Saturday, October 28, 2006

Birds Win

Baseball is an inherently unpredictable game. A level of parity exists in the sport that does not exist in the NBA or NFL. There is a strong level of parity in the NHL, but the best team still wins the vast majority of the time. Baseball is unique in that the difference between the best team and the worst team is about 20% in winning percentage.

I predicted every single playoff series wrong. I expected the Dodgers and Padres to beat the Mets and Cardinals, and then predicted a Mets victory in 6 games. I predicted a Yankee sweep of the Tigers and a Twins victory in 4 over the Athletics, and then I predicted the Athletics to win a dramatic game 7 against the Tigers. Even worse, I predicted a total domination series for the Tigers against the Cardinals, barely allowing a run in four games.

But things happened. Role players excelled. Pitchers were cracked. In the end, the Cardinals played significantly better than expected, and the Tigers gave them the opportunity to do so. I will wonder for a long time whether or not the long layoff killed the Tiger's momentum.

The offseason has officially begun. In 13 days, the free agents hit the market.