Monday, April 24, 2006

WBC and Pitching - Part 2

Ok, in my previous installment of the WBC and Pitching analysis, I looked at every pitcher who went to the WBC. I rated them based on how they began their season, based on being better or worse than past performance.

This time, I took a look at every starting pitcher who qualifies for the ERA title in the major leagues. Because of the size of the undertaking - 79 pitchers - I won't be posting the entire table here. If you want the spreadsheet, I would be more than happy to email it to anyone.

So, the results:

Of the 79 pitchers I looked at:

  • 21 (26.5%) Exceeded expectations
  • 29 (36.7%) Performed as expected
  • 29 (36.7%) Performed under what is expected

(note: I added Tony Armas, who exceeded expectations, to the WBC set of data, raising the rate of WBC pitchers exceeding expectations to 16%)

So, to conclude:

  • Of the 103 pitchers who qualify for the ERA title, 24 went to the WBC
  • A pitcher who went to the WBC is 10% less likely to be doing well, and 10% more likely to be performing poorly.
  • Of the 42 pitchers who are struggling, 31% went to the WBC.
  • If no pitchers went to the WBC, and trends existed at the same rate of non-WBC pitchers, 37 pitchers would be struggling.
  • If no pitchers went to the WBC, 27 pitchers would be exceeding expectations, two more.
  • Roughly the same amount of WBC and non-WBC pitchers are performing as expected

Looking at these numbers, it is pretty clear that although the WBC did have an impact on pitchers who went to the tournament; it had a very small impact upon run scoring throughout the league. Some other factor is at work to cause of the offensive outburst.