
2. Eric Chavez (Oakland) 12 VORP
3. Nick Punto (Minnesota) 14 VORP
4. Brandon Inge (Detroit) 7.8 VORP

I cannot list Eric Chavez below Nick Punto. After a really hot start, Chavez has really looked bad. Really bad. But his defense is still Eric Chavez-like and he has some real power potential when he is on. Still, the Yankees hold another commanding edge here... with even more potential. Interestingly, all four of these guys (all right... the three besides Arod) are absolutely stellar defenders.

Catcher

1. Joe Mauer (Minnesota) 60 VORP
2. Jorge Posada (New York) 33.9 VORP
3. Pudge Rodriguez (Detroit) 16 VORP
4. Jason Kendall (Oakland) 11.7 VORP

In addition to being four of the more offensively valueable catchers in the American League, all four of these guys deserve a gold glove. Minnesota probably holds one of the two real advantages at a position over the Yankees, and that's not a knock on Jorge Posada. Joe Mauer having a season to rival some of Piazza's, Dickey's, and Yogi's.

Right Field

1. Bobby Abreu (New York) 41 VORP
2. Matt Cuddyer (Minnesota) 31 VORP
3. Milton Bradley (Oakland) 13 VORP - Limited time
4. Magglio Ordonez (Detroit) 20 VORP

Magglio Ordonez has been batting sub-.200 for quite some time now. The Tigers have to be regretting that stupid little contract. Bobby Abreu was one hell of a pickup. Bernie Williams has a VORP of 10 right now.

Centerfield

1. Johnny Damon (New York 44 VORP
2. Torri Hunter (Minnesota) 25 VORP
3. Curtis Granderson (Detroit) 20 VORP
4. Mark Kotsay (Oakland) 7.6 VORP

Boy, Kotsay was a budding star a few years ago. His offense and defense have been really hurt by (I believe) back problems. Glad the Yankees didn't trade for him now? I should be the first to admit that I wanted Kotsay over Damon. Damon has certainly earned his pay this season, being roughly equal to Alex Rodriguez in value. Hopefully he'll strut his stuff in the postseason.

Left Field

1. Marcus Thames / Craig Monroe (Detroit) 19 / 9 VORP
2. Jay Payton (Oakland) 10 VORP
3. Melky Cabrera (New York) 10 VORP
4. Who the hell knows (Minnesota) 0 VORP

I have to give the nod to Payton over Cabrera purely because of defense. Oakland has three bonafide centerfielders playing the three outfield positions, and Payton is no slouch. I'll take Melky next year though.

Designated Hitter

1. Frank Thomas (Oakland) 45 VORP
2. Hideki Matsui / Gary Sheffield / Bernie Willaims (New York) ??? VORP ~30
3. Marcus Thames / Craig Monroe (Detroit) 19 / 9 VORP
4. Phil Nevin? (Minnesota) 0 VORP

Minnesota and Detroit really feel the lack of a 9th hitter in the lineup. We really don't know what we will get out of our DH this postseason, but we can't expect better than Frank Thomas. Buy low worked out well this time. Thomas may be the best overall hitter entering the playoffs. Too bad he can't do more than truffle shuffle to 1st base or around the bases.

Totals:

New York Yankees (5 1st place, 3 2nd place, 1 3rd place) 331.6 VORP
Minnesota (2 1st place, 3 2nd place, 2 3rd place, 2 4th place) 218.8 VORP
Detroit (1 1st place, 1 2nd place, 2 3rd place, 3 4th place) 163 VORP
Oakland (1 1st place, 2 2nd place, 3 3rd place, 3 4th place) (134 VORP)

Looking at these numbers, it's hard to imagine the Tigers or Athletics getting much support at all from their position players throughout the playoffs. Luckily, they both have great pitching staffs. Still, the overall Yankee superiority here is absolutely amazing. We have huge advantages at 2b, 3b, SS, RF and CF. The other positions aren't bad either.

Now to see how the pitching staffs shape up... tomorrow. Good night.

3 of 4

2006-09-18T12:00:00.000-04:00

This weekend sucked. It sucked because we lost 3 of 4 games against the Red Sox. I'm going to do my thing and blame Joe Torre, yet I must acknowledge the terrible spot he was put in. Blame the two rainouts. Torre handled them about as poorly as you could, but this weekend makes him look worse.

At 1:05 Saterday, the Yankees kicked off a marathon 4 games in 36 hours. It was hell. We all know beforehand that barring a complete game from Randy and Wang, Sunday was going to be one hell of a pieced together day. With an 11.5 game lead, Torre had a great opportunity:

Don't give a shit.

Although we were facing the rival Red Sox, these games were 100% meaningless. Joe Torre had the opportunity to pitch his big guns only once or twice during these four games and let Sean Henn, Octavio Dotel, Jose Veras and T.J. Beam take the brunt of the damage. What did he do?

The Yankee bullpen pitched 13.1 innings during this series. Brian Bruney pitched two. Scott Proctor pitched three. Ron Villone pitched 2.1. Farnsworth pitched two. Myers pitched two.

Beam appeared once but did not get an out (he clearly needs more time in the minors). Dotel pitched just one inning. Veras pitched just one. Sean Henn didn't even get in to a game!

The result? Our bullpen is taxed beyond belief. We're going to rely on Rasner to go some innings today, because there is no one to take the ball for him.

There is one advantage however of playing so many games in so little time. Torre can now set the postseason rotation however he wishes. However, it also screws up the Yankee pitching rotation. We won't have any starter ready to go on Wednesday.

Possibilies include Villone, Henn, Lidle (who is currently injured), and one more. I know it's a major long shot, but Phil Hughes is currently on the 40 man roster. It won't happen because he stopped throwing two weeks ago... but you never know.

I'm betting on Lidle.

Ron Villone

2006-09-17T16:44:00.000-04:00

Paul Quantrill. Steve Karsay. Tom Gordon. Ron Villone.

What do they all have in common? They pitched really well, so Joe Torre used them too much and ruined their arms.

Earlier this season, I complained that Torre was only using Villone in blowout situations. He needed to use Villone in more important situations, over some of the poorer Yankee relievers like Tanyon Sturtze. Torre took awhile, but eventually decided that Villone's sub-2.50 ERA pointed to good things. Unfortunately, Torre does nothing in moderation.

Things started to unravel one month ago today. Villone was among the best relievers in baseball, pitching over 60 innings with a 2.23 ERA. Villone came in and gave up two runs in two innings, throwing 42 pitches against Baltimore. Including that appearance, Villone would then throw a total of 114 over the next three days. He would never be the same.

Since that 42 pitch outing, Villone has pitched just 12 innings, giving up 19 earned runs. His ERA has risen to 4.50. He had given up just 16 earned runs prior to that outing all year.

It's official. Ron Villone's arm is now completely useless. Good job Torre. We have lost an effective lefty weapon in the playoffs. If Jaret Wright goes 5 innings and the game is tied in Game 4 of the ALCS, we no longer have an effective 2 innings in Ron Villone. But he will be on the postseason roster... which a role just large enough to cause major problems for the Yankees.