5/16 Graph
This graph measures each team's chance of winning a single game at each out. As you can see, the Rangers enjoyed a 99% winning percentage after Chacon left, but the tide turned on Derek Jeter's home run. Jorge had the biggest night, turning an ~85% chance at a Ranger win into a Yankee victory with one swing. (click to enlarge)
Courtesy of FanGraphs.com
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